tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61096090796024459462024-03-17T09:41:06.526+00:00A Mid-East JournalA journal charting events in the Middle East and beyond concerning the eventual resolution of the Israel-Palestinian situation.Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.comBlogger843125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-62094472070115327692024-03-11T05:34:00.001+00:002024-03-11T05:42:51.217+00:00Iran’s take on democracy<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 11 March 2024 </i></b></span> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcfGsrifUchWfuA624jJXInccIa8SDyfCiORa9iFgMwjnTM5BFd-KF8QttRsetzHWcDU8e_CEwPAarva5JqmpX2JOYmoFj5iggZGBg_izDvftuc7IC45Nn6qyGezjzqrmBbyxARHiDZ7SOGL9Bk1iRt93b9sCN7hEIuXvsZOb7erty1BS3oJCtmYqA_kAI/s686/Raisi%20votes%202024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="686" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcfGsrifUchWfuA624jJXInccIa8SDyfCiORa9iFgMwjnTM5BFd-KF8QttRsetzHWcDU8e_CEwPAarva5JqmpX2JOYmoFj5iggZGBg_izDvftuc7IC45Nn6qyGezjzqrmBbyxARHiDZ7SOGL9Bk1iRt93b9sCN7hEIuXvsZOb7erty1BS3oJCtmYqA_kAI/w549-h358/Raisi%20votes%202024.jpg" width="549" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">National elections were held in Iran
on March 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The results were
underwhelming. It took three days for the electoral authorities to count the
votes and consider the results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On March
4 Interior M</span>inister Ahmad Vahidi told a news conference in Tehran that
of Iran’s 61 million eligible voters, only some 25 million had deigned to
participate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The resultant turnout of
41% would be the lowest ever recorded in post-revolution Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Even so, the BBC
published comments from voters skeptical<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>of the official announcement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One
said: "It's not the real result."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Another woman declared<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“People
believe it's actually less than 41%."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When asked what she thought the true turnout had been, she said comments
on Instagram suggested as low as 20%. "Some even say 15%," she added.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Some experts agreed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> “The real turnout is likely lower,” wrote Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, “although it is impossible to know at this stage.” The Stimson Center, while unconvinced, was even more circumspect. “Due to press and media censorship,” it commented, “as well as the absence of independent observers, it is challenging to verify the authenticity of these statistics.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The poll was held to
elect the 290 members of the national parliament, the Majles, and the 88
clerics who make up the Assembly of Experts, composed exclusively of male
Islamic scholars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each member of the
Assembly will sit for a term of eight years and, should the occasion arise, be
tasked with selecting the country’s supreme leader. The occasion may indeed
arise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei is 85 years old, and rumors about his health have been circulating
since 2022.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
election results indicate that conservative politicians will dominate the next
parliament, which is scarcely surprising given the tightly controlled
procedures under which candidates are vetted as suitable to run in the
elections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This pre-election task is
undertaken by the country’s constitutional watchdog, the powerful Guardian
Council, half of whose members are directly selected by Khamenei.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In fact, of the 15,200 people who registered to stand in the
election, no fewer than 7,296 were disqualified, some of them well-known
critics of the regime, many of them moderates and reformers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Iranian women have demonstrated more than
once to the regime that they are a force to be reckoned with, and the Guardian
Council acknowledged reality by allowing 666 women to stand.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The popular mood during the pre-election campaign was somber. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Powerful voices called on the nation to
boycott the forthcoming poll.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One with
particular appeal was that of the imprisoned Narges Mohammadi, who won the 2023
Nobel Peace Prize for her work fighting the oppression of women in Iran. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiicBESCEE2d7dPhS203wK9CcEQGZVS0RZKlGued8Ggat3hmpUUmWDxA-dm_JHrVX4sR0UkyGIGP0_XsZmmpL2b3Y_-_pDh8hIfblcv9OKXi24Ma1kxesiBwSv0BtUWzHM-R0QMn-nZaUm8aHXtGSpbHSoSV9YBT9qnMBOby5NKPKAigHHiWT70SStlGSwv/s524/Narges%20Mohammadi.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="524" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiicBESCEE2d7dPhS203wK9CcEQGZVS0RZKlGued8Ggat3hmpUUmWDxA-dm_JHrVX4sR0UkyGIGP0_XsZmmpL2b3Y_-_pDh8hIfblcv9OKXi24Ma1kxesiBwSv0BtUWzHM-R0QMn-nZaUm8aHXtGSpbHSoSV9YBT9qnMBOby5NKPKAigHHiWT70SStlGSwv/w435-h247/Narges%20Mohammadi.jpg" width="435" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She denounced the elections as sham, following
what she called the "ruthless and brutal suppression" of the 2022
protests triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, arrested for wearing
her hijab “improperly”.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">.Mohammadi, a human
rights activist, has been arrested 13 times and sentenced to a total of 31
years in prison.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Having already spent
some 12 years in jail serving multiple sentences, in January Iran's
Revolutionary Court sentenced her to an additional 15 months in prison,
doubtless in retaliation for what occurred at the Nobel Peace Award ceremony in
December.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Her children traveled to Stockholm to accept the Nobel award on her behalf. In her speech, smuggled from prison and read out on her behalf, she denounced Iran's "tyrannical" government. Referring to the 2022 protests, Mohammadi said young Iranians had "transformed the streets and public spaces into a place of widespread civil resistance." <br /></span><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;"> Freedom of expression was
a major issue during pre-election campaigning.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;">
</span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">Iranians are </span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">well aware of the growing
numbers of journalists, artists and other activists being arrested.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">The suppression of political dissent is also
resented.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">The most prominent figure in
the Green Movement, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who was a presidential candidate in
2009, remains under permanent house arrest.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For a variety of reasons
in 2021 it suited Supreme Leader Khamenei to approve the election of Hassan
Rouhani as president, despite the fact that many in Iran regard him as a
moderate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has since fallen out of
favor. Disqualified from running for the Assembly of Experts after 24 years of
membership, Rouhani nonetheless cast his vote on election day. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another former president, the reformist
Mohammad Khatami was, according to the Reform Front coalition, among those who
abstained from voting. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWA_huB3QDULHnE58VewB7iodYVn1XiQpoVvpfT9cAyMX9Y7upO-2Y3PWQUvg0XjUjTCkSSUl-fyETmv7ieRHe-bO1g3mxebsGt5IGuYkwmRQc89dVXysmZJamWYrpmwYJRThyDbzLD-M5J5ID0H3BnwB2RLAyvzi6L39KzhtZgmdyYIT4cuG4KPYsQCFR/s358/Mohammad%20Khatami.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="308" data-original-width="358" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWA_huB3QDULHnE58VewB7iodYVn1XiQpoVvpfT9cAyMX9Y7upO-2Y3PWQUvg0XjUjTCkSSUl-fyETmv7ieRHe-bO1g3mxebsGt5IGuYkwmRQc89dVXysmZJamWYrpmwYJRThyDbzLD-M5J5ID0H3BnwB2RLAyvzi6L39KzhtZgmdyYIT4cuG4KPYsQCFR/s320/Mohammad%20Khatami.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">On his official website Khatami posted that Iran is
“very far from free and competitive elections."<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The head of Reform Front,
Azar Mansouri, said she hoped the state would learn its lesson from the low
turnout, and change the way it governed the nation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The respected
London-based think tank, Chatham House, maintains that these Iranian elections
“should not be seen as a democratic exercise where people express their will at
the ballot box. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As in many authoritarian
countries, elections in Iran have long been used to legitimize the power and
influence of the ruling elite.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The regime, it says, has
failed to learn any lessons from the nationwide protests in 2022 following the
Mahsa Amini affair, and the subsequent brutal government crackdown. Rather
than attempting to build back popular legitimacy through inclusive elections, it
concludes, the political establishment has prioritized a further consolidation
of conservative power across both elected and unelected institutions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Confirming his
reputation for turning the truth on its head, Supreme Leader Khamenei on March
5 hailed Iran’s elections as "great and epic", despite the boycott by
a large majority of voters. “The Iranian nation did a jihad and fulfilled their
social and civil duties,” he declared.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In response, reformist
lawyer and former member of parliament Mahmoud Sadeghi tweeted: “Don’t the
sixty percent who did not vote count as Iranians?”</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG3RctDPQYSVcYY1klnH_k3g9G2QDDKqpmVaNqDI_44xsWkczokyiH3ySi5NVP1cvZ9yktwYlu7PUtFkXhyphenhyphenfCp2lQ9x96TdiGKhrbF4vdXeFoIh5UsTXM7TSG7bk6F-vhNu_FvXHJN9Z5XATcrpDZ2izxMwmWE_iyO00PW4g5VtYfrOOFdVQ02S3YgJ3bX/s456/Mostafa%20Tajzadeh%202019.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="456" data-original-width="372" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG3RctDPQYSVcYY1klnH_k3g9G2QDDKqpmVaNqDI_44xsWkczokyiH3ySi5NVP1cvZ9yktwYlu7PUtFkXhyphenhyphenfCp2lQ9x96TdiGKhrbF4vdXeFoIh5UsTXM7TSG7bk6F-vhNu_FvXHJN9Z5XATcrpDZ2izxMwmWE_iyO00PW4g5VtYfrOOFdVQ02S3YgJ3bX/w145-h179/Mostafa%20Tajzadeh%202019.jpg" width="145" /></a></span></div><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Writing from Tehran’s Evin prison, where he has spent more than eight years behind bars, dissident reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh, an outspoken critic of Khamenei, called the elections “engineered” and a “historic failure” of the system and of the Supreme Leader.<br /><br /> </span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Yet this perverse manipulation of the founding principle of Western democracy – free and fair elections – is how Iran’s regime maintains its unyielding grip on power.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "Iran's take on democracy and the Irfanians that refused to play along", 11 May 2024:</i></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-791226</i></span></div><div><p></p></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-18667475465492139152024-03-04T06:12:00.007+00:002024-03-11T09:01:18.308+00:00The Houthis – holding the world to ransom <p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 4 March 2024</i></b></span><b style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Ceaw949NtYo0cazNIuzuvfE6l3VrkK4UoEhSNJm03lCSr63O3wEcmANHauRSUdF7O2jJ2aqfG_EZ17kzXXrTmt0okoEbMM3iq_5xklzhZeMHxM0NW-oSdKccxMknRvGzSUv6cAKRC7I9psQWPCmFkH5EG8WOH1a-MXUlUUjmohn-e9VQOciZ6XHRG_GL/s832/Houthis%20support%20Hamas.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="832" height="367" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Ceaw949NtYo0cazNIuzuvfE6l3VrkK4UoEhSNJm03lCSr63O3wEcmANHauRSUdF7O2jJ2aqfG_EZ17kzXXrTmt0okoEbMM3iq_5xklzhZeMHxM0NW-oSdKccxMknRvGzSUv6cAKRC7I9psQWPCmFkH5EG8WOH1a-MXUlUUjmohn-e9VQOciZ6XHRG_GL/w548-h367/Houthis%20support%20Hamas.jpg" width="548" /></a></b></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><b><o:p> </o:p></b> <span style="font-family: georgia;">The
Houthis – whose flag proclaims, among other things, “Death to Israel, a curse
on the Jews” – operate from the chunk of west Yemen they have seized from
Yemen’s internationally recognized government (IRG). It is a well-populated area which contains
the capital Sana’a and a great length of coastline bordering the Red Sea,
including the vital port of Hodeidah. For
the past ten years the Houthis, intent on extending their grip to cover the
whole country, have been locked in a civil war which, despite various
well-intentioned peace brokering efforts, has so far resulted in a virtual
stalemate. </span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As a result, recently their
standing among the hard-pressed Yemenis had been on the slide, and they had
been competing for popular support against the IRG and the other main
protagonist in the contest for supremacy in Yemen – the so-called Southern
Transitional Council (STC).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aidarus
al-Zoubaidi, who founded the STC and is its president, has set his sights on
establishing an independent state of South Yemen.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPYevWjQquWHC08zRkSHLy7E35i9kPeAl5-vS82jwhzpXW1Fg6r5vkmLhDJrwD4S2zQuVF2-QRzzs3gcrBW2ox0-5pOoVLH3LqvdgYVsPUBHbTaBsh42C_F7BEAuQVHqNjFJsM7dcwavn200FTQfBw6CWC373Y_1iXVQ9P5SDL7Px7-5na22Iy8CPUezVd/s500/Aidarus%20al%20Zoubadi.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="500" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPYevWjQquWHC08zRkSHLy7E35i9kPeAl5-vS82jwhzpXW1Fg6r5vkmLhDJrwD4S2zQuVF2-QRzzs3gcrBW2ox0-5pOoVLH3LqvdgYVsPUBHbTaBsh42C_F7BEAuQVHqNjFJsM7dcwavn200FTQfBw6CWC373Y_1iXVQ9P5SDL7Px7-5na22Iy8CPUezVd/w374-h249/Aidarus%20al%20Zoubadi.jpg" width="374" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hamas’s incursion into
Israel on October 7, and the subsequent massacre, provided the Houthis with a
totally unexpected political advantage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As the news of the attack
broke, the Houthis – needing little prompting from their Iranian paymasters – virtually
declared war on Israel in support. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
was no doubt at Iran’s behest that the Houthis went on to plan a series of
assaults on Israel. Not all went according to plan. Three cruise missiles fired
from Yemen on October 19 were intercepted by the US navy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A drone attack launched on October 28
apparently went off-course and resulted in explosions inside Egypt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Since then, claiming
they are acting to force the international community to halt Israel’s offensive
in Gaza, the Houthis have begun a campaign of missile and armed drone
attacks on commercial ships transiting the Red Sea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The maritime security coalition of more than
20 nations, Operation Prosperity Guardian, set up by the US in December has
done nothing to deter them, nor has the deployment of EU and even Chinese
maritime forces off the coast of Yemen. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In mid-January,
following more than 20 Houthi attacks on commercial ships, the US and the UK led
a 14-nation campaign to “degrade and deter” the Houthi attacks by striking
Houthi missile and drone launch and storage facilities, extending this to
associated targets such as radar and air defense installations. When this too proved
ineffective, in late January they began attacking Houthi weaponry being prepared
for launch against commercial shipping. By early February, US-led strikes had
destroyed more than 100 missiles and launches, including anti-ship missiles,
drones, radars, unmanned waterborne drones, and other equipment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Whatever the effect of
this on the Houthis’ <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>total military
capacity, there has been no appreciable reduction in their bellicose
operations. They have, if anything, stepped up their aggressive activity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On February 18 they conducted their first
strike against the crew of a commercial ship, forcing them to abandon it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Struck by a missile, the Belize-flagged,
UK-registered vessel M/K Rubymar, slowly sank in the Red Sea on March 3.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX8qh992IbVqIIsZk8HfFriIJWKPCTFAtCjR8Mo-bxLqiCaTtwnHkX3QfD3bkBNgfQtFmRdxSDcqTlpY2jFqSZBSAiJ53MYo8yaIV23iuzykZxxE07HqypG5gDSbGkxKtgqwdyNSbzmpS2wT2K72CouYLnBa7YW8LBx-oARW0wKKrKI91xjYaXbFVqJDJ2/s871/Rubymar%20sinking.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="871" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX8qh992IbVqIIsZk8HfFriIJWKPCTFAtCjR8Mo-bxLqiCaTtwnHkX3QfD3bkBNgfQtFmRdxSDcqTlpY2jFqSZBSAiJ53MYo8yaIV23iuzykZxxE07HqypG5gDSbGkxKtgqwdyNSbzmpS2wT2K72CouYLnBa7YW8LBx-oARW0wKKrKI91xjYaXbFVqJDJ2/w522-h313/Rubymar%20sinking.jpg" width="522" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Houthi attacks,
threatening freedom of navigation and global commerce, have led<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>many shipping lines to take the longer
Europe-Far East route round South Africa, avoiding the Red Sea and the Suez
Canal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rerouting traffic around Africa’s
Cape of Good Hope can add anything from 12 to 20 days to the journey.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In the first half of
February, according to the UN, the Suez Canal experienced a 42% drop in monthly
transits and an 82% decrease in container tonnage compared to its peak in 2023.
Meanwhile commercial vessels have been rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope for
nearly two months, leading to a near doubling of vessel transits in the region
and a 75% increase in trade volume. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxC1A6Je4xwBJnHniWyWw_qk68WFDCmU5JLbA5y1sqJ98L_vuehdzDoNA2Qd578iiixMtHphsCl5UfgtzN-1TRWjSZjaeOVxooFI5p6p-00oBN0kK6efCjfMrYNiz_IyZXb2uWbd8zpRSOoXClPEvMUcQwT7GO5nj2hCOIk7YyAu9HlbDGCIUZn7WMA3Kw/s720/Sea%20routes%20Suez-Cape.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="720" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxC1A6Je4xwBJnHniWyWw_qk68WFDCmU5JLbA5y1sqJ98L_vuehdzDoNA2Qd578iiixMtHphsCl5UfgtzN-1TRWjSZjaeOVxooFI5p6p-00oBN0kK6efCjfMrYNiz_IyZXb2uWbd8zpRSOoXClPEvMUcQwT7GO5nj2hCOIk7YyAu9HlbDGCIUZn7WMA3Kw/w483-h272/Sea%20routes%20Suez-Cape.png" width="483" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This failure of the
world’s leading military powers to deter the Houthis still lacks a convincing
explanation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is not even evidence
that the Houthis have been resupplied by Iran, followed the degradation in
their military hardware from Western action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The US-led maritime coalition has intercepted numerous shipments from
Iran, but whether additional deliveries to the Houthis are slipping through
remains unknown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Houthis’ original
stockpile of weaponry may have been far higher than originally estimated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">How should the West
proceed?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One approach under
consideration is to concentrate on reviving the peace talks between the warring
parties in Yemen, pushing for a political settlement which would include an end
to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Another is to escalate the
attacks on the whole Houthi military machine and defeat them by overwhelming
force.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How Iran might act in such a
scenario is the great unknown.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The respected US think
tank and research body, the Soufan Center, believes that as of the end of
February, calls in Washington for a significant escalation directly against
Houthi forces in Yemen have been gaining momentum. Prominent experts and some
former US officials, it says, “are calling for US support for ground combat
operations against the Houthis as the only means of forcing the movement to
alter its policies.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The argument runs that
the US and its allies will have to threaten something more valuable to the
Houthis than the prestige they derive from attacking commercial shipping. The
only thing that reaches that threshold is Houthi control of Yemeni territory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So consideration is being given to massively
boosting the anti-Houthi forces engaged in the civil war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is appreciated that supporting a direct
attack on Houthi-held territory would entail a great many risks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of greater significance is that it would add
to the misery of the Yemeni population, already the victims of a massive
humanitarian catastrophe. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet despite the negative
consequences, the Soufan Center believes that the perceived threat the Houthis
now pose to US and Western vital interests virtually guarantees that calls for
an alternative to the current approach will continue to gather strength.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is a chink of
hope.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the Israel-Hamas conflict in
Gaza comes to an end, as it must eventually do, the Houthis might seize the
opportunity to withdraw from holding the world to ransom.<o:p></o:p></span></p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online title: "The Houthis are holding the world to ransom through the Red Sea attacks", 4 March 2024:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-790035</span></i><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 9 March 2024:</b></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.eurasiareview.com/09032024-the-houthis-are-holding-the-world-to-ransom-oped/</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 11 March 2024:</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://mpc-journal.org/the-houthis-are-holding-the-world-to-ransom/</i></span></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-74096334161101629512024-02-26T05:05:00.000+00:002024-02-26T05:05:36.066+00:00Hamas in Lebanon<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 26 February 2024</i></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyQVI1RtEK99IcOQR53_OoSR6_blFncRUOUFTRMG0SgaDrwbNBDTAi7Rs_9nVd0aCXSiISimpkpU_klVxf0ICzB7SxLeI0lNANE2GoKKDGZoQBs6VQaXWPBDh8H_tyPby1kMq2m8Qel0hUQHnZgv7CcXZvZYNDkbaKSAfCz8JuXdc3x5oV0MvM3pcZ0XDp/s768/Qassam%20Brigade.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="768" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyQVI1RtEK99IcOQR53_OoSR6_blFncRUOUFTRMG0SgaDrwbNBDTAi7Rs_9nVd0aCXSiISimpkpU_klVxf0ICzB7SxLeI0lNANE2GoKKDGZoQBs6VQaXWPBDh8H_tyPby1kMq2m8Qel0hUQHnZgv7CcXZvZYNDkbaKSAfCz8JuXdc3x5oV0MvM3pcZ0XDp/w575-h356/Qassam%20Brigade.jpg" width="575" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hamas seems intent on building up a fighting
force inside Lebanon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Early last December news emerged of a
large-scale recruitment drive by Hamas in and around the Palestinian refugee
camps in Lebanon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dubbed “The Al-Aqsa
Flood”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>– in line with the name given to
the October 7 massacre – the recruitment program was aimed at young men aged
between 17 and 20.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are 12 UNRWA
refugee camps in Lebanon, housing some half-million Palestinian refugees as
defined by UNRWA – namely a hugely inflated number of patrilineal descendants of
the Palestinians originally displaced during the 1948 Arab-Israel
conflict.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Evidence
of Hamas activity within Lebanon came to light on November 21, when an Israeli
drone struck a four-man Hamas squad in the Lebanese village of Chaatiyeh. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All four were killed in the strike, including Khalil
Kharaz, Hamas’s deputy commander in Lebanon.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvxBBjI502XgHwPTc94ZNbJhssihvgb-luijh-e_NvRWQZ_8YiBEQsRNEzLoxfOEY8Jq4W1FywmaSVEP7olEf2omw1Qoj2EXcpSSZmYz_0FWAXIsEZhW2AXWFZWCQ5dW6OMOBadRLFzPeTBhwGBXeQqEqLsFRJSSZURtnvLhHGQFa0xcCz085Rzf__2qrO/s551/Khalil%20Kharaz.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="551" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvxBBjI502XgHwPTc94ZNbJhssihvgb-luijh-e_NvRWQZ_8YiBEQsRNEzLoxfOEY8Jq4W1FywmaSVEP7olEf2omw1Qoj2EXcpSSZmYz_0FWAXIsEZhW2AXWFZWCQ5dW6OMOBadRLFzPeTBhwGBXeQqEqLsFRJSSZURtnvLhHGQFa0xcCz085Rzf__2qrO/s320/Khalil%20Kharaz.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Opinion is divided as to whether this new Hamas
initiative is in opposition to Iranian/Hezbollah interests – an attempt to
seize the initiative and ramp up the anti-Israel conflict – <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>or in support of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A third possibility is that Hamas, in
anticipation of military annihilation in Gaza, is preparing to use Lebanon as a
new base for continuing its fight against Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">That is the fear among </span>mainstream
Lebanese leaders and political parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many
denounced Hamas when it put out its recruitment call on December 4, accusing it
of violating their country’s national sovereignty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wasn’t it enough that Hezbollah had
established a political and military grip on the weakened and impoverished
nation, without Hamas elbowing its way in?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After all, Lebanon, on its knees economically speaking, was already
supporting two military machines – its own national army and the even stronger
Hezbollah militia. A third loose cannon, as it were, is the last thing Lebanon
needs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Opposition was
particularly strong from Lebanon’s Christian community, among whom the painful memory
of Lebanon’s 15-year-long bloody civil war persists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of the key causes of that conflict was
that Palestinian terrorists linked to Yasser Arafat’s Fatah organization had
been operating with virtually complete freedom in southern Lebanon, launching
attack after attack on northern Israel. This gave rise to the region’s nickname
of “Fatahland”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lebanese Christians now fear
the creation of what they are calling “Hamasland.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">If Hamas succeeds in its recruitment drive, the
question may well arise as to whether it will operate as an independent militia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any attempt at effective collaboration with
Hezbollah would bring into play </span>an inescapable difficulty that militates
against <span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">harmonious terrorist
relations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hezbollah is a Shia Muslim
organization while Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, is inescapably
Sunni.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Separated by the full length of
Israel – with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – the intrinsic Islamic clash
of traditions could be ignored.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is
scarcely possible were the two forces to attempt operating side by side, each
regarding the other as infidels, apostates and heretics.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For example, all was far
from sweetness and light when fierce intra-Palestinian fighting broke out last August
and September in Lebanon’s Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp, near Sidon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The clashes, which lasted for three months, were
triggered by the attempted assassination of Fatah leader, Mahmoud Khalil.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sixty-eight people were killed in the
conflict, which was finally brought to an end through the intervention of the
speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, Nabih Berri. He spoke with both Fatah and
Hamas leaders, and arranged a truce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Quoting this incident, Lebanese officials have been pressuring Hezbollah
not to let Hamas gain military ascendancy inside the refugee camps.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZGcOjOuNvj2w5OCgDPq_o4_ZqNTkm_uiAM5ybBdRzjVVYR_1Doouc2PpjfD-SYePv4n4axErSiv9eqGWdD37P5U03pZcS-PEUHyqsi-8QS_DZCOlbuebHiYA-FYO9IRLuBcrnYxXP1gFam-DgHp0TTKwl2PPLO6c1zSPe5u81vPVRYiw7djtbmwrN1Hw/s890/Ain%20Al-Hiilweh%20clashes.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="890" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZGcOjOuNvj2w5OCgDPq_o4_ZqNTkm_uiAM5ybBdRzjVVYR_1Doouc2PpjfD-SYePv4n4axErSiv9eqGWdD37P5U03pZcS-PEUHyqsi-8QS_DZCOlbuebHiYA-FYO9IRLuBcrnYxXP1gFam-DgHp0TTKwl2PPLO6c1zSPe5u81vPVRYiw7djtbmwrN1Hw/w530-h228/Ain%20Al-Hiilweh%20clashes.jpg" width="530" /></a></span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Both Hamas and Fatah
have a foothold within Lebanon, and Hamas’s latest recruitment drive is certainly
partly aimed at achieving dominance over its Fatah rival.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has two other constituencies to win round
– the dominant Hezbollah organization, and the large Sunni sector of Lebanese
society.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While Hamas does not have
Fatah’s long-term connection with Lebanon, since October 7 it has, according to
Mohanad Hage Ali of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the Carnegie Middle
East Center, “gained popularity specifically among Sunnis in Lebanon.”</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM7I_kObkzuOyvTzWLJuZli4xiaTWH0svuy2LZKN_XxLb3vFPa4vCVhzOQ_Ry0Uz2Cx_qGggb87gUGFogv9n2ay7iHY2yCYooESADIPFELJWx01GzNiejUuOvcRMecJQOpOMfRbye05yBe06nOMknOYsehzqqQILpgpsjPA0DyqpQ9NVXQ17j-I144ouln/s612/Abu%20Obeida.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="420" data-original-width="612" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM7I_kObkzuOyvTzWLJuZli4xiaTWH0svuy2LZKN_XxLb3vFPa4vCVhzOQ_Ry0Uz2Cx_qGggb87gUGFogv9n2ay7iHY2yCYooESADIPFELJWx01GzNiejUuOvcRMecJQOpOMfRbye05yBe06nOMknOYsehzqqQILpgpsjPA0DyqpQ9NVXQ17j-I144ouln/w423-h291/Abu%20Obeida.jpg" width="423" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The leading Hamas
personality is Abu Obeida, the so-called “masked <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>spokesman” for Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam
Brigades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He invariably appears in
public with his whole face and head enrobed in a red keffiyeh and only his eyes
visible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His real name is unknown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He came to prominence in 2006, when he
announced the capture of the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, later exchanged for
1,000 Palestinian prisoners.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In late October, exploiting
its new-found popularity, Hamas organized a large protest in downtown Beirut.
Thousands of people were bussed in from around the country to take part as
green Hamas flags filled Martyr’s Square. While much of the crowd was
Palestinian, many Lebanese were also present.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Emboldened,, Hamas has since
launched military operations from Lebanon – like the 16 rockets fired by
the Qassam Brigades targeting the northern Israeli city of Nahariya and the
southern outskirts of Haifa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Israel said
that it had identified about 30 launches from Lebanon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“The IDF is responding with artillery fire
toward the origin of the launches,” the IDF posted on X, formerly known as
Twitter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Many in Lebanon were
convinced that the Hamas recruitment drive would not have been possible without
the positive approval, and possible collaboration, of Hezbollah. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How deep that collaboration runs is the
subject of speculation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hezbollah’s
leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will be aware that Hamas is trying to use its moment
in the spotlight, allied to the unhappy conditions in the refugee camps, to expand
its influence in Lebanon. He may also believe, with some analysts, that
with its recruitment drive Hamas is initiating a longer-term aim – <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>forming a new young cadre of supporters, deeply
imbued with Hamas’s beliefs and objectives, to carry on its anti-Israel crusade
from Lebanese territory. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nasrallah,
acting in accordance with Iran’s own longer-term strategy, will view any such
intention with suspicion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span> </span><span> </span>It is perhaps this
disparity in influence that Hamas is intent on redressing, as it strengthens
its position inside Lebanon and seeks to make it a second military front from
which to continue its struggle against Israel’s very existence.</span><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled:"Hamas in Lebanon is fighting to eliminate Israel", 26 February 2024:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-788814</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><br /></p><p></p>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-24871871556179611592024-02-19T04:58:00.005+00:002024-02-29T09:22:52.452+00:00 Netanyahu’s total victory<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 19 February 2024 </i></b></span> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOtFQ0s20h42zVce-Gn5RZARi6rMetkBGAh7WIPNJzLqpq3RvqDwVOOFy6A0n4LvF9RlkmRksvaG8F50NxE0kj0zvrJFoqRfViMGpKvXBBYfpqGFfqlBLPWhZz8m1B82bZ-KDFdjFbrYPCH3GHSWydGuVvckyMNKspkPdqmdyK_3mvkjKD8JEoAear96hV/s800/Casablanca.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="800" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOtFQ0s20h42zVce-Gn5RZARi6rMetkBGAh7WIPNJzLqpq3RvqDwVOOFy6A0n4LvF9RlkmRksvaG8F50NxE0kj0zvrJFoqRfViMGpKvXBBYfpqGFfqlBLPWhZz8m1B82bZ-KDFdjFbrYPCH3GHSWydGuVvckyMNKspkPdqmdyK_3mvkjKD8JEoAear96hV/w567-h454/Casablanca.jpg" width="567" /></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> The
term “total victory” has been on prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s lips a
great deal recently. It has about it the ring of the phrase adopted by Franklin
Roosevelt and Winston Churchill at Casablanca in the middle of World War Two – “unconditional
surrender” – implying that the Allies would be content with nothing less than
the complete and utter defeat of the Nazi enemy. There would be no armistice, no haggling over
the terms of a cessation of hostilities.
Unconditional surrender became the ultimate war aim of the Allies.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Total victory could be
described as Netanyahu’s ultimate war aim.
It implies both the complete elimination of Hamas as a fighting force
and the liberation of all the hostages held by them. The military defeat of Hamas would mean also
the end of its control of the Gaza Strip.
How Gaza is to be administered and its reconstruction put in hand are
urgent problems that will require attention and cooperative international
action as soon as the Hamas military machine is no more.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Netanyahu
used the term “total victory” several times on February 8 in response to the
most recent hostage-for-ceasefire offer by Hamas. Back in November negotiations conducted with
the help of intermediaries produced a pause in the fighting in Gaza and the
freeing of 105 hostages held by Hamas, matched by the release of 240
Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Ever since there has been a constant
to-and-fro of further negotiations in an attempt to reach a another deal
acceptable to both Hamas and Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hamas’s aim has been to
secure Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and the release of all Palestinian
prisoners in Israeli jails. Israel is
seeking the liberation of all the hostages held by Hamas in return for as short
a pause in the fighting as possible, to prevent Hamas regrouping and reversing
Israel’s gains in the Strip.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Talks in Paris involving
intelligence chiefs from Israel, the US and Egypt, together with the prime
minister of Qatar, resulted on January 30 in new proposals for a ceasefire and
release of hostages. Hamas said it was
studying them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A senior Hamas official then
told Reuters news agency that the proposal involved a three-stage truce, during
which the group would first release remaining civilians among hostages it
captured on October 7, then soldiers, and finally the bodies of hostages that
were killed. Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh left
his luxurious home in Doha to fly to Cairo to discuss them.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj187V2U4ePcZm4GF_iUxs9qDXVZkxRFDDsCvP_SbQXUOF4O-Lc8nlTv6K2fMlzZQOMj7Vx9masa5YVOVI9yOiwRWyPicscikk30xsY2qUEkBy4sP5Lb2ZnA4qLiLocGoXceZVsXkU6hIaGc3ECVpM1BhpTX-aSrFOEqtGjsKCN-BxY2sWsENTZWU-xvrE0/s700/Ismail%20Haniyeh.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="700" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj187V2U4ePcZm4GF_iUxs9qDXVZkxRFDDsCvP_SbQXUOF4O-Lc8nlTv6K2fMlzZQOMj7Vx9masa5YVOVI9yOiwRWyPicscikk30xsY2qUEkBy4sP5Lb2ZnA4qLiLocGoXceZVsXkU6hIaGc3ECVpM1BhpTX-aSrFOEqtGjsKCN-BxY2sWsENTZWU-xvrE0/w426-h240/Ismail%20Haniyeh.jpg" width="426" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While the people of
Gaza have undergone untold misery following Hamas’s horrendous actions on
October 7, the leaders of Hamas have been enjoying sumptuous lifestyles in Qatar. <br /><br /> Between them Ismail Haniyeh, Moussa Abu Marzuk and Khaled Mashal are estimated by the New York Post to be worth a staggering $11 billion, accumulated heaven knows how.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> The discussions in Cairo resulted in a counter-offer from Hamas, made public on February 7. Using the same three-stage formula but spread over 135 days, Hamas proposed in the first 45 days a temporary halt to military operations and the repositioning of Israeli forces outside populated areas. On its part Hamas would release Israeli civilian women and children together with elderly and sick hostages in return for the release of Palestinian women, children, elderly and sick from Israeli jails.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The second 45 days would
see Israeli forces withdraw outside the Gaza Strip and Hamas release all
Israeli male civilian and military hostages in exchange for other Palestinian
prisoners. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In the third 45 days the
exchange of bodies and remains from both sides would see the virtual end to the
conflict. Israel would have withdrawn
from Gaza, and all the hostages would have been released.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Netanyahu’s
reaction? Total rejection. Dubbing the proposals “delusional”, he renewed
his pledge to destroy Hamas. To a media
conference he said that total victory in Gaza was within reach and that there
was no alternative for Israel but to bring about the collapse of Hamas. He insisted that total victory against Hamas
was the only solution to the Gaza war. "Continued military pressure,” he
said, “is a necessary condition for the release of the hostages." Is he right?
Or is he, as a tranche of Israeli opinion holds in a somewhat ungenerous
interpretation of his motives, mainly interested in the personal and political
advantages he derives from spinning out the war scenario for as long as
possible?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">US Secretary of State,
Anthony Blinken, was less clear-cut in his reaction. At a late-night press conference in a Tel
Aviv hotel, he suggested forging a truce agreement was not a lost cause.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Ou9bN_FCdsx-Ubn2i2XfHE0QSy6_h0HN3lJqEvyF55xlAEjnfbOZga6RDeTrQZv-kky0iO8f76YTJcV1ZA5OKrSaWn05gmK-AYNCSogU8o0oFzxVIPt6aAzBusWmY9IBCxmn2TnSW4ezvx6BtgaZq-zaYO92QTr3QZw5RVwVr5tTZdlpYxvEYpNKrF3w/s789/Antony-Blinken-1.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="789" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Ou9bN_FCdsx-Ubn2i2XfHE0QSy6_h0HN3lJqEvyF55xlAEjnfbOZga6RDeTrQZv-kky0iO8f76YTJcV1ZA5OKrSaWn05gmK-AYNCSogU8o0oFzxVIPt6aAzBusWmY9IBCxmn2TnSW4ezvx6BtgaZq-zaYO92QTr3QZw5RVwVr5tTZdlpYxvEYpNKrF3w/w442-h258/Antony-Blinken-1.jpg" width="442" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">"There are clearly
nonstarters in what (Hamas has) put forward," he said, without specifying
what the nonstarters were. "But we
also see space in what came back to pursue negotiations, to see if we can get
to an agreement. That's what we intend to do."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">One obvious non-starter
is that at the end of the Hamas-proposed process, Hamas would be left in
control of a Gaza Strip from which the IDF had withdrawn completely, and would
be totally free to rebuild its military infrastructure and resume its
relentless campaign aimed at destroying Israel and killing Jews. Another, from Washington’s point of view, is
that Hamas is fundamentally and inflexibly opposed to the two-state solution,
that article of faith so cherished by the UN, US, EU, UK and much of world
opinion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">And here is the great
dilemma, for a negotiated ceasefire does have an appeal to those concerned
above all for the fate of Israel’s hostages still in Hamas’s hands, and it
commends itself also to the great swath of world opinion concerned above all
for the protection of the Gazan civilian population. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It is a prospect,
however, unlikely to commend itself to Netanyahu, who perceives the long-term
implications for Israel – a reversal to the failed policies of the past, with
Hamas, Israel’s implacable enemy, reinstalled in power a hand’s breadth away from
Israeli citizens, and the whole nation in range of ever more sophisticated
missiles and rockets. Netanyahu attempts
to square the circle by arguing that the best hope of liberating the hostages
lies not in deals that allow Hamas to regain its control of Gaza, but in
maintaining Israel’s military pressure until the complete defeat of Hamas – in
other words, total victory. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "What does 'total victory' look like for Netanyahu in the war with Hamas?", 19 February 2024:</i></span></b></span><div><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.6667px;"><i>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-787638</i></span></span></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-49244736453777143722024-02-13T04:11:00.000+00:002024-02-13T04:11:16.830+00:00UNRWA chief should resign<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 13 February 2024</i></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFGXjqWqSPpwEfDohMQO_K0MkVd-MPckgVM20yh7VawrbYSa9kFcPS5zyihuxLqR8sc7c5TZ9i2V_h-1pKsjKr3bVsUKAImOt5woNkL5JGZvoMx3WlEv1gN0eLlmp7PPougCiMCxobaJKE_E-5vKeLIWSxKlzPj6hsw9TFx4AIn2oMlKFq0NbHzforTsmY/s721/Philippe%20Lazzarini.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="721" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFGXjqWqSPpwEfDohMQO_K0MkVd-MPckgVM20yh7VawrbYSa9kFcPS5zyihuxLqR8sc7c5TZ9i2V_h-1pKsjKr3bVsUKAImOt5woNkL5JGZvoMx3WlEv1gN0eLlmp7PPougCiMCxobaJKE_E-5vKeLIWSxKlzPj6hsw9TFx4AIn2oMlKFq0NbHzforTsmY/w586-h348/Philippe%20Lazzarini.jpg" width="586" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> One-time US President Harry S Truman kept a slogan on his desk: “The buck stops here”. The idea was to remind himself daily that, as the nation’s leader, he intended to take ultimate responsibility for what happened under his watch. There would be no “passing the buck”, no denying responsibility or laying the blame elsewhere.. <br /><br /> This is the principle at one time observed pretty universally by any chief executive. Heads of organizations took it for granted that they were responsible for its actions. Standards may have slipped somewhat in recent years, but it is still generally accepted that when organisations act reprehensibly, their leader is ultimately responsible for its failures, and relinquishes his or her post. <br /><br /> The furore that has erupted around the United Nations Relief and Works Agency is not the first time that UNRWA has been charged with scandalous conduct, but it is undoubtedly the worst. The organisation is tarred with offences so heinous that they almost beggar description. Yet we have heard not a peep from its commissioner-general, Philippe Lazzarini, suggesting that he is shouldering any kind of responsibility, let alone considering his position. <br /><br /> Based upon what must be pretty convincing intelligence provided by Israel, at least 14 countries have stopped funding UNRWA for the time being. Details of Israel’s intelligence dossier were disseminated in the media on January 30. They provide information indicating that, incredibly, 12 people employed by UNRWA participated personally in the massacre of 1200 people and the capture of some 240 hostages that took place in Israel on October 7. <br /><br /> The dossier lists the names and jobs of all 12 allegedly involved in Hamas’s attack, and the specific allegations against them. It details how six of the UNRWA staff inside Israel on the day of the attack were tracked through their phones. Others were wiretapped and, during a series of calls, were heard discussing their involvement in the attack. <br /><br /> It describes ten of the 12 as members of Hamas, and another as affiliated to Islamic Jihad. It names a school counselor from Khan Younis as allegedly conspiring with his son to abduct a woman from Israel, and identifies an Arabic teacher employed by UNRWA as a Hamas militant commander who allegedly took part in the murderous attack on Kibbutz Be’eri. A social worker in the Nuseirat refugee camp is accused of helping Hamas bring the body of a dead Israeli soldier into Gaza, and of coordinating vehicles for the terror group during the October 7 attack and handing out ammunition to its gunmen. The New York Times, which also had access to the intelligence dossier, reported that three of those monitored by Israeli intelligence received text messages on October 7 ordering them to report to muster points, while another UNRWA employee was ordered to bring rocket-propelled grenades stored inside his home. <br /><br /> But the scandal runs much deeper. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the dossier says that about 10 percent of UNRWA’s 13,000 staff in Gaza have ties to Islamist groups, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad.</span><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqeMM9ahFx4Thk8J41ayMM9HHA-hZ1j_ixJDbRfQt0TL0b0YvqqvhH7ldZE5h7m-K2kG99NghkcuN9OQlpS48y5fr5DsE7PKu5NfuZ-4n4Q1SgsAXYGCbUSIb3Ty2FDsnwqmBquyChEk6ic54SwzykRC8vMDhBydj52XaneVD4rCE7dGRwnhBZLi1iRwwO/s432/Guterres-2.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="432" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqeMM9ahFx4Thk8J41ayMM9HHA-hZ1j_ixJDbRfQt0TL0b0YvqqvhH7ldZE5h7m-K2kG99NghkcuN9OQlpS48y5fr5DsE7PKu5NfuZ-4n4Q1SgsAXYGCbUSIb3Ty2FDsnwqmBquyChEk6ic54SwzykRC8vMDhBydj52XaneVD4rCE7dGRwnhBZLi1iRwwO/w438-h292/Guterres-2.jpg" width="438" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On January 28 the UN
Secretary General, Antonio Guterres said he was horrified by the allegations
and that nine of the 12 employees identified as being involved with Hamas had
been sacked. One was dead, he added, and the identities of the other two were
being clarified.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the UN
investigates, so far at least 14 countries, among them the US, the UK, Germany,
Australia, Italy, Canada, Finland, the Netherlands and Japan have not responded
to pleas from Lazzarini and Guterres to resume their payments to UNRWA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A senior Israeli
government official told the <i>Wall Street Journal</i>: “UNRWA’s problem is
not just ‘a few bad apples’ involved in the October 7 massacre. The institution
as a whole is a haven for Hamas’s radical ideology.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Around the time the
State of Israel came into being, something over half the non-Jewish population
of what was called “Palestine” at the time, some 750,000 people, left their
homes – some on advice, some from fear of the forthcoming conflict, some during
the fierce exchanges.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">After the armistice the
UN set up a body to assist them – UNRWA. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It began its work in May 1950, seven
months ahead of the establishment by the UN of the Office of the UN High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Ever since, Palestinian refugees have
been treated differently from all the other refugees in the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One reason is that from the start UNRWA totally
ignored a key aspect of its remit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The 1949 UN General
Assembly resolution that established UNRWA called for the alleviation of
distress among Palestine refugees and stated, crucially, that: “constructive
measures should be undertaken at an early date with a view to the termination
of international assistance for relief.” In other words, the new agency’s
mission was intended to be temporary as the refugees under its wing were
resettled.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> By 2024 the “temporary” UNRWA had been
transformed into a bloated international bureaucracy with a staff in excess of 30,000
and an annual budget of around $2.2 billion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As for the number of Palestinians registered by UNRWA as refugees, that
had mushroomed from around 750,000 to 5.9 million as a result of its decision
to bestow refugee status in perpetuity upon “descendants of Palestine
refugees”– children, grandchildren and great grandchildren. The
growth in UNWRA’s client base was therefore exponential year on year,
justifying an ever-expanding staff and an ever-increasing budget. No
resettlement policy was instituted, and the temporary refugee camps became
permanent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While the main UN agency
dealing with refugees – UNHCR – concentrates on resettling
them, facilitating their voluntary repatriation or their local integration and
resettlement, UNRWA maintains an ever-expanding client base of millions in
their refugee status decade after decade. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“We have been warning
for years,” said Israel Katz, Israel’s Foreign Minister: “UNRWA perpetuates the
refugee issue, obstructs peace, and serves as a civilian arm of Hamas in Gaza.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That final charge is
substantiated by a recent in-depth investigation into UNRWA’s educational
program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to the report by
IMPACT-se, issued in November 2023, educational textbooks used by UNRWA continue
to glorify terrorism, encourage martyrdom, demonize Israelis, and incite
antisemitism, despite promises to remove such content. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The report identified
133 UNRWA educators and staff found to promote hate and violence on social
media, and an additional 82 UNRWA teachers and other staff involved in
drafting, supervising, approving, printing, and distributing hateful content to
students.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">When the organization
you are leading is found to have been infiltrated by a terrorist organization,
to have become its instrument of propaganda, to have actually been used as a
base for a most horrific massacre of innocent civilians, then the honorable course
is to take responsibility for the failures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>UNRWA’s commissioner-general, Philippe Lazzarini, should resign.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online as "UNRWA chief should resign. He let Hamas infiltrate his organization." 13 February 2024:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-786528 <br /></span></i><br /><br />Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-23512936751896312462024-02-07T05:40:00.009+00:002024-02-12T20:34:47.095+00:00The Palestinians don't want a two-state solution <p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 7 February 2024</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b> <img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="832" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5_lIXFJZMI_YHzzZXtFlnvXHtn8s2xOZy75r20x3EOT75_hu6KqruJ7Av939EWKEdbSkUZY928QxovDgppFiMhbr2aA7wDDpW6L9IvGP8VR2tLo-fvaUJJIQ4V34jGxYDTmtBs3K73vS3Fv_Ej9RqNOw0bYtVjRwwKAkQKMQ-qYGTlCezuI6ZoMBhvGeN/w579-h325/Cameron%20and%20Netanyahu.jpg" width="579" /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-family: georgia;">On January 29, out of the blue, Britain’s foreign minister Lord Cameron declared that because Palestinians needed to see “irreversible progress to a two-state solution”, Britain and its allies would consider recognizing a Palestinian state.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 36pt;"><br /></span></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 36pt;"><b> </b>Speaking at a reception
for Arab ambassadors, he said there needed to be an immediate pause in the
conflict in Gaza; the release of all the hostages held by Hamas; and “most
important of all is to give the Palestinian people a political horizon”.</span></span></div><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>On
the next day, the Jerusalem Post carried a story headlined: "US might
recognize Palestinian state after war." <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It reported that US Secretary of State Anthony
Blinken had ordered the State Department to start examining the possibility of
US and international recognition of a State of Palestine the day after the Gaza
war ended.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One strand of opinion in the
State Department, it said, apparently favors recognition of a Palestinian state
as the first, rather than the last, step in a renewed peace process aimed at
guaranteeing Israel’s security in a two-state solution.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hooked
on the nostrum of a two-state solution, much of the world, including a swath of
Arab opinion, subscribes to the view that it has been Israeli intransigence
that has frustrated this deeply desired outcome by the Palestinians. For
example Husam Zomlot, Palestinian ambassador to the UK, told the media on the
following day that Cameron’s remarks about recognizing a Palestinian state were
“historic”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pursuing the Palestinian
Authority strategy of supporting the two-state ideal, inherited from its first
leader, Yasser Arafat, he said:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicEAPvDb530XNWIgJl5GI8lsQXqO0Gw_LNz9fNBJxLZLNXXsPueK5HYZNmDzat4ZmDrLhtYZYl7oJi2JPW8NI7WHhlv20SzWWv1LIrhBLOdx-vZfBqd3j-37pQW2JCk30ECrDLoeMP7xi687pYvCclWfoL6_eKngh6hScwWAqxeOGzbdi2lJKlO-fP16Nj/s1100/Husam%20Zomlot.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="1100" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicEAPvDb530XNWIgJl5GI8lsQXqO0Gw_LNz9fNBJxLZLNXXsPueK5HYZNmDzat4ZmDrLhtYZYl7oJi2JPW8NI7WHhlv20SzWWv1LIrhBLOdx-vZfBqd3j-37pQW2JCk30ECrDLoeMP7xi687pYvCclWfoL6_eKngh6hScwWAqxeOGzbdi2lJKlO-fP16Nj/w430-h242/Husam%20Zomlot.jpg" width="430" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“It is the first time a
UK foreign secretary considers recognizing the State of Palestine, bilaterally
and in the UN, as a contribution to a peaceful solution rather than an
outcome,” he said. “If implemented, the Cameron declaration would remove
Israel’s veto power over Palestinian statehood [and] would boost efforts
towards a two-state outcome.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The plain facts tell a
quite different story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every one of the
numerous Israel-Palestinian peace negotiations over the years – each of which,
as an obvious <i>sine qua non</i>, incorporated<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>recognition of Israel – has fallen at the last hurdle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Embracing a two-state solution implies a
voluntary end to the delegitimizing of Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It means abandoning the key elements in the charters of the two main
political Palestinian movements, Fatah and Hamas, both of which state
unequivocally that the whole of what was once Mandate Palestine is Arab land,
and it is the God-given duty of Palestinians to fight for its recovery.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A two-state solution
means that one of the two states is Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Many, perhaps most, of those who support the “Palestinian cause” believe
that Palestinians are fighting for their own state alongside Israel;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>many others understand clearly that “From the
river to the sea” means what it says – the removal of the state of Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To be blunt, while the two-state solution
appeals to world opinion, it is not what majority Palestinian opinion
favors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The latest authoritative poll,
undertaken in December, revealed that no less than 64% of Palestinians are
opposed to a two-state solution.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu is reviled by two-state supporters as having consistently rejected
Palestinian statehood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may oppose it
at present, given current circumstances, but this was not always the case.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzbeHbIgadQ06ozzXq8zw6Jp4QYVjG9n2KEvApF0y_8l-8CCJ7af8b-Dzr0RAVNU0X2e0x9ful7MVcbUmWG32suag4UhsIoomNazB-cTJwIhtloJscpxsjRc5f08z6JfWAsxkFMumMPZ11v9EmhkUW1NuBLCHZrsqYP47jiVwW1VM4bE_b0eNCiExY4xbA/s783/Obama.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="783" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzbeHbIgadQ06ozzXq8zw6Jp4QYVjG9n2KEvApF0y_8l-8CCJ7af8b-Dzr0RAVNU0X2e0x9ful7MVcbUmWG32suag4UhsIoomNazB-cTJwIhtloJscpxsjRc5f08z6JfWAsxkFMumMPZ11v9EmhkUW1NuBLCHZrsqYP47jiVwW1VM4bE_b0eNCiExY4xbA/w404-h316/Obama.jpg" width="404" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Barack Obama came to the
US presidency in 2009 determined to change the dynamic in US-Muslim relations
for the better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He chose Cairo as the
location for a speech to be known as “A New Beginning”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Having pledged America’s support for Israel,
Obama continued: “The Palestinian people—Muslim and Christians—have suffered in
pursuit of a homeland.. For more than sixty years they have endured the pain of
dislocation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So let there be no doubt, “
he continued, “the situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable. And
America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for
dignity, opportunity, and a state of their own.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Like Obama, Netanyahu
had only recently won an election, and it was too early for a head-to-head
clash. Instead Netanyahu decided to show Obama that on certain issues, with
certain conditions, he was willing to bend for the greater good, although never
when it came to Israel’s survival.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ten
days after Obama’s speech, Netanyahu gave an address at Bar Ilan University.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Speaking to the
Palestinian people direct, he said: “the simple truth is that the root of the
conflict was, and remains, the refusal to recognize the right of the Jewish
people to a state of their own, in their historic homeland.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“But we must also tell
the truth in its entirety,” he continued.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>“Within this homeland lives a large Palestinian community. We do not
want to rule over them, we do not want to govern their lives, we do not want to
impose either our flag or our culture on them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In my vision of peace, in this small land of ours, two peoples live
freely, side-by-side, in amity and mutual respect. Each will have its own
flag, its own national anthem, its own government. Neither will threaten the
security or survival of the other.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Then he added:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“I told President Obama when I was in
Washington that if we could agree on the substance, then the terminology would
not pose a problem. And here is the substance that I now state clearly:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we receive this guarantee regarding
demilitarization and Israel's security needs, and if the Palestinians recognize
Israel as the State of the Jewish people, then we will be ready in a future
peace agreement to reach a solution where a demilitarized Palestinian state
exists alongside the Jewish state.“<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">These honeyed words fell
on deaf ears.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hamas, rooted in
rejectionism, had already seized the Gaza Strip.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their total raison d’être was and remains to
eliminate Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fatah and the
Palestinian Authority continued to pursue the strategy set by Yasser Arafat,
which was to court world opinion by appearing to support a two-state solution
while retaining the ultimate objective of ousting Israel from the Middle East. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Nothing has changed
except that since the massacre of October 7, Hamas has gained unprecedented
support within the Arab world in general, and among the Palestinian populace in
particular.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That means Palestinian
statehood means something quite different to majority Arab opinion than it does
to the ardent two-staters. In short, the two-state solution is anathema to most
Arabs – a fact of life which Anthony Blinken, Lord Cameron, and all who espouse
it wilfully refuse to recognize.</span><br /></p><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post on line under the headline: "The two-state solution is anathema to most Arabs", 7 February 2024:<br /></b>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-785525</span></i><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 9 February 2024:</b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://www.eurasiareview.com/09022024-the-palestinians-dont-want-a-two-state-solution-oped/#:~:text=To%20be%20blunt%2C%20while%20the,to%20a%20two%2Dstate%20solution.</span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 12 February 2024:</b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://mpc-journal.org/the-palestinians-dont-want-a-two-state-solution/</span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><br /></p><p></p></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-31148235877486821782024-01-30T06:25:00.010+00:002024-01-30T06:41:54.759+00:00One way to square the two-state circle<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 30 January 2024:</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKfeqhZkEO5hy58oVVkdDIxEWJgfNSIevVLtkGDitzWuRJzqjptMjKkLp5so9v6kuw0dbAgY9WGI39db8-3JqlZF9QNI20-4iDxwWKOcjd2CqtLuts-xgxt65MIAEPHm414LpyWBKYPMIEBj5ZvaITD0z7DSmCWiO1ISkaR23NyfHagc0U3MHMtrVufIlY/s1200/Biden%20and%20Netanyahu.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKfeqhZkEO5hy58oVVkdDIxEWJgfNSIevVLtkGDitzWuRJzqjptMjKkLp5so9v6kuw0dbAgY9WGI39db8-3JqlZF9QNI20-4iDxwWKOcjd2CqtLuts-xgxt65MIAEPHm414LpyWBKYPMIEBj5ZvaITD0z7DSmCWiO1ISkaR23NyfHagc0U3MHMtrVufIlY/w644-h362/Biden%20and%20Netanyahu.jpg" width="644" /></a></b></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><b style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: georgia;">Christmas and the New Year celebrations had
come and gone, and still the phone lines between US President Joe Biden and
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, remained ominously silent.
Very nearly a full month without contact had elapsed when, on January
19, Biden picked up the White House phone and asked to speak with the Israeli
prime minister.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The call was occasioned by remarks made
by Netanyahu the day before, in which he stated, perhaps more clearly than ever
before, his rooted opposition to the US’s vision of the </span>post-war future
for Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied territories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ever since the Israel-Hamas war started
Washington <span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">had made it clear
that it wished to see a post-war Gaza returned to the governance of a reformed
and strengthened Palestinian Authority, as a first step toward establishing a
two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian dispute. This vision was subsequently
reiterated time and again by US officials from Secretary of State Anthony
Blinken down. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After speaking with the president,
Netanyahu gave a televised news conference and </span>said that he had made it
clear that Israel "must have security control over all the territory west
of the Jordan…This is a necessary condition, and it conflicts with the idea of
[Palestinian] sovereignty." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>For
his part Biden, i<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">n discussing
the conversation later that day a</span>t a conference of US mayors in
Washington, demonstrated how easy it is for two people to carry away entirely
different understandings of a conversation between them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Biden told reporters he believed that
Netanyahu would support Palestinian statehood, particularly if that state was a
demilitarized one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“I think we will be
able to work something out,” he told reporters. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In its formal report of
the discussion, the White House said, “The president also discussed his vision
for a more durable peace and security for Israel fully integrated within the
region, and a two-state solution with Israel’s security guaranteed.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Netanyahu was swift to
disabuse him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the day following their
phone conversation, he posted on X, formerly Twitter: ““I will not compromise
on full Israeli security control over all the territory west of the Jordan –
and this runs contrary to a Palestinian state.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>A
riposte to that last assertion is available.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is to be found in the one message from Biden that got lost in the
welter of claim and counter-claim – a quiet throwaway remark, reported in the
media but not picked up: “There are a number of types of two-state solutions.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What can Biden have meant by that remark?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Perhaps
he had in mind the suggestion of Israel’s then President, Reuven Rivlin, in a
newspaper interview on August 7, 2015. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An
Israeli-Palestinian confederation, said Rivlin, might be the best means of
settling the perennial Middle East conflict. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to a recording of the interview,
Rivlin also said that a future confederation could feature two parliaments and
two constitutions, but only one army — the Israel Defense Forces.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJxWky9DfFeciqLWJnQyWlY4QMQNLEXGsALO3_VLiYLDo46mVJefthUpEIIPD4WlcbR7cKXPqZlF-Z0Dl58UexnhlfFBFI0wKSGwVN-bfp0YS0-UYR0744BwcDyXV333w9ZEKuKXKw5NjhlAiCxMnv6K-vib_lRH_RvDr7NkEz3io54CtwEehcjhuZJsVw/s692/Reuven%20Rivlin.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="692" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJxWky9DfFeciqLWJnQyWlY4QMQNLEXGsALO3_VLiYLDo46mVJefthUpEIIPD4WlcbR7cKXPqZlF-Z0Dl58UexnhlfFBFI0wKSGwVN-bfp0YS0-UYR0744BwcDyXV333w9ZEKuKXKw5NjhlAiCxMnv6K-vib_lRH_RvDr7NkEz3io54CtwEehcjhuZJsVw/w369-h265/Reuven%20Rivlin.jpeg" width="369" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Rivlin
might have been referring back to an article by Israeli elder statesman, Yossi
Beilin, in the New York Times three months earlier, titled: “Confederation is
the Key to Mideast Peace.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“This
idea isn’t new,” wrote Beilin. “For a brief time in the 1990s, it animated some
of my earliest discussions about peace with a spokesman whom Palestinians
revered, Faisal al-Husse</span>ini. But that was before the Oslo Accords of
1993…In hindsight, it is clear that we should have been looking all along at
confederation – cohabitation, not divorce.”</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3yiKc1fN-eNcf_-Nmp4m_-sTBf8pC-g_3Mz49ADiuYcRZV93wpaEJjtB_OZ8gnzc7PoyXFI5TltZKzfOw_4wNOs2-ovN31twJOD_uDliYDXY97zSXTsrHsmxiK1451UYDkhaLuy-dAAnVjLh7lhjzoA3OyP4-JMruY0Wfn-DWaWvkdbfPiSaY_gco_0Vn/s1201/Yossi%20Beilin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1201" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3yiKc1fN-eNcf_-Nmp4m_-sTBf8pC-g_3Mz49ADiuYcRZV93wpaEJjtB_OZ8gnzc7PoyXFI5TltZKzfOw_4wNOs2-ovN31twJOD_uDliYDXY97zSXTsrHsmxiK1451UYDkhaLuy-dAAnVjLh7lhjzoA3OyP4-JMruY0Wfn-DWaWvkdbfPiSaY_gco_0Vn/w380-h263/Yossi%20Beilin.jpg" width="380" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">What is a
confederation?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a form of
government in which constituent sovereign states maintain their independence
while merging certain aspects of administration, such as security, defense,
economic or administrative matters. A good example is the confederation
formed by the seceding states during the American Civil War. <span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In a federation on the other hand, such as the modern United States,
the constituent parts may be fiercely independent, but they are not sovereign,
and the emphasis is on the supremacy of the central government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The
vision of achieving peace between Israel and the Palestinians through the
mechanism of a confederation has its passionate supporters. Some conceive it as
including Jordan which, after all, was originally within the British Mandate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span>In 2018, when the Trump peace
proposals were being drawn up, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas
was asked his views on the idea. He is on record as favoring a three-way
confederation of Jordan, Israel and a sovereign Palestine. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The idea of a three-state confederation
covering the whole of what was originally Mandate Palestine might open a
hitherto unexplored path leading away from unending Israel-Palestinian discord.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> A fundamental issue militates against the classic two-state solution. Hamas is massively popular among the Palestinian population, and its central message – that the whole of what had been Mandate Palestine is rightfully the property of Palestinian Arabs – leaves little room for compromise.</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> In the most recent poll of
Palestinian opinion, no less that 64% of those questioned were opposed to a
two-sta</span><span style="font-family: georgia;">te solution. It would mean abandoning any hope of gaining control of the area occupied by Israel. <br /><br /> It will require an Arab consensus – perhaps the Arab League, perhaps an alliance of the Abraham Accord states – to bring the Palestinian leadership to discuss an accommodation which recognizes Israel’s legitimate place in the Middle East. Given Jordan’s collaboration, a post-war conference could be dedicated to establishing a sovereign state of Palestine, but only within the framework of a new three-state confederation of Jordan, Israel and Palestine. This new legal entity – the Jordan, Israel and Palestine Confederation – could be established simultaneously with the state of Palestine. <br /><br /> Dedicated to defending itself and </span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 36pt;">its
constituent sovereign states, it would undertake to cooperate in the fields of
commerce, infrastructure and economic development. There would be no need for a
sovereign Palestine to be a militarized state.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 36pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 36pt;">Defense of the confederation would be undertaken by the IDF in
collaboration with Jordan’s military.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Such a solution, based
on an Arab-wide consensus, could absorb Palestinian extremist objections,
making it abundantly clear that any subsequent armed opposition, from whatever
sourc<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">e, would be crushed by the combined
defense forces of the confederation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">A
confederation could set as its objective the transformation of the region
within, say, ten years, into a thriving financial, commercial and industrial hub
</span>to the benefit of all its citizens – Jordanian, Israeli and Palestinian
alike.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></p><br /><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem post online, 30 January 2024:</span></i></b><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-784240<br /></i></span><div><br /><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></p></div></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-82951957567287374652024-01-22T03:33:00.007+00:002024-01-22T03:35:39.549+00:00South Africa’s case against Israel – the world’s view<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 22 January 2024</i></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt4psgh5HVIVHFpMt7xfX1V8xXIa4ZftzG6Yk1e0Ffms_YSOplHsU9Av9-pFN3owfC8cvir4-0QII2kudd36FLh3oSb4etkzuZ3alfam9TorYrSqMX_l1ATz2ONu6aLc8U7vdkoQCb34GAyM6kNsYzwyNe7387NyCHrdzeWYznG2DIAIl_CQylkUYyGCKw/s816/ICJ.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="816" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt4psgh5HVIVHFpMt7xfX1V8xXIa4ZftzG6Yk1e0Ffms_YSOplHsU9Av9-pFN3owfC8cvir4-0QII2kudd36FLh3oSb4etkzuZ3alfam9TorYrSqMX_l1ATz2ONu6aLc8U7vdkoQCb34GAyM6kNsYzwyNe7387NyCHrdzeWYznG2DIAIl_CQylkUYyGCKw/w587-h334/ICJ.jpg" width="587" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On January 14 <i>Euronews</i>,
the multi-lingual European TV and online news network, published a wide-ranging
survey of where many of the world’s sovereign states stood as regards the
accusation of genocide brought by South Africa against Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">South Africa instituted
the proceedings in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on December 29, 2023,
and on January 11 and 12 public hearings were held at the Peace Palace in The
Hague.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The charge alleges that Israel
has committed, and is committing, genocide against Palestinians in
the Gaza Strip, in violation of the Genocide Convention, and asks the
court to order provisional measures requiring Israel to cease all military
activity in the Strip.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Convention on the
Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide was unanimously adopted by the UN
General Assembly in 1948.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It defined
genocide as "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in
part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">South Africa's request
for provisional measures to be ordered against Israel does not require the
court to determine whether Israel has actually perpetuated genocide, but simply
that it is "plausible" that genocide has occurred.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course if the court grants the provisional
measure request, it would be a strong signal that it is minded to accept South
Africa’s case against Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The nation that has most
firmly rejected South Africa’s genocide charge while proposing to do something
about it is Germany.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On January 11 a
spokesman for the German government announced that Germany is planning to
intervene in support of Israel in the ICJ case.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“The German government
firmly and explicitly rejects the accusation of genocide that has now been made
against Israel before the International Court of Justice,” said spokesman Steffen
Hebestreit. “This accusation has no basis whatsoever.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">He made it clear that Germany
accepts special responsibility for Israel because of the Nazi genocide of Jews
during World War II.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“In view of
Germany’s history, crimes against humanity, and Shoah, the government is
particularly committed to the UN Genocide Convention,” he said. Emphasizing
Germany’s support of the ICJ, he announced that “the government intends to
intervene as a third party in the main hearing.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Under the court’s rules,
if Germany files a declaration of intervention in the case, it would be able to
make legal arguments on behalf of Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One of the 17 judges hearing the case is Germany’s Georg Nolte.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Almost as explicit in
rejecting South Africa’s genocide accusation – though not proposing to
intervene actively – is the UK.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Foreign
minister, Lord Cameron. said: “We don’t agree with what the South Africans are
doing,” </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizD-6glOrFk8w7e48XGAad5KBru60B_p9YIJ9qben_WsAOuoPEzRH69QWkRTPKijxdYyvYSTXKD8mHt3KiQgKtkRclb9Zedc9DmrcA8v1WgcYkF74bFPsLaGicF_gj8O8b3zcc-PneasLhLqm7N5ydjjJX-5MMDhWAua8gcVmKvWP9sFCl8Zu2nJ0z1Air/s870/Cameron.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="870" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizD-6glOrFk8w7e48XGAad5KBru60B_p9YIJ9qben_WsAOuoPEzRH69QWkRTPKijxdYyvYSTXKD8mHt3KiQgKtkRclb9Zedc9DmrcA8v1WgcYkF74bFPsLaGicF_gj8O8b3zcc-PneasLhLqm7N5ydjjJX-5MMDhWAua8gcVmKvWP9sFCl8Zu2nJ0z1Air/w431-h237/Cameron.jpg" width="431" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">while a spokesperson for prime minister Rishi Sunak said he believed
South Africa's case was "completely unjustified and wrong,"
continuing: "The UK government stands by Israel's clear right to defend
itself within the framework of international law." <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Visiting Israel a day
before the court proceedings began, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said
that South Africa's allegations are “meritless" and that the case
“distracts the world” from efforts to find a lasting solution to the conflict. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>US National Security Council spokesman John
Kirby said genocide is “not a word that ought to be thrown around lightly, and
we certainly don’t believe that it applies here.” The President of the ICJ and
Chief Justice is Joan Donoghue, a US lawyer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The <i>Euronews </i>analysis
maintains that no Western country has declared support for South Africa's
allegations against Israel, and that the EU also hasn't commented.. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The majority of countries backing South
Africa's case, it says, are from the Arab world and Africa, while in the Eurozone
only Turkey has publicly stated its support.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>Euronews</i> notes
that neither China nor Russia have said much about the case.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is not, perhaps, surprising in view of
the fact that both are themselves facing accusations of genocide. A case
against Russia, arising from its activities in its war against Ukraine, is
pending in the ICJ, and while China has not been formally charged, it has been
accused of genocide against its Muslim Uyghur population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both nations are represented on the judges’
bench (China by Xue Hanqin, and Russia by the ICJ Vice-President Kirill
Gevorgyan), and neither may feel comfortable about supporting the charge of
genocide against Israel. If actions by Israel clearly falling short of the
"intent" requirement of the Convention are sustained, their own
countries’ interests could be at risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Muslim countries
that declared support for South Africa as soon as it filed its case at the ICJ
were almost all represented by the 57-member strong Organization of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC). Its statement condemned “mass genocide being perpetrated by
the Israeli defense forces” and accused Israel of “indiscriminate targeting” of
Gaza's civilian population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Support also
came from the Arab League and from Pakistan, Malaysia and Namibia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Brazil, which is
represented among the ICJ judges by Leonardo Nemer Caldeira Brant, has
indicated that its president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, backs South Africa's
case.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Brazilian foreign ministry <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>said it hoped the case would get Israel to
“immediately cease all acts and measures that could constitute genocide."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Other countries, while
strongly supporting a cease-fire in Gaza, can see that accusing Israel of
intending to destroy the Palestinian people is a step too far.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example Ireland’s premier, Leo Varadkar –
far from Israel’s best friend – has said he hoped the court would order a
cease-fire in Gaza, but that the genocide case was “far from clear cut.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Innocent civilians
suffering the effects of a conflict which is none of their making naturally
arouses feelings of deep compassion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No
matter that Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) operate under strictly enforced rules
of engagement restricting military action to the targeting of Hamas and its
strongholds, collateral deaths and injuries are inevitable in a war situation –
and even more so in the particular circumstances of the Gaza Strip, where Hamas
has deliberately positioned itself in and among the population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVJlkgmhbu6Oqf2u_ec52r9PSqUGMHoF8b-Z6RaQmKd0KjoN3Ei2OyWwS1Rp7x9H_anNMJcnk62kNJa0TvS83qQTVortoXLX-2hDMz3M36k9Bg-ElXvZcNb1Z_k-ZH9Pp1Bv-ro6iSFaAhy6tDB_hejyYChtEqwMcjgbGvFCDAtnJFcUsn1KFN6gIg0VTc/s797/ICJ-2.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="797" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVJlkgmhbu6Oqf2u_ec52r9PSqUGMHoF8b-Z6RaQmKd0KjoN3Ei2OyWwS1Rp7x9H_anNMJcnk62kNJa0TvS83qQTVortoXLX-2hDMz3M36k9Bg-ElXvZcNb1Z_k-ZH9Pp1Bv-ro6iSFaAhy6tDB_hejyYChtEqwMcjgbGvFCDAtnJFcUsn1KFN6gIg0VTc/w402-h220/ICJ-2.jpg" width="402" /></a></span></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But calling for a
ceasefire ignores a key consequence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Were
the ICJ to order one and were Israel to comply, Hamas would be under no
obligation to stop sending rockets, missiles and drones into Israel (as it is
still doing); nor would it be deterred from repeating the massacre of October 7
“again and again”, as it has undertaken to do. Hamas would continue to hold 132
Israeli hostages, and Israel would be barred from trying to rescue them or
effect their release. In short, Israel would be prohibited from fulfilling
its obligations under international human rights law to protect and defend its
citizens. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">One can only hope that
South Africa’s case will fail to stand up. </span></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online as "The world's view: Reactions to South Africa vs Israel" , 22 January 2024:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-783122</i></span>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-66798998239777976422024-01-16T07:46:00.001+00:002024-01-16T07:46:38.632+00:00A ceasefire in Gaza would only work one way<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>This letter appears in the UK's Daily Telegraph, 16 January 2024 </i></b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6JWVKGd1vKPxl1veJiyrpjrJp50T0Yow0y2w161I8rLxGOEI6oJ71fEhOnDdynQANB6Ou30SPfkUjUUBZRmn7Bv9OQOTgW98WkEFVqrP-j-lbcncuF8X3FQH-wZotEvD-jm2btInHRTnsgZkKStr5VB5O7bS5mnKXO2w3IiDMll1c8508Di5OY3KnqNOs/s797/ICJ-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="797" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6JWVKGd1vKPxl1veJiyrpjrJp50T0Yow0y2w161I8rLxGOEI6oJ71fEhOnDdynQANB6Ou30SPfkUjUUBZRmn7Bv9OQOTgW98WkEFVqrP-j-lbcncuF8X3FQH-wZotEvD-jm2btInHRTnsgZkKStr5VB5O7bS5mnKXO2w3IiDMll1c8508Di5OY3KnqNOs/w552-h303/ICJ-2.jpg" width="552" /></a></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">SIR – South Africa has charged Israel in the International Court of Justice with genocide, and asks the court, as an interim “provisional measure”, to order a ceasefire in Gaza.</span><p></p><p style="background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-variation-settings: "wght" 300, "opsz" 9; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Charles Moore (<a class="ck-custom-link" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/12/accusing-israel-of-genocide-inversion-of-the-truth/" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border-radius: 2px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; margin: 0px -1px; padding: 1px 2px; scroll-margin-top: 32px; text-decoration-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-underline-offset: 2px; touch-action: manipulation; vertical-align: baseline;">Comment, January 13</a>) says that if the court orders this and Israel refuses, it could become a pariah nation, and if it accepts, an endangered one. He leaves the consequences of the latter course to readers’ imagination. </span></p><p style="background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-variation-settings: "wght" 300, "opsz" 9; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Were Israel to comply with an ICJ demand for a ceasefire, Hamas would be under no obligation to stop sending rockets, missiles and drones into Israel (as it is still doing); nor would it be deterred from repeating the massacre of October 7 “again and again”, as it has undertaken to do. Consequently 110,000 internally displaced Israelis, domiciled adjacent to the Israel-Gaza border, would be unable to return to their homes. Hamas would continue to hold 132 Israeli hostages, and Israel would be barred from trying to rescue them or effect their release. </span></p><p style="background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-variation-settings: "wght" 300, "opsz" 9; line-height: 1.55; margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In short, Israel would be prohibited from fulfilling its obligations under international human rights law to protect and defend its citizens. One can only hope that South Africa’s case will fail to stand up. Lord Moore will be aware that Israel is pretty well inured to being a pariah state.<br style="background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit;" /><span style="background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: bolder; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Neville Teller</span><br style="background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit;" />Beit Shemesh, Israel</span></p><div><br /></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-40003755250722699982024-01-16T04:45:00.003+00:002024-01-24T08:09:00.057+00:00Hezbollah – Iran’s pawn<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 16 January 2024</i></b></span> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWzuME2zLdUtC5jdQlYCkqJSIpMksbyvfPCoaknHWVSocVgD9Pi9qpiZMcODva11_XGiLN4peOrSaj85Z2pig5O_mXnBdk2St8jzwqH5eSKjFkphs86rwrkc91Hyi7rUH8vx57eNlC0wsXdGmZJC2nsdrJZxg9xJd9fTEz25PbUI5bqWedKGJh4zJKfGZb/s1023/Khamenei%20with%20Nasrallah.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="1023" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWzuME2zLdUtC5jdQlYCkqJSIpMksbyvfPCoaknHWVSocVgD9Pi9qpiZMcODva11_XGiLN4peOrSaj85Z2pig5O_mXnBdk2St8jzwqH5eSKjFkphs86rwrkc91Hyi7rUH8vx57eNlC0wsXdGmZJC2nsdrJZxg9xJd9fTEz25PbUI5bqWedKGJh4zJKfGZb/w581-h361/Khamenei%20with%20Nasrallah.jpg" width="581" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i> Iran's Supreme Leader meets the head of Hezbollah</i></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> A war with Israel is the last thing that Lebanon needs. The Lebanese people are in the midst of a severe economic downturn, facing soaring prices and severe shortages of food and basic commodities. Hezbollah-allied political, financial and business leaders, the source of the graft and corruption at the heart of the nation, have allowed Lebanon’s economy to deteriorate to crisis level. The nation is in a catastrophic economic situation which has lasted for years. If Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, were to initiate a full-scale conflict with Israel, he would find little support from the hard-pressed Lebanese.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Even the continuous armed skirmishes over the Lebanon-Israel border serve little purpose beyond administering an Israeli tit for a Hezbollah tat. They achieve nothing of any value for either side. Initiated by Hezbollah at the behest of its paymaster, Iran, their true function is to fulfil Iran’s desire to cause as much trouble in the Middle East as possible. </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /><br /> Hezbollah was
established in 1982 specifically to counter Israel’s invasion of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lebanon, undertaken in response to constant attacks
on Israel from Lebanese territory by Palestinian militants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But when the subsequent Israeli occupation
of southern Lebanon ended in 2000, Hezbollah’s aim was achieved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What purpose can the constant armed
interchanges have now?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">One truth, long
unacknowledged in the western world but the cornerstone of Iran’s Islamic
Revolution in 1979, is that the Iranian regime is in relentless pursuit of its
own agenda, namely to dominate the Middle East as a first step toward spreading
the Shi’ite tradition of Islam eventually to the whole world. This was clearly
spelled out by the instigator of Iran’s Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini, on more than one occasion: “We shall export our revolution to
the whole world. Until the cry 'There is no god but Allah' resounds over the
whole world, there will be struggle.”<o:p></o:p></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUp1zyzdy2TnIgD4mNmddg_yP_fbWGdGoP6l6zq_ptA1zlDZyT2afG1maXvGHcPZlI4YXqlbF_Q_KmtNy5UxFA3i_aqOHvsLVhaSQWcm0jCuHsaWCzb1aCBbSE2I-79lz7GFXSR5-9RFW0OZ7vxv0cFN0Io5NpkFavzQ9zOaXgQqM5zHXwkAgDyn1I-pez/s367/khomeini%20(unitedwithIsrael).jpg" style="clear: right; display: inline; float: right; font-family: georgia; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="214" data-original-width="367" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUp1zyzdy2TnIgD4mNmddg_yP_fbWGdGoP6l6zq_ptA1zlDZyT2afG1maXvGHcPZlI4YXqlbF_Q_KmtNy5UxFA3i_aqOHvsLVhaSQWcm0jCuHsaWCzb1aCBbSE2I-79lz7GFXSR5-9RFW0OZ7vxv0cFN0Io5NpkFavzQ9zOaXgQqM5zHXwkAgDyn1I-pez/w382-h223/khomeini%20(unitedwithIsrael).jpg" width="382" /></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As essential stages in this process, the
revolutionary leaders envisaged the overthrow of Zionism (ie Israel) and of
capitalism (ie the US) – a fact which one-time US President Obama, and now
President Biden, have seemed peculiarly reluctant to acknowledge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Time and again attempts at mollifying the
Iranian regime have proved useless – its ultimate aim remains unaltered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It still regards America as the Great Satan,
and Israel as its smaller manifestation – both destined for obliteration.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In pursuit of their objective
Iran’s leaders recognize no bounds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
sponsor terrorist activities and deploy their puppet organizations – among
others, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon – to
undertake them. In Lebanon Iran has nurtured, financed and equipped Hezbollah
ever since 1982 to harry Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UK
media reported on January 12 that Iran is paying Hezbollah fighters a wage of
$1300 per month. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lebanon’s problem as a sovereign state has
been its inability to prevent the accretion of political, social and above all
military power by Hezbollah over the past 40 years – a process that has left
the sovereign state of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lebanon in thrall
to Hezbollah.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In 2024 Hezbollah is
virtually a state within a state, sucking the lifeblood out of Lebanon at the
instigation of Iran.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has effectively
brought Lebanon’s political process to a standstill – since October 31, 2022
the nation has been without a president. and has hobbled along with only
caretaker government ministers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every
attempt to resolve the political difficulties has been frustrated by Hezbollah
and its political allies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As for Hezbollah’s armed
forces, it is generally believed that they are larger and more powerful than
the Lebanese national army.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Hezbollah military has, after all, been in receipt of sophisticated technology
from Iran for years, and has built up a formidable state-of-the-art armory
directed at Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The two armed forces
exist side by side within the same state, and although under the previous
president, Michel Aoun, there was often a degree of collaboration between them,
Hezbollah steers its own course, and is not answerable to Lebanon‘s political
leaders for its activities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hezbollah’s last full-scale clash with Israel
was brought to an end in August 2006 by UN Security Council Resolution 1701. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One main purpose of the resolution was to keep
Hezbollah troops far from the Israel-Lebanon border, thus forestalling any
future conflict.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In accordance with the resolution
15,000 UN international troops, operating alongside the Lebanese army, were
deployed to police the Lebanon-Israel border. There are currently just over
9,500.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Known as UNIFIL (United Nations
Interim Force in Lebanon), they have been in place for the past 18 years, their
authority largely ignored by Hezbollah.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz6aS4DiFd-x6WUnbApPBB2PXbW8J3IBZazrQwXwWjnE1n8f62Ch-a-Hrm-xWIfb1xRrSmqIRmS1CzFuylrfc0MZLwOtWdVzVLTLLFIi0WgF1aMH8gs101plTQMtQLGb1vfkWUNznTvhbu3aTa-UUKyoYC0nMWZ0tABQf1WprUNRty6DqtlqEbBgKd3Ncg/s1200/UNIFIL%20troops.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="1200" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz6aS4DiFd-x6WUnbApPBB2PXbW8J3IBZazrQwXwWjnE1n8f62Ch-a-Hrm-xWIfb1xRrSmqIRmS1CzFuylrfc0MZLwOtWdVzVLTLLFIi0WgF1aMH8gs101plTQMtQLGb1vfkWUNznTvhbu3aTa-UUKyoYC0nMWZ0tABQf1WprUNRty6DqtlqEbBgKd3Ncg/w514-h297/UNIFIL%20troops.jpg" width="514" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Another provision of Resolution
1701 that neither Iran nor Hezbollah had any intention of meeting was the UN’s
strong demand, laid down in previous resolutions, that all armed groups in
Lebanon, other than those of the Lebanese state, should be disarmed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On the day that Resolution
1701 passed unanimously in the UN Security Council, Hezbollah secretary-general,
Hassan Nasrallah, said that Hezbollah would honor the call for a ceasefire
provided Israel agreed to end its military actions. Resolution 1701 was
approved by the Lebanese government one week after it was passed by the UN. As
it did so, Nasrallah reiterated his pledge that once the Israeli offensive ceased,
Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel would also stop<a name="_ednref8"></a><a href="https://idsf.org.il/en/papers/un-security-council-resolution-1701/#_edn8"></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _ednref8;"></span>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In practice, of course,
1701 has failed utterly to maintain stability along the Israel-Lebanon border. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hezbollah, marching to the beat of Iran’s
drum, has prevented UNIFIL from performing its mission.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has used its militia to control the area, has
deployed its forces there, has launched thousands of rockets into Israel, and
has constructed tunnels under the border to enable its terror units to
penetrate Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its bombardment of
Israel with rockets, missiles and drones has been unceasing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UNIFIL has proved ineffective, unwilling to
confront Hezbollah head-on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has
failed to prevent Hezbollah’s continuous activity along the border in blatant
violation of 1701. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For its part, the UN has
failed to insist that its UNIFIL forces actually enforce adherence with its
Resolution 1701.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result Iran,
through its Hezbollah pawn, has been empowered to disrupt regional stability,
just as it has done by fortifying Hamas in Gaza and using the Houthis in Yemen
to attack shipping in the Red Sea and deploy missiles directly into Saudi
Arabia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The perpetual Hezbollah-Israel skirmishes
across the Lebanon border serve no-one’s purposes except those of the Iranian
regime. In the end it will be necessary to tackle the organ-grinder rather than
his monkey.<o:p></o:p></span></p><i><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Published in the Jerusalem Post and in the Jerusalem Post online as "Hezbollah - a pawn in Iran's aim to obliterate Israel", 16 January 2024:</span></b></i><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-782309</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 19 January 2024:</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.eurasiareview.com/19012024-hezbollah-irans-pawn-oped/#:~:text=In%202024%20Hezbollah%20is%20virtually,with%20only%20caretaker%20government%20ministers.</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 24 Januay 2024:</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://mpc-journal.org/hezbollah-irans-pawn/<br /></i></span><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-45180874945302951212024-01-10T07:45:00.003+00:002024-01-15T08:55:50.421+00:00Erdogan - back to square one<p><b><i> </i></b><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Published in the Jerusalem Post, 10 January 2023</span></i></b><b><i></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyeTBjvFM0t1NEbP3vzEFZjpjNoB9JwYBQxvL4_LDg5VZYfLLRyMD-t1tlobN19FRq9JSU4JZ21mz90DS60-XbZGRoQCmMDULuMhL1dhsW4gThQorxrilF2xYHU2irhOWUZdzIbNhi9j5nWcWEFYuqS2spwHxw5Jh_cWm2HSms2PMbe9EaR0rFojTa73nA/s507/Erdogan-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="507" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyeTBjvFM0t1NEbP3vzEFZjpjNoB9JwYBQxvL4_LDg5VZYfLLRyMD-t1tlobN19FRq9JSU4JZ21mz90DS60-XbZGRoQCmMDULuMhL1dhsW4gThQorxrilF2xYHU2irhOWUZdzIbNhi9j5nWcWEFYuqS2spwHxw5Jh_cWm2HSms2PMbe9EaR0rFojTa73nA/w568-h316/Erdogan-3.jpg" width="568" /></a></i></b></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB"> Ever
since Recep Tayyip Erdogan gained power as Turkey’s prime minister in 2003,
Turco-Israeli relations have been on a see-saw, now up, now down – though more
often down than up. This is scarcely
surprising since Erdogan is a deeply committed devotee of the Muslim
Brotherhood, an organization whose DNA is imbued with antagonism towards Jews. However, he is also a consummate politician,
well aware of the need, from time to time, to temper his aversion to Israel</span>
with sweet words and conciliatory gestures.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> On
December 27 Erdogan announced to the world that Israeli prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu was Adolf Hitler reborn, comparing Israel's campaign to destroy Hamas
in Gaza to the systematic annihilation of the Jewish people by the Nazis. In a speech at an event in Ankara, he
demanded of an absent Netanyahu: “How are you any different from Hitler?”
adding, to rapturous applause: “What Netanyahu is doing is no less than what
Hitler did.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A riposte was readily to
hand. Netanyahu resorted to the social
media platform X (once Twitter), and accused Erdogan, with some justification, of
carrying out "genocide against the Kurds." Erdogan, he wrote, “is the last one to give
us a lesson in morals…He holds the world record of imprisoning journalists who
object to his regime."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Anyone familiar with the
to and fro of interchanges between Ankara and Jerusalem would have experienced
a feeling of <span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">déjà vu. This particular exchange of insults was
nothing new. In July 2028, roundly condemning Israel’s just-passed “nation state law”, Erdogan asserted: </span>"Hitler's
spirit has re-emerged in some Israeli leaders." Netanyahu’s response? "Erdoğan is slaughtering Syrians and
Kurds and imprisoning tens of thousands of his fellow citizens,” adding “Turkey
is becoming a dark dictatorship under Erdogan.” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">During his early years
as prime minister, back in the early 2000s, Erdogan was careful not to promote
too radical an agenda too soon. Despite his Islamist views, he made an official
visit to Israel in 2005 to be feted by Israel’s then-prime minister, Ariel
Sharon. However it was not long before
the previously close relations between Turkey and Israel began to sour. The
turning point came in 2009 with the first conflict between Israel and Hamas,
which had seized power in the Gaza strip and had been firing rockets
indiscriminately into Israel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In the annual international gathering at
Davos that year, Erdogan could not restrain himself. Rounding on Israeli president
Shimon Peres, Erdogan called the Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip a
"crime against humanity" and "barbaric." </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk8Y-jy3Y9BPlqHe3aapgFN6WZJsDnsR4ew93aHVmpRtAVhgC_CXAMQUvjHDwf6XsYd2ChXODb06y-vxAsWuDgUOEOTYmN7MNvF4e7mj0eyMm8qpEo-6k-ktx2D34_w3LS7SsughHfMpbtPRRpMXoNQ1nt2MpVoZ5yidXZSKFapKdVStT5ghFXZn92NR_i/s541/Shimon%20Peres-2.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="541" height="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk8Y-jy3Y9BPlqHe3aapgFN6WZJsDnsR4ew93aHVmpRtAVhgC_CXAMQUvjHDwf6XsYd2ChXODb06y-vxAsWuDgUOEOTYmN7MNvF4e7mj0eyMm8qpEo-6k-ktx2D34_w3LS7SsughHfMpbtPRRpMXoNQ1nt2MpVoZ5yidXZSKFapKdVStT5ghFXZn92NR_i/w407-h373/Shimon%20Peres-2.jpg" width="407" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Wagging his finger
at Peres, he declared: "When it comes to killing, you know very well how
to kill. I know very well how you hit and killed children on beaches."
Then, infuriated by the moderator's refusal to allow him more time in response
to Peres's emotional rebuke, he stalked off the stage.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">What followed was the
great barren waste of the <i>Mavi Marmara</i> affair. On May 31, 2010 an encounter on the high seas
between Israeli soldiers and a Turkish flotilla nominally on a humanitarian
mission to Gaza, ended with nine of those on board the leading vessel, the <i>Mavi
Marmara,</i> losing their lives. Erdogan
manipulated the event into a rupture of Turkish-Israeli relations lasting six
years. The affair was finally put to rest only in June 2016. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">When on May 14, 2018 then-US
President Donald Trump formally confirmed his intention to relocate the US embassy
from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Erdogan declared three days of national mourning. The
next day Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador and withdrew its ambassador in
Tel Aviv. In response, Israel expelled Turkey's consul in Jerusalem. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The next two years saw
Turkey’s international standing slump to a new low. By the autumn of 2020 Erdogan was in the
process of purchasing the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system,
designed specifically to destroy aircraft like US’s state-of-the-art
multi-purpose F-35 fighter. Reasonably
enough, Trump refused to allow Turkey, a member of NATO, to acquire it ejecting
Erdogan from the F-35 program and imposing sanctions on Turkey. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The EU had also
sanctioned Turkey. In this case it was in
reaction to Erdogan continuing to explore for gas in what is internationally
recognized as Cypriot waters. The UK, now no longer in the EU, imposed
sanctions on Turkey on the same grounds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Turkey’s relations with
Egypt had been frozen solid ever since 2013, when Muslim Brotherhood president
Mohamed Morsi was ousted by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Erdogan expelled
Egypt’s ambassador, and Sisi reciprocated. Relations with Saudi
Arabia had been overshadowed for years by the assassination of journalist Jamal
Khashoggi in Saudi’s consulate in Istanbul.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As for Israel, it had
long been obvious that Erdogan seized every opportunity to denounce Israel in
the most extravagant terms and to act against it whenever he
could. Not the least of his hostile moves was to support Hamas and
to provide a base in Istanbul for senior Hamas officials, granting at least
twelve of them Turkish citizenship.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In short Turkey, in
pursuit of its own political priorities, had fences to mend with, inter
alia, the US, the EU, the UK, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This was the background
to Erdogan’s sudden and dramatic change of tone on the international stage. Erdogan, or his advisers, must have realized
that to achieve his strategic objective of extending and stabilizing Turkey’s
power base across the Middle East, a fundamental reassessment of tactics was
called for. Out of what must have been a root and branch analysis,
came a plan to address the problem – Turkey would embark on a charm offensive,
involving “reconciliation” or “rebooting” of relationships with one-time
enemies, opponents or unfriendly states. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Accordingly Erdogan set
about making conciliatory overtures to Germany, the EU, Saudi Arabia and even
Greece. Israel, too, received
indications that a rapprochement was sought and, doubtless despite misgivings,
on March 9, 2022 President Herzog became the first Israeli president to visit Turkey
in 15 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In an interview on
Turkish TV at the time, Erdogan said: “This visit could open a new chapter in
relations between Turkey and Israel,” adding that he was “ready to take steps
in Israel’s direction in all areas.” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The new chapter lasted about
18 months. By October 25 he was praising
Hamas as “liberators” and condemning what he described as “the Israeli regime’s
unlawful and unrestrained attacks against civilians.” In short, Erdogan had reverted to his default
mode. </span></p><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post, and in the Jerusalem Post online titled: "Erdogan reverts to old, inflammatory self-opinion" on 10 January 2024:<br /></b>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-781488 </span></i><br /><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in Eurasia Review, 13 January 2024:</i></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.eurasiareview.com/13012024-erdogan-back-to-square-one-oped/</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 15 January 2024:</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://mpc-journal.org/erdogan-back-to-square-one/</i></span></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-77315532703232270902024-01-03T06:04:00.008+00:002024-01-11T13:26:34.516+00:00The Abraham Accords prevail<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 3 January 2023</i></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKVi7LlYmuESrZcqy-2UKxnDKwp0S1Jb5c-bgRDWT5bh-20u2ChNuj7jO2FROvohO8lVOZRRGwFse_itUVd890htLfHdnHuNrX6-Xa8rIxKXgxgQUxrWB3DjNdKp3CJEmX8yL-r0SIDTIV_fSYHBBcdDr_7k1KRxmPZTFg11q4stAkicsuhTgFWr-Ponmz/s510/Abraham%20Accords%20-1.jpg" style="font-weight: bold; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="510" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKVi7LlYmuESrZcqy-2UKxnDKwp0S1Jb5c-bgRDWT5bh-20u2ChNuj7jO2FROvohO8lVOZRRGwFse_itUVd890htLfHdnHuNrX6-Xa8rIxKXgxgQUxrWB3DjNdKp3CJEmX8yL-r0SIDTIV_fSYHBBcdDr_7k1KRxmPZTFg11q4stAkicsuhTgFWr-Ponmz/w413-h301/Abraham%20Accords%20-1.jpg" width="413" /></a></div><p><b><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></b><span lang="EN-GB">On December 4, Time magazine published an
article under the title “It’s time to scrap the Abraham Accords”. The author, a director of a body called
Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), argued that </span>the Hamas attack of
October 7 proved that <span lang="EN-GB">the
assumption on which the Abraham Accords were conceived – </span>that the
Palestinian issue was no longer important in Israel’s relationships in the
region – was wrong. She maintained that
conditions for the Palestinian people had worsened since the Accords were
signed, and that the Gaza war has projected the Palestinian issue back to the
forefront of global concerns. When
signing the Accords, she claimed, the Arab leaders involved “hailed the
agreement as a means to encourage and cajole Israel to take positive steps
toward ending its occupation and annexation of Palestinian territory.” And now, she wrote, “because continued Arab
adherence to the Accords signals continued support for Israel,” DAWN is calling on the Abraham Accords
countries to withdraw from the agreement.</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;">Both her assumptions and
her conclusions are quite incorrect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Israel-Palestine dispute had no bearing on the negotiations leading to the
Abraham Accords and is unrelated to them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The purpose of the Accords is to advance regional security and
stability; pursue regional economic opportunities; promote joint aid and
development programs; and foster mutual understanding, respect, co-existence
and a culture of peace.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">All the Arab leaders concerned
have indicated that normalizing relations with Israel has not affected their
support for Palestinian aspirations. There is a brief reference to this in the
Bahrain agreement, while the Morocco document mentions “the unchanged position
of the Kingdom of Morocco on the Palestinian question.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sheer logic dictates that none of the
signatories perceives their support as involving the elimination of
Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since October 7 none of the four
Abraham Accord signatory states has indicated any desire to withdraw from the
Accords.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhznSvApNa6NnoFVT0EWRmKmvWogDqFvhtq3GyTo5Dk_cOvzbg-UETWfUl8K70VwKveT0-pyPQ33qCDSAie28pW_qmsSroOEtsrCldyMj0vh7-0ddnKWVaeHPkSQFnMc5fF9s-DV1n2FoopYNn7ACsstvqaHwg-AjPK78OG2yMHiT5NEtqn1m7YJlexxiN6/s581/Abraham%20Accords%20signed.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="581" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhznSvApNa6NnoFVT0EWRmKmvWogDqFvhtq3GyTo5Dk_cOvzbg-UETWfUl8K70VwKveT0-pyPQ33qCDSAie28pW_qmsSroOEtsrCldyMj0vh7-0ddnKWVaeHPkSQFnMc5fF9s-DV1n2FoopYNn7ACsstvqaHwg-AjPK78OG2yMHiT5NEtqn1m7YJlexxiN6/w549-h309/Abraham%20Accords%20signed.jpg" width="549" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">Sudan is in the throes
of a devastating civil war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Government
forces are on the back foot, as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
continues its advance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On December 19 it
captured Sudan’s second largest city, Wad Madani.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The future of Sudan, and with it the future
of its normalization with Israel, hangs in the balance.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">In the other Accord countries
– the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco – public opinion undoubtedly
favors Hamas, deplores the high civilian death toll in Gaza and calls for a
ceasefire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result all three states
have been walking a tightrope as regards their official attitude toward the
Israel-Hamas conflict.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All the same, the
Accords are holding firm.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>At one time it seemed as though Bahrain might be wavering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On November 2, Bahrain’s parliament issued an
unusual statement saying that the ambassadors of Israel and Bahrain had each
left their posts and economic ties had been cut.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">"The Zionist
entity’s ambassador has left Bahrain," parliamentarian Mamdooh Al Saleh
said in parliament, “hopefully not to return.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">But the parliament has
no responsibility for foreign affairs, and it soon became clear that
Bahrain-Israeli diplomatic and economic relations were intact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Israel issued a statement confirming that
relations were stable, and one from Bahrain's government mentioned simply that the
envoys had left, without giving any reason. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Iran
has long been engaged in stirring up Bahrain’s Shi'ite population against the Sunni
monarchy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Bahrain is home to the US
Navy Fifth Fleet, and close US relations through the Accords are a vital
bulwark against Iran and too valuable to abandon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also bring Bahrain closer to the wealthy
UAE. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So Bahrain is content to perform
its balancing act – on the one hand seeking to keep the deal intact; on the
other needing to reflect its disagreement with Israel's military campaign in
Gaza. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">The other two Abraham
Accord states face the same problem.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">Despite internal and international
pressure over the mounting toll of the war in Gaza, the UAE does not plan to break
diplomatic ties with Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has
sponsored two resolutions within the UN Security Council of which it is currently
a member.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first, calling
unequivocally for a ceasefire, was vetoed by the US.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The second, after days of intense diplomatic
effort, concentrated on enhancing the flow of humanitarian aid to the
population of Gaza, and was approved on December 22.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">As well as maintaining
its links with Israel, media reports indicate that the UAE has been working to
moderate public positions taken by Arab states, so that once the war ends there
is the possibility of a return to a broad dialogue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition the UAE has been in talks with
Qatar about the possibility of a further Qatari-brokered deal involving the
release by Hamas of some hostages in return for a break in the fighting.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">The Accords were partly
based on a shared concern over the threat posed by Iran. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite an effort at rapprochement early in
2023, the UAE continues to sees Iran as a threat to regional security. So there
seems no prospect of an end to UAE-Israel diplomatic ties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They represent a strategic priority for the
Emirates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">As for Abraham Accords
signatory Morocco, Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal recently scored a resounding own
goal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqiB9d34As0wUm31K_WVYZ6OGZgnTddHVPqMph2XSpdV_pSl2SZjigdJpXPB2u2F886ZO98yL8dnFaEqqIYciM7YKLv5pQp3MWFhzzkhtPXDE6gD2WXKcEEx8a7DjRq3BcjN-abvdFyG6uJ6i-UI73VK2EzK_Z0QY4XgV5Rg6NtMajGxWhxqnuwbaJHD56/s612/Khaled%20Mashaal.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="612" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqiB9d34As0wUm31K_WVYZ6OGZgnTddHVPqMph2XSpdV_pSl2SZjigdJpXPB2u2F886ZO98yL8dnFaEqqIYciM7YKLv5pQp3MWFhzzkhtPXDE6gD2WXKcEEx8a7DjRq3BcjN-abvdFyG6uJ6i-UI73VK2EzK_Z0QY4XgV5Rg6NtMajGxWhxqnuwbaJHD56/w374-h271/Khaled%20Mashaal.jpg" width="374" /></a></div> On November 19, speaking from his
luxury villa in Qatar, he addressed the Moroccan people by way of a video.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Urging them to cut ties with Israel and expel
its ambassador, he declared: “Morocco can correct its mistake,” and called on Moroccans
to take to the streets.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">The reaction was an
outburst of fury on social media from Moroccans condemning the intervention as
a breach of the kingdom’s sovereignty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There
have indeed been a wave of public demonstrations in Morocco supportive of the
Palestinians and condemning the suffering of the Gazan population, but it is a
curious fact of Moroccan life that they are all organized with the state’s
blessing. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The government provides
logistical and security arrangements for demonstrators every weekend, and itself
calls for de-escalation, access to humanitarian aid, and the protection of
civilians in line with international law. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;">On the other hand,
Morocco has not the slightest intention of withdrawing from the Abraham
Accords.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This became clear on November
11 when, at the Arab League summit in Riyadh, Morocco together with Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Mauritania, Djibouti, Jordan, and Egypt, blocked
a proposal to cut ties with Israel.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"> So in complex and
shifting circumstances the Abraham Accords seem in good health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They may yet come into their own in helping
rebuild Gaza once the war has ended. That is when, in the recent words of Jared
Kushner, one of their architects. they may become “more important than ever”.<br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post, and in Jerusalem Post online as "Abraham Accords will outlast Gaza war", on 3 January 2023:<br /></b>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-780487</span></i><br /></p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Eurasia Review, 6 January 2023:</b><br />https://www.eurasiareview.com/06012024-the-abraham-accords-prevail-oped/#:~:text=So%20in%20complex%20and%20shifting,%E2%80%9Cmore%20important%20than%20ever%E2%80%9D.</span></i><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 11 January 2024:</b></span></i><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://mpc-journal.org/the-abraham-accords-prevail/</span></i><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></p><p></p></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-85765167393002824872023-12-27T05:41:00.006+00:002024-01-02T14:02:08.479+00:00Is an Israel-Hezbollah war inevitable?<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 27 December 2023</i></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKT9iT2GggtXx2GOPjLWeTlMfmbegSTII1V28yG6IHVl3RRt9_0EIjl8wbrkzNuHiuqnXQ_V7OUvVYx26BDxsR8m9TYLJy5hhL36yaysJ9WeijA4h69JzhNk8YmKVELpJnRfVhQUvM8H4j9yYDHWi6-4ApzzT_e6WYb5EC8cgT3FZvAOavrFeN-MZA8W5w/s822/Nasrallah.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="822" height="391" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKT9iT2GggtXx2GOPjLWeTlMfmbegSTII1V28yG6IHVl3RRt9_0EIjl8wbrkzNuHiuqnXQ_V7OUvVYx26BDxsR8m9TYLJy5hhL36yaysJ9WeijA4h69JzhNk8YmKVELpJnRfVhQUvM8H4j9yYDHWi6-4ApzzT_e6WYb5EC8cgT3FZvAOavrFeN-MZA8W5w/w599-h391/Nasrallah.jpg" width="599" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In his much-trumpeted speech on November 3, Lebanon’s Hezbollah
leader, Hassan Nasrallah, predictably praised Hamas’s October 7 invasion of
Israel, the subsequent massacre of 1200 civilians and the abduction of some 240
hostages. However he was at pains to
emphasize that it had been a purely Palestinian enterprise. He asserted,
whatever the truth of the matter, that neither Iran nor Hezbollah had had any
part in planning or carrying out the operation, and that in present
circumstances neither found it expedient to support Hamas by opening full-scale
hostilities against Israel. He wanted the subsequent conflict to remain
Palestinian. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Even so, changing circumstances could trigger an escalation of
the fighting to encompass Israel’s northern border. The initiative could come from Iran. An unequivocal defeat of Hamas, known to be
funded and equipped by Iran, could be the trigger. Israel could not be
seen to glory in victory over Iran's proxy, so the baton could be passed to
Hezbollah to continue the conflict. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It might come from Nasrallah.
If Hamas was about to be destroyed, he might feel that Hezbollah could
be the next target, and move to launch a full-scale pre-emptive attack on
Israel. Britain’s prestigious Royal Institute of International Affairs,
otherwise known as Chatham House, in a recent wide-ranging survey of the
prospects of an Israel-Hezbollah war, believes so. It maintains that the closer Israel gets to
defeating Hamas, the more likely it is that Nasrallah will widen the war.
It points out that he heads an army of more than 100,000 battle-hardened
fighters equipped with thousands of missiles, rockets, and armed drones that
can hit targets deep inside Israel with pinpoint accuracy. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">. Incidentally, provided the Iranian
ayatollahs are able to continue fighting Israel by way of their Hezbollah
proxy, they are unlikely to grieve overmuch at the destruction of Hamas. Although happy to use Hamas, to fund, equip
and support it, Iran must always have regarded it as expendable. Hamas is a Sunni organization. The ultimate ambition of Iran’s Islamic
Revolution is to impose the Shi’ite tradition of Islam across the whole
world. Unlike Shi’ite Hezbollah, Hamas
could never form part of Iran’s Shia Crescent.
It would eventually have been cast aside.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Meanwhile, with Iran’s connivance, the Shi’ite Houthis have ramped
up their attacks against shipping in the Red Sea, while the cross-border armed
exchanges between Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been
increasing in number and ferocity. There
are incidents on a daily basis.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Throughout December 24, for example, air raid sirens were
sounding south of the Lebanon border in Avivim, Margaliot, Yiron, Shlomi, and
the border Bedouin village of Arab al-Aramshe.
The IDF attacked the source of rockets launched towards Avivim, and
bombed Hezbollah infrastructure with a tank near Kibbutz Yiron.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There were also alerts in Sasa, Matat, and Dovev following a
suspected enemy drone infiltration and rocket attack. Several rockets were also fired from Lebanon
at the Keren Naftali peak in the Galilee Panhandle. The IDF said it shelled the source of the
fire with artillery, and attacked the source of Hezbollah fire and a cell of
Hezbollah operatives close to the border near Shtula in the Western Galilee. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">And so it goes on, day after day, while the toll in fatalities
and casualties mounts. Seven Israeli
soldiers and four civilians have been killed since October 7, as have 121
Hezbollah fighters and 10 Lebanese civilians.
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Chatham House has pointed out that the initiative for a
full-scale escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is not restricted to
Hezbollah or Iran. It could also come
from the Israeli side. It asserted that
there are those in the Israeli government, including certain ministers, who see
an opportunity in the present situation to neutralize the threat to Israel’s
northern front once and for all. Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet reached that conclusion, said Chatham
House, implying that it is not beyond possibility. If ministers threatened to resign over this
issue, for example, he might change his mind in order to maintain the integrity
of his government.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSacezJMzgn0FfZoLXFjzJpjNdA9qQTTMvJ6E041lqCykBYhztRCYNx8fle8jKRS2P1NOGs1LDwyDCzFbO-L06sUZeNsP00z-74HdannLfKvZjRHqK6mtToPKY7R4RtojGweJZBYsaBpIck0xO4xaspBKetr7TL3TCXTVg9bWXHZTIJ6JbEfYr8MocFjJ0/s1298/Netanyau%20in%20Cabinet.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1298" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSacezJMzgn0FfZoLXFjzJpjNdA9qQTTMvJ6E041lqCykBYhztRCYNx8fle8jKRS2P1NOGs1LDwyDCzFbO-L06sUZeNsP00z-74HdannLfKvZjRHqK6mtToPKY7R4RtojGweJZBYsaBpIck0xO4xaspBKetr7TL3TCXTVg9bWXHZTIJ6JbEfYr8MocFjJ0/w406-h230/Netanyau%20in%20Cabinet.jpg" width="406" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Chatham House is not alone.
In early November the media were reporting concern in Washington about
Israel’s intentions on its northern border. The worries may have been
accelerated by the mass evacuations of Israeli towns and villages within easy
striking distance of the Lebanon border.
Almost certainly undertaken by Israel to pre-empt any possible Hezbollah
invasion on the lines of Hamas’s murderous incursion of October 7, suspicious
minds in Washington may have seen in it preparations by Israel for a second
front.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Under the headline: “Scoop”, the on-line news media Axios
reported on November 12 that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had phoned his
Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, the previous day to urge restraint in the
escalating tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border. According to Axios there
was growing anxiety in the White House that Israeli military action
in Lebanon could lead to a regional war.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXwrhg61D9ZIk7qst-UGKrw8GB-1CqrzbvvOwoDFcpXZ3GkBWdu-nUJbB2P51kUmodT_VelFTeXkUfHOfjZsyCsD8r8EsDddrwM9Vu61W-FLcxAjD8oIyehIHfzV0cTclcOrVZhBVJSuI4Ru52Z7jVOE4vG98QTFy3YuSceXWqm26hlqIR_6kfmCqGgxMb/s800/Lloyd%20Austin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="574" data-original-width="800" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXwrhg61D9ZIk7qst-UGKrw8GB-1CqrzbvvOwoDFcpXZ3GkBWdu-nUJbB2P51kUmodT_VelFTeXkUfHOfjZsyCsD8r8EsDddrwM9Vu61W-FLcxAjD8oIyehIHfzV0cTclcOrVZhBVJSuI4Ru52Z7jVOE4vG98QTFy3YuSceXWqm26hlqIR_6kfmCqGgxMb/w394-h283/Lloyd%20Austin.jpg" width="394" /></a></span></div><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Moreover, according to Chatham House, the White House believes
some senior officers in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) believe that a war in
the north is inevitable. It is the possibility
of a pre-emptive Israeli strike, leading to a forceful Hezbollah response, that
concerns Washington, since the US would inevitably be drawn into such a
conflict. The last thing US President Joe Biden wants during re-election season
is a war between Israel and Hezbollah that could lead the US into a direct
confrontation with Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">So the US is intent on avoiding all-out war between Israel and
Hezbollah. In an attempt to deter Hezbollah from launching deadlier attacks
against northern Israel, Biden has ordered the deployment of a substantial
amount of additional military assets to the Middle East, including an aircraft
carrier, warships, a nuclear-powered vessel, attack helicopters, fighter jets,
and 5,000 sailors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><a name="_Hlk153740734"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On December 15 US National Security
adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that the US believes the threat to Israel
from Hezbollah “can be dealt with through diplomacy and does not require the
launching of a new war.” The best way to
ensure that the tens of thousands of Israelis who have evacuated their homes in
the north can return, he said, “is to come up with a negotiated outcome.” <o:p></o:p></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Is an Israel-Hezbollah
war possible? Certainly. Is it inevitable? Surely not.<o:p></o:p></span></p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 27 December 2023, and in the Jerusalem Post online as "Israel-Hezbollah war is possible but not inevitable":</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-779648</span></i><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in Eurasia Review, 29 December 2023:</i></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.eurasiareview.com/29122023-is-an-israel-hezbollah-war-inevitable-oped/#:~:text=Britain's%20prestigious%20Royal%20Institute%20of,Nasrallah%20will%20widen%20the%20war.</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the MPC Journal, 2 January 2024:</i></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://mpc-journal.org/is-an-israel-hezbollah-war-inevitable/</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-54013994231579204262023-12-18T05:01:00.009+00:002023-12-25T09:55:58.880+00:00What’s in store for Hamas and its leaders?<p><i><b style="font-family: arial;">Published in the Jerusalem Post, 18 December 2023</b></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVrke4bWCIcGp7n-Hx217Rw_FRhXhXnfNnXHcxabFavdsBEQ-usJc2Xy8hJmoKowAwIQX_IzU2J0lGfdb6rHZkE6VI_ieGe-Gp5vgnUorRbupGOGBBRm80qi13BPvcAZgY7P0r-tLkraqwvcYwPZl3t7K3_rwGEbTRF_S5BTI-_Lo8XrnYdBwRIEP1tpXi/s822/Ronen%20Bar%20-%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="822" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVrke4bWCIcGp7n-Hx217Rw_FRhXhXnfNnXHcxabFavdsBEQ-usJc2Xy8hJmoKowAwIQX_IzU2J0lGfdb6rHZkE6VI_ieGe-Gp5vgnUorRbupGOGBBRm80qi13BPvcAZgY7P0r-tLkraqwvcYwPZl3t7K3_rwGEbTRF_S5BTI-_Lo8XrnYdBwRIEP1tpXi/w524-h342/Ronen%20Bar%20-%202.jpg" width="524" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: arial; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><br /></div><i><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The leaders of Hamas responsible for the pogrom of October 7 will be hunted down and eliminated, even if it takes years</span></i><p></p><p> <span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">On November 30 the Wall Street Journal (WSJ),
in what appears to have been a world exclusive, published a detailed report of
discussions said to have taken place between US and Israeli officials about
possible plans for shortening the war in Gaza.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The report indicates that these official level
discussions are following up options suggested by Israel’s political and
military leadership of ways to disempower Hamas. One favoured approach
turns to a precedent set in 1982. At that time the Palestine
Liberation Organization (PLO) under Yasser Arafat had entrenched inside within
Lebanon, and then–prime minister Ariel Sharon had authorised Israeli forces to
invade and advance into the country. In an attempt to dislodge the PLO,
Israel was besieging the capital Beirut. The US brokered a deal with Israel
under which US, French and Italian troops entered Beirut and oversaw the
departure of Arafat and his organization for a new base in Tunisia.. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is, of course, no
question of offering the Hamas leadership the chance to escape with their
thousands of followers to some country prepared to accept them. Planners
are aware that though neither Hamas nor the PLO has any qualms about the use of
terrorist tactics, the PLO is essentially a secular, political organisation
while Hamas is a jihadist group inspired by extremist Islamist philosophy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hamas, unlike the PLO, would not respond
favourably to a deal involving expulsion from what they consider their
land. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The idea under
consideration is to capture <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and
expel thousands of lower-level Hamas fighters from the Gaza Strip, thus cutting
away Hamas's power base – namely the tens of thousands of Hamas fighters it
controls. If achieved, this would undoubtedly contribute to the collapse
of Hamas and shorten the war. It would also prevent the group from ever
retaking power, thus enabling Gaza to become governable in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The process may have
started. In a statement released on December 11, the IDF announced:
"More than 500 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists have been
apprehended by the IDF and Shin Bet over the past month and transferred for
further questioning.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As for the Hamas
leadership, the WSJ had yet another revelation up its sleeve. On December
1 it asserted that, according to Israeli officials, the intelligence
services were preparing a covert operation akin to that following the Munich
Olympics massacre in 1972. The report was later confirmed by Shin Bet
chief Ronen Bar in a domestic broadcast on December 3. Those leaders
of the Hamas organization responsible for planning, organizing and perpetrating
the invasion and pogrom of October 7, he said, would be hunted down and
eliminated, even if it took years and no matter where they were living, or
wherever they might choose to settle after their defeat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The WSJ, citing unnamed
senior Israeli and US officials, says another option, floated by the Israel
Defense Forces, is to form a “Gaza Restoration Authority” backed by Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, tasked with rebuilding a Hamas-free Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A major obstacle to this
plan, the report says, is a fundamental disagreement between Israel and the US
about whether the Palestinian Authority (PA) would, or should, be part of such
a solution. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and a number of
Washington spokespersons, have said repeatedly that the settled US vision of
the post-war future is the unification of the governance of Gaza and the West
Bank under the PA, leading to peace negotiations with a two-state solution as
their goal. </span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This unchanged US view
was repeated by vice-president Kamala Harris, speaking at the Cop28 summit in
Dubai on December 2. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwrpDzlJ2OJ4uSN0CL0gYM1po3bgO-xC9eN_pHs28xEbA3CuAF4dG1csSxfSJ6nLORLdqhlqhuN1KOuMe0viyCdGfgPzyssRWfSWSU8tq_l4nn19PSgSnX01-Z6nCONcZ6NZC5ABHECdUdJyM8Zu6QHoMpGIPi96ICnW_fnMUafThC4m3Z87ScIXb1zGp0/s680/Kamala%20Harris.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="680" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwrpDzlJ2OJ4uSN0CL0gYM1po3bgO-xC9eN_pHs28xEbA3CuAF4dG1csSxfSJ6nLORLdqhlqhuN1KOuMe0viyCdGfgPzyssRWfSWSU8tq_l4nn19PSgSnX01-Z6nCONcZ6NZC5ABHECdUdJyM8Zu6QHoMpGIPi96ICnW_fnMUafThC4m3Z87ScIXb1zGp0/w403-h227/Kamala%20Harris.jpg" width="403" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Post-war reconstruction efforts in Gaza, she said,
must be undertaken “in the context of a clear political horizon for the
Palestinian people towards a state of their own, led by a revitalized
Palestinian Authority…”<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Netanyahu, however, has
made it clear that Israel would not agree to allow the PA, as presently
constituted, to have any part in the future governance of Gaza. On
December 12, after a conversation with US President Joe Biden, he virtually rejected
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the US aspiration of an eventual
two-state solution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He would not allow
Gaza, he said, to be ruled by those who “teach, support or fund terrorism”,
thereby ruling out both Hamas and the Fatah-run PA.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEKolBJOZoGZx5Yj7ZoFbC3a44dX6bdMqnTeRBb4bG74hn6-QaLFZ6v-0UcwI7j2R0AdxuAod4T57UBQpsWxRhg76ZLqgtYcLINdX3i687rGXGeT2ciAHzQRWt0MLOCVSsnKUkbxeJb3lu0cRG296RgwmCU5feW1QgGyG-o0jpaCAPjAR-yB78BBz9Cy2T/s729/Netanyau%20in%20cabinet.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="729" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEKolBJOZoGZx5Yj7ZoFbC3a44dX6bdMqnTeRBb4bG74hn6-QaLFZ6v-0UcwI7j2R0AdxuAod4T57UBQpsWxRhg76ZLqgtYcLINdX3i687rGXGeT2ciAHzQRWt0MLOCVSsnKUkbxeJb3lu0cRG296RgwmCU5feW1QgGyG-o0jpaCAPjAR-yB78BBz9Cy2T/w454-h258/Netanyau%20in%20cabinet.jpg" width="454" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Biden sees the
right-wing elements in Netanyahu’s government behind this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a speech on December 12, he is reported as
saying that Netanyahu “has to change this government,” adding that Israel
ultimately “can’t say no” to a Palestinian state.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A problem given little
emphasis so far in the media is that, in addition to Hamas, other groups such
as Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), control thousands of gunmen who not only
took part in the October 7 atrocities, but are also holding hostages. On
November 27 CNN, based on a highly-placed diplomatic source, reported that more
than 40 hostages taken from Israel into Gaza on October 7 are not currently in
the custody of Hamas, but were being held by PIJ or other unidentified groups
or individuals. If accurate, this report complicates not only any future
truce agreement, but also the wider issue of what an Israeli victory in the
Gaza Strip might mean.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On November 28 the armed
wing of PIJ, the Al Quds Brigades, said that it had handed over “some civilian
detainees” as part of an exchange with Israel. And indeed, together with
Hamas gunmen, fighters from PIJ were seen handing over 17-year-old Mia Leimberg.
This was the first time that PIJ, or any other party, had publicly acknowledged
being involved in negotiations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As regards future truce
agreements, the terms have so far required Hamas to hand over hostages in
exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. They depend on Hamas
actually possessing the hostages to fulfill their part of the agreement.
If Hamas does not, and cannot persuade other groups to participate in any
future deal, the only recourse left to Israel would be to locate the hostages
itself by achieving a complete victory over opposing forces in the
Strip. Subsequently, Israel would have to treat all militant groups
and their leaders exactly as how they plan to deal with Hamas and its
leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Whichever way they
look, the future for Hamas, its allies and their leaders seems bleak.
Perhaps on October 7 they bit off rather more than they could chew.</span><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">P</span><b>ublished in Jerusalem Post, 18 December 2023:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-778420</span></i></p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 23 December 2023:</b><br />https://www.eurasiareview.com/23122023-whats-in-store-for-hamas-and-its-leaders-oped/</span></i><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 25 December 2023:</b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://mpc-journal.org/whats-in-store-for-hamas-and-its-leaders/</span></i></div></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-9960778095180050012023-12-13T08:21:00.002+00:002023-12-25T21:20:13.107+00:00The governance of post-war Gaza<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Report, issue dated 25 December 2023</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWoEO1ybI3uplZSsEZ0DbTt1fP4Jq6N5z7xIUvIVQ7E3hHWLJhWrZhEYeR6xoku2LLcHePpkoiXtcDeuLQIXTzVHZTJ2p3FcM_7p3KlIqxgD5yI_kw-aykkGOtokYjUfXcbz0r250w4Qibjt-CAa4gKlPKENk-9PRQwk__8_7ul4PyvWGK7xTDTicGZRIP/s801/Blinken,%203%20Nov%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="433" data-original-width="801" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWoEO1ybI3uplZSsEZ0DbTt1fP4Jq6N5z7xIUvIVQ7E3hHWLJhWrZhEYeR6xoku2LLcHePpkoiXtcDeuLQIXTzVHZTJ2p3FcM_7p3KlIqxgD5yI_kw-aykkGOtokYjUfXcbz0r250w4Qibjt-CAa4gKlPKENk-9PRQwk__8_7ul4PyvWGK7xTDTicGZRIP/w574-h311/Blinken,%203%20Nov%202023.jpg" width="574" /></a></b></span></div><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Stated briefly, Israel’s war aims as
articulated by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, government ministers and
Israel Defense Force (IDF) leaders are to </span>destroy Hamas and ensure the
safe return of the 240-odd civilians it is holding hostage. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The realization is
growing that by the time the IDF have succeeded, a plan for Gaza's future governance
must have been developed, agreed by those involved, and be ready for
Implementation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On November 2 the Reuters
news agency, citing authoritative sources, reported that the US and Israel were
exploring options for the future of the Gaza Strip, including a possible
multinational force to keep the peace until a more stable leadership is
established.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such a scenario builds on US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s concept, laid out during his recent visit
to Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He said that he understood that
Israel did not want to control Gaza, and he believed a revitalized Palestinian
Authority (PA) should eventually be in charge of the territory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On November 6 both the
rumoured US-Israel negotiations and Blinken’s suggestion were apparently nullified.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a TV interview Netanyahu said for the
first time: “Israel will, for an indefinite period, have the overall security
responsibility, because we have seen what happens when we do not have it.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh04m9khLlMva0zX-qu3XjxV09VBqaPcEYf81_ngats3wKmbn-i3HbpIUUevOF4iwFsFwB7YRWVD2WXEzDpvjKK844kqmUEc4vfg3-_zJFTkeU1HHf_W1m0jvBQvouyGzetJHZ3H-GDnuTTvVCLCTkvW6NSn_GwH9StOhPAl2sZiopsBEqOgf-lu11Cm6CQ/s729/Netanyau%20in%20cabinet.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="729" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh04m9khLlMva0zX-qu3XjxV09VBqaPcEYf81_ngats3wKmbn-i3HbpIUUevOF4iwFsFwB7YRWVD2WXEzDpvjKK844kqmUEc4vfg3-_zJFTkeU1HHf_W1m0jvBQvouyGzetJHZ3H-GDnuTTvVCLCTkvW6NSn_GwH9StOhPAl2sZiopsBEqOgf-lu11Cm6CQ/w418-h238/Netanyau%20in%20cabinet.jpg" width="418" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">His statement was as surprising
for what he said as for what he omitted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Maintaining that IDF forces would be stationed in Gaza for an indefinite
period after the fighting had ceased seems to imply an intention for Israel to repossess
the Strip.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What Netanyahu omits is any
indication of how he sees Gaza being administered post-Hamas, and by whom.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who would be responsible for redeveloping the
ruined city, for housing the displaced people returning to their home areas,
for administering the essential services?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Surely Netanyahu does not envisage a military occupation of Gaza on the
lines of Area C in the West Bank.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Speaking in Japan on
November 8, Blinken, while acknowledging that "some transition
period" might be needed at the end of the conflict, virtually rejected
Netanyahu’s vision of continued and indefinite IDF presence in Gaza
post-war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He strongly advocated a united
and Palestinian-led government for a united Gaza–West Bank after the war ends,
as a step toward Palestinian statehood. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“We’re very clear on no reoccupation,” he
said, “just as we’re very clear on no displacement of the Palestinian
population.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>A
few weeks into the war, the Washington Institute published a thoughtful
analysis of what might follow an Israeli victory over Hamas.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsl4A4730_wmZXLAzfkXqYxsCiF1EkExVABkWLUP3mpM3TTfIBAxdZayvWCAoBS_Xw1S41XqA1Mu7mjoWYoJJMAC2lfFu2PQnV4n217hXbBQlfgBvrJjo_YCGlDW5v4FBx8QXVusYQ3EMHCP7HA_5w5kowzG1HyeUx1ps8InuCrJjpnFJFDFGB8n49J0hP/s450/Washington%20Inst%20logo.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsl4A4730_wmZXLAzfkXqYxsCiF1EkExVABkWLUP3mpM3TTfIBAxdZayvWCAoBS_Xw1S41XqA1Mu7mjoWYoJJMAC2lfFu2PQnV4n217hXbBQlfgBvrJjo_YCGlDW5v4FBx8QXVusYQ3EMHCP7HA_5w5kowzG1HyeUx1ps8InuCrJjpnFJFDFGB8n49J0hP/s320/Washington%20Inst%20logo.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /> As a starting
point they acknowledged that it would be a mistake for Israel to destroy Hamas
and then leave Gaza as an ungoverned space without a clear sense of what comes
next. They insisted that the US and others must ensure that a plan is ready to
be implemented once the IDF withdraws.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What the Institute did not consider was Netanyahu’s latest proposal – that
the IDF might actually remain in place to guarantee that the Strip no longer
posed any sort of security threat to Israel.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
idea of a Gaza administered under some as yet undefined group or consortium,
with the IDF as its security force, bristles with difficulties, and is almost
certainly a non-starter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moreover Blinken’s
idea that the PA would eventually take over the administration of Gaza simply could
not work with the PA in its present condition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The PA is currently
riddled with corruption and inefficiency. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>President Mahmoud Abbas, who is scarcely
capable of controlling the situation in Areas A and B of the West Bank, areas
nominally under its control, is profoundly unpopular with the Palestinian
public. In the most recent poll of Palestinian opinion, nearly 80% said he
should step down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So an essential
prerequisite before Blinken’s ideas could be put into effect would be meaningful,
substantive PA reform.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without obvious
and significant changes to its administrative structure and methods of operation,
neither local Palestinians nor international donors would have confidence in
the its ability to extend its authority to Gaza. <b><i><u><o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Washington Institute
hypothesized that a proposed Gaza Interim Administration (GIA) should have
three main components:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a civilian
administration; a law enforcement system; and an international coalition for
reconstruction and development.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">They believe that the
civilian administration of post-Hamas Gaza should be led and run by
Palestinians. The departments of a fully functioning local government – health,
education, transportation, judiciary, social welfare – should, they maintain,
be operated by a mix of technocrats and administrators from Gaza, the West
Bank, and the Palestinian diaspora. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">They envisage public
safety and law enforcement being directed by a consortium of those Arab states
which have reached peace or normalization agreements with Israel. Only
those states, it opines, would have Israel’s confidence, which is essential for
the effort to succeed. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">They suggest that a new Arab-run
agency responsible for repair, reconstruction, and development should be
established. Billions of dollars would be needed to reconstruct Gaza city
and to fund projects such as creating a new Gaza port and building new
industrial zones to provide employment options. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Finally, the Institute
believes that while Arab administrators, officers, and officials, obviously including
Palestinians, should take the lead in all these efforts, the US and other
supporters of a peaceful, constructive future for Palestinians would have a
vital role to play in conceiving the plans, and in supporting those entrusted
to carry them forward. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Whether the ideas put
forward by the Washington Institute come to fruition, or others, perhaps more
radical, emerge, how Gaza is to be governed after the IDF have achieved their victory
over Hamas clearly requires urgent and detailed consideration. Diplomatic
efforts, led by the US, must be initiated as soon as possible aimed at
establishing an effective mechanism for planning Gaza’s post-war future. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Report issue dated 25 December 2023, and on the Jerusalem Post website under the title: "Israel-Hamas War: Finding rulers for Gaza when the fighting ends" on 23 December 2023:<br /></b>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-779070</span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i></i></b></span><p></p>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-47878717750191035662023-12-11T06:13:00.008+00:002023-12-11T06:51:36.022+00:00UN chief Guterres: right problem, wrong solution<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in Jerusalem Post, 11 December 2023</i></b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWS6oDuh8r346-Ml4VmEDaS2y7RoU7GmBoEPBDX-39NWhyVeN2X-uFGxFb6LNyHfrgbu1Y0F2wDVJNKf2KvdE-KwO7nuRZCEBe16J5l6M5KZJL_UBbefSwDexRRiSr8PhMtcPYTnREe0n7EebNHywMfybkruJjiph4cGZqvsZfKxN8ZzAkAI47eTPb6NV/s842/Guterres-4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="842" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWS6oDuh8r346-Ml4VmEDaS2y7RoU7GmBoEPBDX-39NWhyVeN2X-uFGxFb6LNyHfrgbu1Y0F2wDVJNKf2KvdE-KwO7nuRZCEBe16J5l6M5KZJL_UBbefSwDexRRiSr8PhMtcPYTnREe0n7EebNHywMfybkruJjiph4cGZqvsZfKxN8ZzAkAI47eTPb6NV/w521-h347/Guterres-4.jpg" width="521" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">On December 5 UN secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, wrote to the 15 members of the Security Council invoking Article 99 of the UN Charter. This article states that the secretary-general may bring to the attention of the Security Council any matter which, in his opinion, “may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security.”<br /><br /></span><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;"> <span style="font-family: georgia;">In his letter, Guterres called
on the Security Council to vote in favor of a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas
conflict in order to avert a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. </span></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes; text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;">He said that the weeks of fighting had
“created appalling human suffering, physical destruction and collective trauma
across Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory” (the UN persists in
regarding the Gaza Strip as territory occupied by Israel, despite the fact that
Israel </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes; text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;">totally evacuated the enclave in 2005).
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes; text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;">He warned that “an even worse situation
could unfold, including epidemic diseases,” and concluded: “The international
community has a responsibility to use all its influence to prevent further
escalation and end this crisis.”</span></span></div><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXbFC9MXfFoJ1KzxZiPLEBWYGU15ZDgluw1RNIAshM7VhCp2jzuCriqtzXX0bPLqLmWMHau-YzTbynRVSItWwIlSmDjon4lRduuLz_3JHqz9loClMelm9qe7UVT0_DmWmoAAMNvXsJZCxj_ivafq0fxXicJLO1mFRV2aXeZ1NNCG6mZgdqjGZ1EpoDZJa6/s700/Stephane%20Dujarric.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="700" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXbFC9MXfFoJ1KzxZiPLEBWYGU15ZDgluw1RNIAshM7VhCp2jzuCriqtzXX0bPLqLmWMHau-YzTbynRVSItWwIlSmDjon4lRduuLz_3JHqz9loClMelm9qe7UVT0_DmWmoAAMNvXsJZCxj_ivafq0fxXicJLO1mFRV2aXeZ1NNCG6mZgdqjGZ1EpoDZJa6/w330-h186/Stephane%20Dujarric.jpg" width="330" /></a></span>UN spokesman Stéphane
Dujarric said this was the first time Guterres had felt compelled to invoke Article
99 since taking office in 2017, and he hoped the Security Council “will be
moved to push and put in place a humanitarian ceasefire.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">Soon after Guterres’s
letter was published, a resolution drafted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was
submitted to the Security Council.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">It demanded
an immediate ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">To pass, a Security
Council resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the five
permanent members – US, Russia, China, France or Britain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When put to the vote on December 8 the UAE
resolution received 13 votes in favor, the UK abstained, and the US exercised
its veto.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While in the drafting
phase the US had proposed substantial amendments to the text, including a
condemnation of "the terrorist attacks by Hamas in Israel, including those
on 7 October 2023." <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The UAE did not
add this to the text.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Britain's UN Ambassador Barbara Woodward said her country
abstained because there was no condemnation of Hamas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>"Israel needs to be able to address the
threat posed by Hamas,” she told the council, “and it needs to do so in a
manner that abides by international humanitarian law so that such an attack can
never be carried out again."</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiHPCoagNOKVKg_REWB2hraxAbhB1zAhGA1p7grs9xwt1dkYrU8rCCjGFuEmgKgn0ch1FRbXYf6c83OUCBwJ1qDZbY9oKNvo4H948cVtjJLZpy6vhaEvloWga0-CA2PLLpoouafs6EnHC9j9pVEFT9Bcrg-g19_PnRhwvOJwqQQjBbtDwvV0zvhUa0Pmrj/s616/Barbara%20Woodward.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="616" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiHPCoagNOKVKg_REWB2hraxAbhB1zAhGA1p7grs9xwt1dkYrU8rCCjGFuEmgKgn0ch1FRbXYf6c83OUCBwJ1qDZbY9oKNvo4H948cVtjJLZpy6vhaEvloWga0-CA2PLLpoouafs6EnHC9j9pVEFT9Bcrg-g19_PnRhwvOJwqQQjBbtDwvV0zvhUa0Pmrj/w395-h313/Barbara%20Woodward.jpg" width="395" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Deputy US Ambassador to
the UN, Robert Wood, told the council that the draft resolution was a rushed, unbalanced
text "that was divorced from reality…We do not support this resolution's
call for an unsustainable ceasefire that will only plant the seeds for the next
war." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Guterres was right to
draw attention to the dire and deteriorating living conditions within the Gaza
Strip, but his proposed solution – the Security Council voting in favor of a
ceasefire – is misconceived on practical grounds, if on no other. “Ceasefire”
is universally defined as an agreement between two armed forces to stop
fighting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Security Council cannot
impose one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The UN could certainly
request Israel, a sovereign member, to lay down its arms unilaterally, but how can
the Security Council, in Dujarric’s words, “put in place a humanitarian
ceasefire”?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What influence does the
Security Council have on Hamas that could induce it to stop firing rockets
indiscriminately into Israel?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In reality what Guterres is seeking is for
Israel to cease its efforts to eliminate Hamas, thus allowing the terrorist
organization to retain its control of the Gaza Strip, continuing into an
indefinite future its unremitting intention of destroying Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Instead of throwing a
lifeline to Hamas by way of a ceasefire, Guterres should be urging the Security
Council to encourage an increased flow of humanitarian aid into the Strip.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At present the provision of aid is
haphazard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Agencies send what they can
when they can,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A special UN agency could
be established, charged with coordinating the efforts of the UN, governments,
non-governmental agencies and charities to bring much enhanced relief to the
civilian population, adequate to provide for its needs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Among the partners
providing the humanitarian cargoes are the US, the EU, the World Health Organization
(WHO), the World Food Program (WFP), the International Organization for
Migration (IOM), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The work of these agencies needs to be
coordinated and enhanced by recruiting other partners willing to contribute to
a major humanitarian effort, so that the flow of aid can be brought up to the
level required.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here is where Guterres
should be devoting his efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As for Israel, the
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are taking the greatest care to avoid violating
internationally accepted laws of war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Information released to the public daily demonstrates the steps they are
taking, over and above what is strictly required of them, to minimize the
effect on the civilian population of their anti-Hamas campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are even distributing maps indicating
exactly where they next intend to attack Hamas - while on December 7 Israeli
military spokesman Elad Goren told reporters that the Kerem Shalom border
crossing will open “in the next few days “as another inspection station to
expedite the entry of more humanitarian assistance into Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is another button
Guterres could be pressing – urging the Security Council to demand that Hamas
and its allied terrorist groups release all hostages immediately, on pain of
being charged in the International Criminal Court as war criminals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Taking hostages is accepted universally as a
war crime under international law, and if found guilty its perpetrators can be
arrested and tried in over 170 countries world-wide. Perhaps a word from the UN’s
secretary-general underlining the legal consequences of holding hostages would
help bring about their release.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj6PYA2_BpFSpb3WkDMUrzuVBMlTosGlS6z_A5VlDR2AwBy7oroWlQhzjAp86aFhsEtz8WIgbyFJPctVs28Z0u049tRIg5p8DZnlulRf77V6BviaP9WOb187BtM4k2s6Sh9JO1L4WibzStIA9EJpBhe2efRFYEf8uCbakSDICNmrEJKQndnaaJggRkQrlt/s652/Robert%20Wood.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="652" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj6PYA2_BpFSpb3WkDMUrzuVBMlTosGlS6z_A5VlDR2AwBy7oroWlQhzjAp86aFhsEtz8WIgbyFJPctVs28Z0u049tRIg5p8DZnlulRf77V6BviaP9WOb187BtM4k2s6Sh9JO1L4WibzStIA9EJpBhe2efRFYEf8uCbakSDICNmrEJKQndnaaJggRkQrlt/w356-h232/Robert%20Wood.jpg" width="356" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Deputy US Ambassador
Wood said recently, “we remain focused on the difficult and sensitive diplomacy
geared to getting more hostages released, more aid flowing into Gaza, and
better protection of civilians.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These
are the issues that should also be Guterres’s top priorities in the on-going
Israel-Gaza conflict .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Meanwhile the faster the
IDF can finish the job of disempowering Hamas and its allies, the faster Gazans
can take the first steps towards recovery, and a future free from the baleful
influence of the Islamist terror group which has deprived them of freedom and
prosperity for seventeen years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post </b></span></i><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>and in the Jerusalem Post online titled: "UN Secretary-General has the wrong solution", on 1</b></span></i><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>1 December 2023:</b></span></i><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-777458</span></i></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-26166307202501027372023-12-05T05:47:00.002+00:002023-12-11T09:51:14.910+00:00Taking hostages is a war crime<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 5 December 2023</i></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_PnQNE1gYOT5I6ry7_huwxxus7z-ihdwTRs2XxQwLG3yjIYvQLSuA6J9iE_m36C0-NII2_vWKpOzvs2H7AuowbZLarG3-jpqPeEJ7I3XJ_N4R_EZ8DGx6gRYOkkY-6dqW7aB9EV3b_pVRnXkYmFursop7WgTUJmqLG42skO7O_2xRDvcLrP7wTT4CqE3d/s800/Navi%20Pillay.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="800" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_PnQNE1gYOT5I6ry7_huwxxus7z-ihdwTRs2XxQwLG3yjIYvQLSuA6J9iE_m36C0-NII2_vWKpOzvs2H7AuowbZLarG3-jpqPeEJ7I3XJ_N4R_EZ8DGx6gRYOkkY-6dqW7aB9EV3b_pVRnXkYmFursop7WgTUJmqLG42skO7O_2xRDvcLrP7wTT4CqE3d/w557-h371/Navi%20Pillay.jpg" width="557" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The events of October 7
have proved too flagrant to be ignored by the body that is supposed to be the
world’s watchdog on protecting and advancing human rights.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The UN Human Rights
Council (UNHRC) was established in 2006 with one over-riding purpose – to
rectify the egregious faults of its predecessor body, the UN Commission on
Human Rights (UNCHR). Over the 60 years of its existence the Commission had
accrued a raft of objectionable practices, high among them an obvious
anti-Israel bias. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">UNHRC is UNHCR with just
one letter transposed, and it soon became obvious that all the UN had done was
to substitute Tweedledee for Tweedledum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It did not take long before the same anti-Israel stance began to emerge
from the new Council.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since its founding
it has passed more than 90 resolutions condemning Israel – more than against
Iran, Syria, North Korea, China, Russia, Cuba and Venezuela combined. The
Council would have the world believe that Israel is more guilty of human rights
abuses than all the blatant abusers of human rights put together.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Its determined
anti-Israel position was actually codified in a decision in 2006 to include as
a permanent feature of its sessions a review of alleged human rights abuses by
Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even Human Rights Watch, no
friend of Israel, urged the Council to look as well at international human
rights and humanitarian law violations committed by Palestinian armed groups.
This proposal was not followed through. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Now the Council’s
commission of inquiry has undertaken an investigation on “possible
international crimes and violations of international human rights law in Israel
and the Palestinian territories since October 7, 2023.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Commission’s findings will be delivered to
the Human Rights Council in June 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Given the long-standing
anti-Israel bias of the chairperson, Navi Pillay, as well as several commission
members, what sort of picture it will eventually present is a matter for
speculation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it is perhaps a
hopeful sign that on October 10 the commission included the following in a
media release: “The taking of hostages is a violation of international law and
constitutes an international crime.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The International
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has a unique role in the system of
international humanitarian law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It works
on battlefields, reports on the problems encountered, and makes practical
proposals for improving international humanitarian law. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its proposals have led to the revision and
extension of international humanitarian law, notably in 1906, 1929, 1949 and
1977.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This special role of the ICRC is
now formally recognized by the states party to the Geneva Conventions – that
is, practically the whole world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">According to the ICRC,
the prohibition on hostage-taking is now “firmly entrenched in customary
international law and is considered a war crime.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Among the elements of
the offence in international armed conflict are:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">1. The perpetrator
seized, detained or otherwise held hostage one or more persons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">2. The perpetrator
threatened to kill, injure or continue to detain such person or persons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">3. The perpetrator
intended to compel a State…to act or refrain from acting as an explicit or
implicit condition for the safety or the release of such person or persons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On October 11 the
Lieber Institute published a lengthy, detailed and explicit survey of the
provisions in international law regarding the taking of hostages. The Lieber
Institute is situated at West Point and is part of the US Military
Academy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its purpose is to contribute to
the global dialogue on the complex issues surround the law of war, and to maintain
the primacy of law in today’s armed conflicts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It seeks to bridge the divide between legal scholarship and battlefield
experience.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Lieber document explains that the provisions of the law of
armed conflict depend on how a conflict is classified. The ongoing conflict
between Israel and Hamas is best characterized
as non-international in character. Therefore the applicable treaty
law is Common Article 3 of the four 1949 Geneva Conventions, and this
unequivocally forbids hostage-taking. The International Court of Justice has
determined that “The taking of hostages is prohibited.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Lieber document goes
on to explain that as a war crime, the offence of hostage-taking is subject to
universal jurisdiction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That means that any
State, even those with no connection to the hostage-taking, is free to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>prosecute offenders. Many States have
accordingly criminalised the offence in their penal codes. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On the matter of
hostage-taking alone – the unspeakably brutal onslaught on innocent civilians
is an issue in its own right – the Lieber paper adjudges that Hamas has “without
the slightest doubt” violated the law of armed conflict. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It concludes: “Hostage-taking was a central
feature of Hamas’s opening salvo in its conflict in Israel…those involved are
subject to worldwide prosecution as war criminals under international criminal
law.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The basis for this
conclusion is the International Convention against the Taking of Hostages,
a UN treaty under which states agree to prohibit and punish hostage taking.
The creation of an anti-hostage-taking treaty was a project initiated by
the Federal Republic of Germany in 1976. The convention was adopted by
the UN General Assembly in December 1979 and came into force in 1983. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As of October 2016, 176 states are party to the
convention.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Too little public
consideration has been given to the likelihood of the Hamas organisation
eventually being found guilty by the UN and other international bodies of the
war crime of hostage-taking, and consequently that its leaders would then be
liable to be arrested, charged and imprisoned in virtually any part of the
world. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBTxeUxlLyOFfZ2lN7qxkKFV9uRvxa7MP9OEUTOHXYGTi3L9OOJ6E2B6mWNpsEUhAo1nOW8rpYG0lPnem23WGt8QLu76A6PUqiGgmza_GtchXcaoI2Z0fBLQjZkeeDFYQG6w5iZ1vBr__8uqYtAd-zeaogiofZgAh1lSmP_5noRI09nLrQ9OLQ6A6AN7Ow/s735/Yahya%20Sinwar.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="735" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBTxeUxlLyOFfZ2lN7qxkKFV9uRvxa7MP9OEUTOHXYGTi3L9OOJ6E2B6mWNpsEUhAo1nOW8rpYG0lPnem23WGt8QLu76A6PUqiGgmza_GtchXcaoI2Z0fBLQjZkeeDFYQG6w5iZ1vBr__8uqYtAd-zeaogiofZgAh1lSmP_5noRI09nLrQ9OLQ6A6AN7Ow/w404-h227/Yahya%20Sinwar.jpg" width="404" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Ismail Haniyeh may
believe himself safe in Qatar, but in Qatar he would have to stay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October
7 onslaught, is not captured by the IDF within the Gaza Strip, he would be on
the run for the rest of his life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mohammed Deif, architect of the Hamas tunnel complex, Marwan Issa,
Khaled Meshaal, Mahmoud Zahar – they and a host more leaders of Hamas would
have nowhere to hide but in the few states not prepared to fulfil their
obligations under the International Convention against the Taking of Hostages,
and prosecute them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even so, they would
all, no doubt, have in mind the fate of the perpetrators of the Munich Olympics
massacres, given the remarks by Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar in a domestic
broadcast on December 3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Israel will
hunt down the Hamas leaders, he said, even if it takes years<o:p></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNdSR_8XseeTgJcxhy2_RVRvyfvt_OIMe7ZiQhRd9JCr278GXgFdkaSBsWky7VPruqvlTXfmCPsn9kyUouBvqXabUkVHiCRLJxBp3_bvqA5QjQLWYIjS22HFeYuuXlGSaiMLHBIpBPKjlc1ckhC-FbQhaJ20fcJF7PAqZGjqYk4-fL3DfySnIeqx4tZaW4/s433/Ronen%20Bar.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="433" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNdSR_8XseeTgJcxhy2_RVRvyfvt_OIMe7ZiQhRd9JCr278GXgFdkaSBsWky7VPruqvlTXfmCPsn9kyUouBvqXabUkVHiCRLJxBp3_bvqA5QjQLWYIjS22HFeYuuXlGSaiMLHBIpBPKjlc1ckhC-FbQhaJ20fcJF7PAqZGjqYk4-fL3DfySnIeqx4tZaW4/w269-h259/Ronen%20Bar.jpg" width="269" /></a></div></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">All provided that Israel
achieves its primary war aim, and destroys Hamas.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online, 5 December 2023:</b> https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-776542</span></i><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 8 December 2023:</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.eurasiareview.com/08122023-taking-hostages-is-a-war-crime-oped/</i></span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 11 December 2023:</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://mpc-journal.org/taking-hostages-is-a-war-crime/</i></span></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-20334046801813682622023-11-30T05:14:00.009+00:002023-12-06T08:45:23.464+00:00The Houthis declare war on Israel<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 30 November 2023</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4bKbgfLC8pjivFahjJ43UVmE_BhWhefQWqs-y2GvkG8wCfkEiL3CFLfPvs_QKOStAP4CUGiOcIJfDh3ATgaiO2PIMY5o4R_K-_t7mvdhUnTh3IZ_HURuUx8ii0uRP27dS9uXtrsH_kR98lqqs2nWnptOeARFG9C568UGnoX0Tu7_VbmqZD_3U1tAnYhgd/s604/Rashid%20al-Alami.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="363" data-original-width="604" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4bKbgfLC8pjivFahjJ43UVmE_BhWhefQWqs-y2GvkG8wCfkEiL3CFLfPvs_QKOStAP4CUGiOcIJfDh3ATgaiO2PIMY5o4R_K-_t7mvdhUnTh3IZ_HURuUx8ii0uRP27dS9uXtrsH_kR98lqqs2nWnptOeARFG9C568UGnoX0Tu7_VbmqZD_3U1tAnYhgd/w550-h330/Rashid%20al-Alami.jpg" width="550" /></a></b></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> In the early days of November a considerable amount of journalistic ink was spilled countering a report that appeared on several social media sites. On October 31 a post on X, formerly Twitter, stated: "Breaking: Yemen declared they are now at war with Israel." According to Newsweek, it was viewed 7.1 million times. The news site USA Today reported that a similar post had appeared on Instagram, and went on to state categorically that the story was untrue. One after another, the news media scrambled to deny the report.</span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> In fact the internationally recognized government (IRG) of Yemen, led by Rashid al-Alami, has not attacked Israel by word or deed. But for the past nine years Yemen has been in the throes of a vicious civil war initiated by the Houthis, a Shia-allied group that emerged in the early 2000s in opposition to former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Supported, financed and equipped by Iran, the Houthis have gained control of a considerable portion of Yemen, including the capital Sana’a. <br /><br /> The Houthis, rallying behind a banner which reads in part: “Death to America; death to Israel, a curse on the Jews”, needed little prompting from their Iranian paymasters to support the Hamas massacre of October 7. It was no doubt at Iran’s behest that the Houthis went on to plan a series of assaults on Israel. Not all went according to plan. Three cruise missiles fired from Yemen on October 19 were intercepted by the US navy. A drone attack launched on October 28 apparently went off-course and resulted in explosions inside Egypt.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje9rdk-7dK_ZpIU50DWYA9DqgdmZvwrLkDGLh42WNMjMi5mgj-9NCr79045FmAIvb3YpVtyxDiIf3-OWhspE1oIy0C5m85EgIpN7uVRxy5xoRnZP_ONntgDx3wwI04O7oWwNfYHVeivpr2h8qOjDly1pSG3jxYTgM9PzC66_mxD5v10wR8b7c_dGJMr_pT/s598/Yahya%20Saree.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="598" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje9rdk-7dK_ZpIU50DWYA9DqgdmZvwrLkDGLh42WNMjMi5mgj-9NCr79045FmAIvb3YpVtyxDiIf3-OWhspE1oIy0C5m85EgIpN7uVRxy5xoRnZP_ONntgDx3wwI04O7oWwNfYHVeivpr2h8qOjDly1pSG3jxYTgM9PzC66_mxD5v10wR8b7c_dGJMr_pT/w380-h214/Yahya%20Saree.jpg" width="380" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"> On October 31 Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Saree, announced on TV that a "large number" of drones and ballistic missiles had been launched toward Israel. In reality they had little chance of hitting anything. More than 2,000 km (1,240 miles) away, Israel is at the very limit of even the longest-range Houthi missile. Moreover, to reach Israel, Houthi missiles must first evade US Navy ships patrolling the region, and then Israeli Navy missile corvettes stationed in the Red Sea. <br /><br /> Israel has said it destroyed an unidentified “aerial target” over the Red Sea on the morning of October 31 using the “Arrow” aerial defense system for the first time since the outbreak of war with Hamas. “There was no threat or risk to civilians,” said the official report, but the incident triggered air raid sirens in the tourist resort of Eilat. <br /><br /> In announcing the strike, Saree declared that Houthi military activity against Israel would be maintained "to help the Palestinians to victory." His statement was a virtual declaration of war, but the fact that the attacks would emanate from Yemeni territory certainly does not mean that the state of Yemen would be in any way involved.. The legitimate government of Yemen, supported by Saudi Arabia, is fighting the Houthis – and through them Iran – for control of the country. Nine years of conflict have seen the Houthis well entrenched in the area they have overrun, but still far from their goal of total control. In fact, according to Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert with the Arabian Gulf States Institute in Washington, in recent months anger has grown against Houthi rule within the area they control as the civil war grinds on without resolution. <br /><br /> “The Houthis view the war between Israel and Hamas as an opportunity to mute some of this domestic criticism,” Johnsen wrote in an analysis earlier this month. “If they are attacking Israel, their local rivals will be less inclined to attack them.” <br /><br /> This may be the motive behind the seizure on November 19 of a cargo ship connected at some remove to an Israeli businessman. Houthi rebels boarded the ship in a crucial Red Sea shipping route, and took its 25 crew members hostage. <br /><br /> “All ships belonging to the Israeli enemy or that deal with it will become legitimate targets,” they announced. <br /><br /> It suits Houthi propaganda to use the terms Houthi and Yemeni without distinction. For example, when a senior Houthi official told an international news agency about its drone attack on southern Israel, Abdelaziz bin Habtour, prime minister of the Houthi government, added: “These drones belong to the state of Yemen.”<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSvZ8O2qUKMtyyXTtDyE3BrS3WEykFhXYvaZ7Pbk804Verv89YfWZWcISDetGcmgFwD1JWashGGL5YiRPJLLaqTvFy1RZqwtp0y18PgM-tloIZmnvKw958zBr72jkMomzE-1_NByVcZzB6ZF4GTyeCSjOt6-NgcjhAOySHCipbcOfICd_s3tUQapwRv_WR/s600/Mohammed%20Abdul-Salam.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSvZ8O2qUKMtyyXTtDyE3BrS3WEykFhXYvaZ7Pbk804Verv89YfWZWcISDetGcmgFwD1JWashGGL5YiRPJLLaqTvFy1RZqwtp0y18PgM-tloIZmnvKw958zBr72jkMomzE-1_NByVcZzB6ZF4GTyeCSjOt6-NgcjhAOySHCipbcOfICd_s3tUQapwRv_WR/w399-h200/Mohammed%20Abdul-Salam.jpg" width="399" /></a></div> Later Mohammed Abdul-Salam, the Houthis’ chief negotiator, in a deliberately misleading statement that identified the Houthi militia with Yemen’s armed forces, declared: “The detention of the Israeli ship is a practical step that proves the seriousness of the Yemeni armed forces in waging the sea battle, regardless of its costs and costs. This is the beginning.” <br /><br /> The ship, the Galaxy Leader, flies the flag of the Bahamas, and is operated by the Japanese NYK Line. Its crew is drawn from five different countries, none of which is Israel. The ultimate owners are Ray Car Carriers, founded by Abraham “Rami” Ungar, an Israeli billionaire. A ship linked to him experienced an explosion in 2021 in the Gulf of Oman which Israeli media blamed on Iran. Again on this occasion prime minister Netanyahu's office condemned the seizure as an “Iranian act of terror." Since 2021, Iran has harassed, attacked or seized nearly 20 internationally flagged merchant vessels. <br /><br /> The Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza are all part of an unofficial alliance that the Iranian regime likes to call “the Axis of Resistance.” It includes other groups in Iraq and Syria, which have also been busy targeting US forces in those countries. Over the past three weeks at least 40 separate drone and rocket attacks have been launched at US forces by Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, where a total of 3,400 American troops are based. Fortunately many of the rockets and one-way attack drones were intercepted by US air defenses, and only minor injuries have resulted so far. By manipulating events and avoiding any direct involvement, the Iranian regime has succeeded in souring the political atmosphere in the Middle East to the point, they hope, that any normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel - very much on the cards only a few short weeks ago - has become out of the question. <br /><br /> As for the Houthi organization, it has responded as ever to the self-interest of its Iranian masters and has willingly assumed the role of combatant against Israel on their behalf.</span><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "The Houthis, not Yemen, declared war on Israel", 30 November 2023:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-775740</span></i><p></p>
<p></p><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 1 December 2023:</b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://www.eurasiareview.com/01122023-the-houthis-declare-war-on-israel-oped/</span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 6 December 2023:</b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://mpc-journal.org/the-houthis-declare-war-on-israel/</span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-47155759607107789582023-11-23T06:06:00.002+00:002023-12-06T09:22:00.853+00:00Qatar: We talk to everyone<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 23 November 2023</i></b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPj4yYG_if3JvTrp0AdTBqAyep9AUcQxQl2rdfreBSnpZtGMhLMVXHqnkScc8hz9WtJ9jpqCMBicwfiKjA6sEn2CevW3sS447rhncSr_UyoO58cpE8oVrciq3WNobe8Gga2P_52ajt6xm3KpKEZ3oVRJP7vlyO6vFhWN39E4ydoDid1j_b8usdE6ugG3Dw/s660/Qatar%20Emir-Biden.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="309" data-original-width="660" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPj4yYG_if3JvTrp0AdTBqAyep9AUcQxQl2rdfreBSnpZtGMhLMVXHqnkScc8hz9WtJ9jpqCMBicwfiKjA6sEn2CevW3sS447rhncSr_UyoO58cpE8oVrciq3WNobe8Gga2P_52ajt6xm3KpKEZ3oVRJP7vlyO6vFhWN39E4ydoDid1j_b8usdE6ugG3Dw/w572-h268/Qatar%20Emir-Biden.jpg" width="572" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b> </b>“We
don’t do enemies,” a one-time foreign minister of Qatar once said. “We talk to
everyone.” </span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This is the policy
pursued with determination over the past thirty years by the tiny Gulf state of
Qatar i<span lang="EN-GB">n its long-term effort
to become a major player on the world stage – and it has succeeded. </span></span><span style="text-indent: 36pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Qatar was absolutely central in negotiating the complex
deal that has led to the release of a batch of the 240 hostages captured by
Hamas. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #c00000;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiduRyMj5meJqkuDmEE6ZadXVZyszLjxRvKk4Vsl8kSFiFOu21dQwJjcQxuNBhqxey5IqpA1QP9xMAktopu88tPkQo2HrrUeQxRG2SNLSiWWolbdUezMduaOm0EnSo7KNk1Yl_CsVd6FA2rzHz8xOk5kZuEN-ktTrnaQa3tlAHQoWilMV47AX4bBoWtENDf/s792/Ismail%20Haniyeh%20&%20Qatar%20Emir.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="446" data-original-width="792" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiduRyMj5meJqkuDmEE6ZadXVZyszLjxRvKk4Vsl8kSFiFOu21dQwJjcQxuNBhqxey5IqpA1QP9xMAktopu88tPkQo2HrrUeQxRG2SNLSiWWolbdUezMduaOm0EnSo7KNk1Yl_CsVd6FA2rzHz8xOk5kZuEN-ktTrnaQa3tlAHQoWilMV47AX4bBoWtENDf/w551-h310/Ismail%20Haniyeh%20&%20Qatar%20Emir.jpg" width="551" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span lang="EN-GB">It already had two successes to its
credit. On October 20 Qatari officials </span>negotiated
the release of Judith and Natalie Raanan, mother and daughter, and then helped
broker a deal for the release on October 23 of two elderly Israeli women held
by Hamas — Yocheved Lifshitz and Nurit Cooper.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Two
days later Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani,
said that negotiations on the release of all the hostages captured by Hamas
were progressing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Yet there has been strong opposition in Washington to the Biden
administration’s close working collaboration with Qatar – especially in light
of Qatar’s statement, issued after the horrific Hamas assault on Israel of
October 7. It declared that Israel is
“solely responsible for the ongoing escalation due to its continuous violations
of the rights of the Palestinian people…”
Critics of the US-Qatar relationship also point to the fact that Hamas
has been largely financed by Qatar for years,
Since 2021, Qatar has reportedly funneled an estimated $360 million a
year to Hamas. Between 2012 and 2021, Qatar is estimated to have given Hamas
$1.8 billion in total. What Hamas spent
the money on must be left to the imagination, since no accounts have ever been
published. Certainly very little went to
improving the lot of the citizens of the Strip. </span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Winston
Churchill once described Russia as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an
enigma.” Qatar is close to meriting the same epithet . Dubbed<span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span>“the wild card of
the Middle East”, Qatar makes for an intriguing case study. Not much is generally known about this
stand-alone and gas-rich Gulf state except perhaps that it is the wealthiest
country in the world on a per capita basis, that it has established what is now
a global media empire called Al-Jazeera, that its national airline is a
long-time sponsor of Britain’s Sky News TV channel, and that it won the hosting
rights for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in somewhat dubious circumstances.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Qatar has long pursued a
foreign policy that appears self-contradictory, if not bizarre. While offering itself as a key US ally in the
Middle East, it has also consistently backed hardline Islamists — from Hamas in
the Gaza Strip, to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, to Sunni jihadist opposition
fighters in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It was back in 1995 that
Qatar’s emir at the time, Sheik Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani, set the nation on
its friends-with-everyone journey. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">In
2002, when the US military began pulling forces out of Saudi Arabia, the emir offered
his country as a home for the US Central Command’s forward headquarters. Ever since, Qatar has hosted a large US
military presence, one of the biggest in the region, at Al Udeid Air Base.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBYO0PC6PdCCeFJZ3wt0EPI9rJsZlrChmEDaHtu_O31bj0quoaANq-zSmqNiJ-ta8LJv-dwnem3TPzFeSXEhQUukLtphbJLv4NV7RtCSZiUyiVpD4RKnYjBKoHhyphenhyphenByncJOPRPqQftkdeMiY-lZQGpPZIEr9UYgrJZvGPRCR2zEz_uxWnDGQeYVKexRKrGc/s407/Sheik%20Hamad%20Bin%20Khalifa%20al-Thani,.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="246" data-original-width="407" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBYO0PC6PdCCeFJZ3wt0EPI9rJsZlrChmEDaHtu_O31bj0quoaANq-zSmqNiJ-ta8LJv-dwnem3TPzFeSXEhQUukLtphbJLv4NV7RtCSZiUyiVpD4RKnYjBKoHhyphenhyphenByncJOPRPqQftkdeMiY-lZQGpPZIEr9UYgrJZvGPRCR2zEz_uxWnDGQeYVKexRKrGc/w379-h229/Sheik%20Hamad%20Bin%20Khalifa%20al-Thani,.jpg" width="379" /></a><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet as the Arab Spring
dawned in 2011, with popular revolutions toppling dictators and autocrats in
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, the emir had no hesitation in allowing hardline
members of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, as well as other jihadists, to establish
a presence in his capital, Doha. He gave
them a fair degree of freedom of action, too, much to the irritation of Qatar’s
neighbors who actually severed relations with the country for a period. <o:p></o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In the years leading up
to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Qatar played a pivotal role in hosting
meetings between US officials and members of the Taliban. While the talks ultimately failed, they
demonstrated the reliance the US places on Qatar as a key intermediary. Qatar certainly played an important role in
the events leading to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Collaborating closely with the US, Qatar
acted as mediator between the Taliban and what was left of the previous Afghan
administration in assisting the evacuation of refugees. Qatar's role in coordinating the safe exit of
tens of thousands of people — including US citizens and contractors — was
invaluable to the American government. Nearly 40% of all evacuees were taken
out via Qatar. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As a direct result, <span lang="EN-GB">on March 10, 2022, President
Joe Biden formally confirmed his grant to Qatar of the status of </span>“major
non-NATO ally”. MNNA, a US legal designation<span lang="EN-GB"> conferred on nearly 20 countries including
Australia, Israel, Japan and Brazil, is
</span>a powerful symbol of friendship and close collaboration. It provides foreign partners of the US with a
range of benefits and privileges, especially in the areas of defense, trade and
security cooperation. By conferring the designation on Qatar, the Biden administration
was signaling it wanted an even closer relationship with the Gulf state than it
already enjoyed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Biden’s gesture toward
this paradoxical nation state certainly paid off. Qatar's working relationships with
traditional US adversaries such as Iran and Russia — or nonstate groups like
Hamas and the Taliban — have made it an invaluable partner for the US and other
Western countries. All turn a Nelsonian
blind eye to its questionable friends and alliances deep in the jihadist and
terrorist worlds, since it is precisely these relationships that make Qatar
such a valuable contact.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On October 13 US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to reporters at a press conference in
Doha. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsPJ6m0I3IlCat79Hwvet5Hq7tJM-S0scJRy2fnF807kwc7zYmPviuxApWhV43gfVeZqIj4pmY8q3DqySTDm1aDwGWBATST6kwHK32B0Q7T9S1OanWZLrg0RghE4AWOTS-LhcXwMb4CAuESkp0UXeioXIBMRW6TC5cKx-kNAMHjiwZM7YNpRz1ylZs3RpQ/s789/Anthony%20Blinken%20(2).jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="789" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsPJ6m0I3IlCat79Hwvet5Hq7tJM-S0scJRy2fnF807kwc7zYmPviuxApWhV43gfVeZqIj4pmY8q3DqySTDm1aDwGWBATST6kwHK32B0Q7T9S1OanWZLrg0RghE4AWOTS-LhcXwMb4CAuESkp0UXeioXIBMRW6TC5cKx-kNAMHjiwZM7YNpRz1ylZs3RpQ/w430-h251/Anthony%20Blinken%20(2).jpg" width="430" /></a></span></div><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“Qatar,” he said, “has
been a very close partner to the United States on a broad range of issues that
are crucial to both of our countries and to this region — from working together
on evacuating Americans, Afghans and others from Afghanistan, to cooperating
very closely in responding to humanitarian emergencies, like the devastating
earthquakes in Turkey and in Syria."
He diplomatically made no mention of Qatar’s sensitive role, being
undertaken as he spoke, in attempting to negotiate a deal involving both Israel
and Hamas to release the hostages.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Qatar’s
bid to punch well above its weight has succeeded. The tiny state – less than half the size of
Israel – has followed its own star by maintaining good relations with a vast
spectrum of global players while still being a strategic partner to the US. Doing so, it has placed itself at the very
heart of world affairs.</span><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post, and in the Jerusalem Post online titled: "Qatar punches above its weight by talking to everyone", 23 November 2023:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-774645</span></i><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 6 November 2023:</b><br />https://www.eurasiareview.com/25112023-qatar-we-talk-to-everyone-oped/</span></i><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 6 December 2023:</b><br />https://mpc-journal.org/qatar-we-talk-to-everyone/</span></i><br /></p>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-20364740694774534702023-11-19T09:48:00.003+00:002023-12-06T09:32:51.930+00:00Israel’s war: lessons from the past<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Report, issue dated 27 November 2023</i></b></span> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHMmI9vyyUcAcCgKpOu2KTD4tyZriIy8hxkC-aZj7rivclDYyXQPXXMnXg9I8G9remMfUo1BjSkD3dtdC8D8auhSnfId8L8u_Oi7WKmZxaHK_7ji3Vn7ClTiIMJ-eV1zcCkOkpZokE9F4R9szFkQzi6WZCW8NAJlUI3lTavONdBuQHk2iqvGxObX3-a2ru/s735/Yahya%20Sinwar.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="735" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHMmI9vyyUcAcCgKpOu2KTD4tyZriIy8hxkC-aZj7rivclDYyXQPXXMnXg9I8G9remMfUo1BjSkD3dtdC8D8auhSnfId8L8u_Oi7WKmZxaHK_7ji3Vn7ClTiIMJ-eV1zcCkOkpZokE9F4R9szFkQzi6WZCW8NAJlUI3lTavONdBuQHk2iqvGxObX3-a2ru/w528-h297/Yahya%20Sinwar.jpg" width="528" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Speaking in Tel Aviv towards the end of his one-day visit to the Middle East on October 18, US President Joe Biden compared Israel’s situation after Hamas’s invasion and pogrom to the US’s crisis after the attacks of 9/11. His country had “sought and got justice,” he said, but also “made mistakes.” <br /><br /> A catalogue of those mistakes was laid out in uncomfortable detail by Garrett M Graf in The Atlantic journal a few years ago. Taken together, they add up to a damning indictment of US foreign policy in the years following the al-Qaeda attack on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. Among the errors, failures and misjudgments listed by Graf, the US-led invasion of Iraq on unverified intelligence, undertaken while the invasion of Afghanistan was still in progress, is particularly noteworthy. Many commentators believe that America’s cardinal error was to begin those operations without either a clear objective for each nation post war, or an exit plan for the invading forces. <br /><br /> In short Biden, while approving Israel’s intention of destroying Hamas root and branch, was pointing to the need for a viable vision of what was to follow its success – for both Gaza and the IDF. <br /><br /> Historical parallels always require special factors to be taken into account, but they do allow lessons to be learnt. Take the document issued from Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force (SHAEF) just before the end of World War II, when victory was assured but before it was achieved. It laid out one of the major war aims of the United Nations – the de-Nazification of Germany. The objective? To destroy the Nazi Party, its political organizations and government agencies; to purge and re-organize the police; and to dismiss from government offices and other position of influence all active Nazis, their sympathizers and leading military figures. Very shortly after the end of the war, the program was set in train. <br /><br /> Why was it done? Because Nazism, with its wild-eyed philosophy of Aryan racial superiority, its virulent antisemitism, its brutal disregard for human rights, was seen as a virus that had infected the German state and its population, and had to be eliminated. <br /><br /> The programme was fraught with enormous difficulties. It was only made possible because the Allies had won total victory. <br /><br /> The same applies to Gaza. Hamas is an extremist political and military organization that shares much of the Nazi philosophy. It is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose leaders in the 1930s and 1940s were actively involved in carrying through the Nazis’ ”Final Solution to the Jewish problem”. They supported and were actively involved in implementing the Holocaust. <br /><br /> The Hamas charter expands on its theme of the God-approved duty of every Muslim to kill Jews for, as article 28 asserts: “The Zionist invasion of the world…[aims] at …annihilating Islam. Israel, Judaism and Jews challenge Islam and the Muslim people.”Like the perverted Nazi philosophy, this perversion of Islam needs to be countered. The essential pre-requisite for mounting a de-Hamasification program in the Gaza strip is a decisive victory by Israel. Also vitally necessary is a well-conceived, comprehensive and fully worked-out plan, ready to be put into action as soon as the moment is ripe. The object would be to dislodge the leaders and adherents of Hamas, with their malevolent anti-Jew, anti-Judaism and anti-Israel ideology, from their positions of power within Gaza. Only with Hamas out of the picture could any form of reactivated peace process become possible. <br /><br /> Israeli leaders have already said that Israel has no interest in the post-war administration of Gaza. Palestinian or wider Arab input will be necessary to recruit the army of non-Hamas administrators and executives required for its reconstruction and governance. Nevertheless Israel could be party to devising a viable political strategy. <br /><br /> Out-of-the-box thinking is called for. A possible answer could lie in a renewed peace process, aimed this time at establishing a new regional configuration. One possibility out of many is the idea of expanding the Abraham Accord normalization structure to encompass a Palestinian entity. <br /><br /> Another is to consider establishing a new legal entity – a confederation embodying Jordan, Israel and a demilitarized Palestinian state including the Gaza Strip. A confederation is a system like the European Union, in which nation states, while retaining full sovereignty, agree to collaborate in certain spheres such as security, defence, economic development or infrastructure.</span><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_zD6Y55vuflLtKzpp4E9RqfpNTGtwtKAWjk_g5yriKYwqe92hm1CT4bGW4D0pe8ahEsKKlxHiGyjNpGhAJ1Fv7F_PlheatPUq5qk8HM-6W8-WxtiuaUM5PUnkj05yM5FGivDTtlE-gUb3_XYAMc5lexrkDm21TKcJ38IgMGHMyeFU_rBe8n8lO08S0IY/s892/Israel-Pal-Jordan-4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="892" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_zD6Y55vuflLtKzpp4E9RqfpNTGtwtKAWjk_g5yriKYwqe92hm1CT4bGW4D0pe8ahEsKKlxHiGyjNpGhAJ1Fv7F_PlheatPUq5qk8HM-6W8-WxtiuaUM5PUnkj05yM5FGivDTtlE-gUb3_XYAMc5lexrkDm21TKcJ38IgMGHMyeFU_rBe8n8lO08S0IY/w545-h242/Israel-Pal-Jordan-4.jpg" width="545" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Coming into legal existence simultaneously with the new Palestine, a confederation structure could bring Jordan, Israel and Palestine into a mini-EU dedicated to providing hi-tech security and economic growth for all its citizens. It might also conceive a pragmatic status for Jerusalem satisfactory to all parties. The Israel Defense Forces would act in collaboration with the forces of the other parties to guarantee the security of Israel and that of the confederation as a whole. <br /><br /> Rid of the Hamas-inspired rejectionist agenda, a three-state confederation covering the whole of what was originally Mandate Palestine </span>might open a hitherto
unexplored path leading away from unending Israel-Palestinian discord.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLSCj2UPilOddquqwiyWf_Py6l-GGsC3nK8Ge_Xbv8YbP6J036GFGEdBSHwigASLvDhsbb3Pjdma5CUsyYm0SgA5r3pOAkgDjUz08AZm4vLV_rfFnBReVU7jGK0-MBDSmEZuAUDG-kg-lnh0hhMpKsc0gPq78xr4q4cQc3Pr5rgGPzNEWOplQVHqv1YWsI/s580/Israel-Pal-Jordan-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="386" data-original-width="580" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLSCj2UPilOddquqwiyWf_Py6l-GGsC3nK8Ge_Xbv8YbP6J036GFGEdBSHwigASLvDhsbb3Pjdma5CUsyYm0SgA5r3pOAkgDjUz08AZm4vLV_rfFnBReVU7jGK0-MBDSmEZuAUDG-kg-lnh0hhMpKsc0gPq78xr4q4cQc3Pr5rgGPzNEWOplQVHqv1YWsI/s320/Israel-Pal-Jordan-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p></o:p><p></p><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published by the Jerusalem Post online as: "Can Israel's war on Hamas be helped by lessons from the past?", 25 November, 2023:</i></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-773675</i><b><i> </i></b></span></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-83940178326583984442023-11-16T05:53:00.006+00:002023-11-20T19:23:34.453+00:00Who's behind Britain's anti-Israel rallies?<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 16 November 2023</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8_sXEcPcNfiWpSfK1o3Ewwt_eXoe_-CEwy5rNhrarOVM1_bbtJWVym9vkapHVatOru-MudaZrnBoa_52gAqYRAAro-xyPhifcE-lRzDFunqs8vVFh_GP0uIiz5GS3bcnr8UvR7lP-e9mSiX549Ig-3c0ko7IvBFe372Pvxroe_swxz1mYmaW9WNRhaTXY/s1011/Armistice%20Day%20march.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="1011" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8_sXEcPcNfiWpSfK1o3Ewwt_eXoe_-CEwy5rNhrarOVM1_bbtJWVym9vkapHVatOru-MudaZrnBoa_52gAqYRAAro-xyPhifcE-lRzDFunqs8vVFh_GP0uIiz5GS3bcnr8UvR7lP-e9mSiX549Ig-3c0ko7IvBFe372Pvxroe_swxz1mYmaW9WNRhaTXY/w580-h326/Armistice%20Day%20march.jpg" width="580" /></a></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span> </span>November 11 is known in Britain as Armistice Day. A two-minute silence is observed nationally to commemorate the end of the First World War in 1918 – at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month. This year it fell on a Saturday. Ever since Saturday, October 28, when a reported 100,000 pro-Palestinian supporters marched through central London, waving anti-Israel banners, chanting anti-Israel and antisemitic slogans, and calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, mass rallies – although on a smaller scale – have taken place every Saturday in London and in cities across Britain. <br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-align: left; text-indent: 1cm;"> Leading up to Armistice
Day this year, influential voices throughout the UK, including the prime
minister himself, Rishi Sunak, urged the head of the Metropolitan Police to
prevent the pro-Palestinian march from taking place, but the police chief
confined himself to requesting the organizers to postpone it. They refused, and
he maintained that the police do not have sufficient powers under the law to
ban an event that does not pose the threat of extreme violence.</span></div>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In a final gesture of
exasperation the then-home secretary, Suella Braverman, penned an article in
The Times, deploring the failure of the Metropolitan Police chief to act, and
asserting that the force has demonstrated bias in their handling of political
rallies. She claimed they favored left-wing groups, citing the pro-Palestinian
rallies which she called “hate marches”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“Terrorists have been
valorized,” wrote Braverman. “Israel has been demonized as Nazis, and Jews have
been threatened with further massacres.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A political storm burst
around her. There was an instant demand from the Labour Party and its
supporters, joined by some in her own Conservative party, for the prime
minister to sack her. On November 13 Sunak announced a reshuffle of his
Cabinet, and Braverman lost her job. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGkaq8JfLqyWqTBYPmvbGNUJFtbNfZA3GXK9k7rOinPOMU2g4igi_AyZ8e-Jmsj076j6QhOaGohEd8xFYULlofKkcGhATPfjsbnLN7p1hD-PZaXHO5WY6hFJiBDjqYf2CbPLDCO55B1NVfGsqljnTFr7uQx1JlPgdNO4X8MbpBLDXQzs-D7Y7Txqsx0azS/s412/Rishi%20Sunak.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="264" data-original-width="412" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGkaq8JfLqyWqTBYPmvbGNUJFtbNfZA3GXK9k7rOinPOMU2g4igi_AyZ8e-Jmsj076j6QhOaGohEd8xFYULlofKkcGhATPfjsbnLN7p1hD-PZaXHO5WY6hFJiBDjqYf2CbPLDCO55B1NVfGsqljnTFr7uQx1JlPgdNO4X8MbpBLDXQzs-D7Y7Txqsx0azS/w396-h254/Rishi%20Sunak.jpg" width="396" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On Armistice Day, the
pro-Palestinian rally went ahead with some 300,000 people taking to the London
streets. The marchers took more than four hours to proceed along a route
starting in central London and ending at the US embassy on the south bank of
the River Thames.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The antisemitic rhetoric
had been toned down, if not entirely eliminated, but anti-Israel and
pro-Palestinian slogans abounded, many advocating a ceasefire in the Gaza war.
There are media reports that the police spotted a few pro-Hamas banner holders,
and are trying to identify them. It is illegal to support the terrorist group.
But the march proceeded peacefully, and few arrests were made.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A counter-protest,
however, by far-right groups, did turn violent. Police battled with aggressive
protesters and made more than 90 arrests.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The police and Britain’s
counter-terrorism services are well aware that such protest demonstrations are
a highly complex operation, requiring detailed organization ranging from
assembling vast numbers of supporters and controlling the routes of marches, to
the location of rallies, devising slogans to be chanted, and providing banners
and placards telling the same story.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On November 7, an
exclusive report in The Daily Telegraph revealed that a former Hamas chief,
Muhammed Kathem Sawalha, said to have been active in Hamas as recently as 2019,
is behind one of the six groups organizing the pro-Palestine protests. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsrWAkBuoCrPLlJNN9wbArsCpcZr6_Su1DMpJCv_OwtYt-BQUewL9DzuaEXNwoqaAjM_0WwhTu1ICrENbQIkrfWnW7wjnp8JGX1t4hZuJUBWijOZgGTODDUHSwmxCDRamAYHkdbdhrKVURRwpS7eBiU2Y25ZOg0vAyn69-IP97TwnmdFwsW4ouxQf83Na9/s781/Muhammad%20Salwaha.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="491" data-original-width="781" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsrWAkBuoCrPLlJNN9wbArsCpcZr6_Su1DMpJCv_OwtYt-BQUewL9DzuaEXNwoqaAjM_0WwhTu1ICrENbQIkrfWnW7wjnp8JGX1t4hZuJUBWijOZgGTODDUHSwmxCDRamAYHkdbdhrKVURRwpS7eBiU2Y25ZOg0vAyn69-IP97TwnmdFwsW4ouxQf83Na9/w391-h246/Muhammad%20Salwaha.jpg" width="391" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /> Sawalha,
62, came to Britain in the late 1990s and founded the Muslim Association of
Britain (MAB). He was granted British citizenship in the early 2000s. The Daily
Telegraph further discovered that, in addition to the MAB, at least two more of
the groups that organized the November 11 march have links to Hamas.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On October 27, an
exclusive report in The Times revealed that hostile state activity in the UK
has been directly linked to the Iranian regime, including the spread of
disinformation online and lodging Iranian agents in the crowds attending
marches. Following that report, the police announced that Iranian agents are
hijacking Britain’s pro-Palestinian rallies.<br />
None of this should have come as a surprise. On October 19, Robin Simcox, head
of the independent Counter-Extremism Commission, gave a long and thoughtful
address to the highly prestigious Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Simcox began by
endorsing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s description of the Hamas onslaught of
October 7 as a pogrom. “Hamas reveled in this bloodshed,” he said. “It was
sadism.“<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghuFeeDTG1t_Ty-wsUL53tRkX5BAK9jTnJJcgqpbjQiE-u5DODLnAXEfB36oXY9TZYM9MhHWVnLuowFGjRvJx-IfkKnEjEKe3FuaDcW9s5afp3Dpu7FC34B2CnVmguSHm74QwzK9oCYHLhHl1bRAYzelrsihVYDu4u4gffYoxZbD8Mp82gNcsHOOd5xGZo/s388/Robin%20SImcox.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="281" data-original-width="388" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghuFeeDTG1t_Ty-wsUL53tRkX5BAK9jTnJJcgqpbjQiE-u5DODLnAXEfB36oXY9TZYM9MhHWVnLuowFGjRvJx-IfkKnEjEKe3FuaDcW9s5afp3Dpu7FC34B2CnVmguSHm74QwzK9oCYHLhHl1bRAYzelrsihVYDu4u4gffYoxZbD8Mp82gNcsHOOd5xGZo/w352-h255/Robin%20SImcox.jpg" width="352" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /> He went on to say that,
in the UK, support for Palestinian rights too often translates into rhetoric
supportive of Hamas. “Too many in positions of prominence have praised them or
their leadership; or sought to rationalize or excuse their acts of terror… The
Hamas support network in the UK is entrenched.”<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Simcox continued: “What
is underappreciated is the scale of Iranian-backed activity in this country;
and the extent to which Iran attempts to stoke extremism here.”<br />
In March 2023, the UK government revealed that since 2022, there have been 15
credible threats by the Iranian regime to kill or kidnap British or UK-based
individuals.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Director General of
MI5, Britain’s domestic counter-intelligence and security agency, has said that
“Iran projects a threat to the UK directly, through its aggressive intelligence
services.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Now that the UK
government has proscribed Hamas as a terrorist organization, Simcox strongly
advocates that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) should be
similarly proscribed because of its role in plotting violence. Despite the
urging of some government ministers, Britain’s Foreign Office has opposed a ban
because it claims it would cause permanent damage to diplomatic relations with
Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“The IRGC has operated
like a terrorist organization ever since its inception, over four decades ago,”
said Simcox. “And yet it is legal, at present, for the IRGC to be, for example,
hosted in UK institutions.” He believes that the IRGC is operating Iran’s
destabilizing policies in the UK but also worldwide.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In February 2023, acting
on police advice, the independent Iran International TV closed its operation in
Britain because of threats to its staff from operatives acting for the Iranian
regime.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“I cannot believe it has come to this,” said Mahmood Enayat, the station’s
general manager. “A foreign state has caused such a significant threat to the
British public on British soil that we have to move.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The channel will
continue its output from its Washington DC site. “We refuse to be silenced by
these cowardly threats,” said Enayat. “ We will continue to broadcast. We are
undeterred.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Valiant words, and an
intrepid attitude – but the truth is that, on police advice, a media outlet
operating legally on British soil has succumbed to Iranian threats. That is
scarcely a satisfactory position. Some in the police have called for legal
clarification and enhanced powers to deal with terrorism and incitement to
violence on Britain’s streets. That would seem a step in the right direction.
Unmasking, charging, and expelling foreign agents masterminding illegal
antisemitic activity would be another.</span><br /></span><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post 16 November 2023:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-773427</span></i></p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 17 November 2023:</b><br />https://www.eurasiareview.com/17112023-whos-behind-britains-anti-israel-rallies-oped/ </span></i><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 20 November 2023:</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://mpc-journal.org/whos-behind-britains-anti-israel-rallies/<br /></i></span><p></p><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></i></div></div></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-62161810779095082442023-11-06T23:35:00.007+00:002023-11-14T08:11:09.297+00:00Lebanon - why no second front?<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 7 November 2023</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtyNnRn1NJWvEC1hh5NNfDBih_bAX3LMD6zWA03gtUoBrSZXkpwn7a1wr2FPwspsxKJJJGR87qSQbqlpLk_2JjWUQlewcUi6zSu00E-kVzrcNiRdMTz6YrMKQxwr_qg0X7nWz05vmHIwfSbsbsjpyK7aQx5tXyIYayI_s9yXwoFcnjluitMYklYWDaqmwK/s822/Nasrallah.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="822" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtyNnRn1NJWvEC1hh5NNfDBih_bAX3LMD6zWA03gtUoBrSZXkpwn7a1wr2FPwspsxKJJJGR87qSQbqlpLk_2JjWUQlewcUi6zSu00E-kVzrcNiRdMTz6YrMKQxwr_qg0X7nWz05vmHIwfSbsbsjpyK7aQx5tXyIYayI_s9yXwoFcnjluitMYklYWDaqmwK/w553-h361/Nasrallah.jpg" width="553" /></a></b></span></div><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"> <span style="font-family: georgia;">A much-trumpeted
speech on November 3 by Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was, in
the event, rather less than overwhelming. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For starters there was
no sign of Nasrallah himself. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters and
supporters packed a square in the southern suburbs of Beirut to greet their
leader, but their leader wasn’t prepared to greet them. Instead
they faced a monster TV screen. They viewed, and cheered, a videoed
speech recorded in some secret location – perhaps a bomb-proof
bunker. According to one media commentator Nasrallah himself has not been
seen in public for a decade. This address to supporters was his first
since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, and expectations were high in some
parts of the media that he was about to announce the opening of a second front
against Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">However he made clear in
his opening remarks that Hamas’s October 7 invasion of Israel, the subsequent
massacre of 1400 civilians and the abduction of over 240 hostages – an
operation which, predictably, he praised – was a purely Palestinian
enterprise. And, he implied later in his remarks, Palestinian he wanted
the subsequent conflict to remain. He made it clear that Iran and
Hezbollah had had no part in its planning or execution, and neither found it
expedient in present circumstances to support Hamas by opening full-scale
hostilities against Israel. Although he made no reference to Washington’s
clear warning that such a move would bring dire consequences, there is little
doubt that the message had been received and understood.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">So hostilities would be
confined to the recent artillery and rocket exchanges across the
Lebanese-Israeli border and the Iranian drone strikes against US stations in
Syria and Iraq.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A second front, open
warfare with Israel, was demoted to a final resort, triggered by vague,
unspecified circumstances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The speech no
doubt came as a disappointment to Hamas leaders who have been pushing, covertly
and openly. for active Hezbollah support. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Lebanese people are
in the midst of a familiar emotional dilemma – on the one hand sympathy with
Hezbollah’s support of the Palestinian cause; on the other, intense suspicion
of Hezbollah and its baggage-train of Iranian requirements in the regime’s
self-interest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, public
opinion questioned from the start why thousands of Lebanese youth were sent off
to fight in Syria under Hezbollah and Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps), in support of the ambitions of the Iranian regime to dominate the
region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Lebanese public, which has
little love for Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad, failed to see how its own
interests were being served by fighting to sustain him in power.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hezbollah has entrenched
itself deeply into Lebanese society.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
has a dominating position in the financial, economic and political fields, and itself
operates a range of social support services.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It has truly become a state within a state, sustained by its own armed
militia which is independent of the official Lebanese armed forces (under the
presidency of Michel Aoun, a Hezbollah supporter, they did cooperate).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed Hezbollah has acquired so much
military power and political influence that it is very nearly ruling Lebanon on
its own, especially since the country has lacked a president and an effective
government for more than al year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Moreover it serves Hezbollah’s and Iran’s interest for the stalemate to
continue, and every attempt to beak the political deadlock has been thwarted by
Hezbollah and its allies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Just a few months ago
the respected Washington Institute published a devastatingly frank assessment
by its counterterrorism and intelligence academic expert, Matthew Levitt,
concerning the deep-rooted troubles that are paralyzing Lebanon.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2TwGfyH-_OIqovt6MrMFsAM6aHbcb_De9rIAQi0-5ukqPFM9yXZfVLKMGqRcJnqdlVOIlFRXRN_NiIg-bjOTpr1Kd4FyUH_Vcw29pdDp88AgJWPqSsi2XDecsP8chcj3GabivSL2nkZIZ9y4kt35ACdu98s30iOJnG2_mbGIqiHFlpOznWBwhFPYlg-gh/s526/Matthew%20Levitt.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="526" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2TwGfyH-_OIqovt6MrMFsAM6aHbcb_De9rIAQi0-5ukqPFM9yXZfVLKMGqRcJnqdlVOIlFRXRN_NiIg-bjOTpr1Kd4FyUH_Vcw29pdDp88AgJWPqSsi2XDecsP8chcj3GabivSL2nkZIZ9y4kt35ACdu98s30iOJnG2_mbGIqiHFlpOznWBwhFPYlg-gh/w396-h287/Matthew%20Levitt.jpg" width="396" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“Let’s be clear,” he
writes, “corruption is at the heart of Lebanon’s economic and political crises.
This economic and political rot is deeply entrenched and is protected by
powerful political bosses across the spectrum… yet no Lebanese party presents a
greater security threat to Lebanon domestically, and to its neighbors in the
region, than Hezbollah – in part because Hezbollah is the de facto militant
enforcer of the corrupt political system from which it and other sectarian
political parties benefit.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Levitt explained in a
recent media interview that while Hezbollah can prevent government decisions
that are against its interests, “it’s not held accountable for what the
government does or does not do, and it’s independently able to make decisions
of war and peace, life and death, for the entirely of Lebanon – without
consulting either the people or the government.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, it has power without responsibility,
operating its own mini-administration across the nation with a great degree of
impunity. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hezbollah is therefore
little concerned with the worst economic crisis to grip the country for decades.
The value of the country's currency has dropped by over 90 percent since 2019,
with essential goods and services increasingly difficult to access. In
addition, hours-long power outages are routine in Beirut and other cities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lebanon’s declining economic, political, and
security conditions are rarely referred to by Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, nor does he mention the resultant demonstrations and labor strikes that
are plaguing the country. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact demonstrations
in reaction to deteriorating socio-economic conditions and perceived government
mismanagement have been a regular occurrence in Lebanon since 2019. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Major economic and
political reforms will be required to help reverse the crisis, unlock
international financial assistance, and address protesters' demands. However,
Lebanon is locked in a political stalemate which makes reform, or indeed remedial
action of any significant sort, impossible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Nasrallah, clearly with
Iran’s concurrence, has wisely decided to hold back on any full-scale conflict
with Israel, since he would need support from a people mired in economic, social
and political unrest and struggling with a cost of living crisis.</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">The last thing they need is to be</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">dragged into a war on top of their other
woes.</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">if Nasrallah tried to involve
them, he might find himself facing a popular revolt.</span><br /><br /><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online, 7 November 2023:</b><br />https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-772005</span></i></p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in Eurasia Review, 9 November 2023:</b><br />https://www.eurasiareview.com/09112023-lebanon-why-no-second-front-oped/</span></i><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Published in the MPC Journal, 14 November 2023:</b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial;">https://mpc-journal.org/lebanon-why-no-second-front/<br /></span></i><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><br /></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i></i></b></span><p></p></div></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-31966478052531659562023-10-31T05:18:00.002+00:002023-10-31T05:18:26.404+00:00Israel maintains its gas flow<p> <span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, 31 October 2023</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCEeAoANyA__kJoLondZGYLB-GVUvoSbU1ie5jn4kfBMJuufSuG5PgwgDaUq1kE7qIEcmHB0FNxTXsm9n716XxLppvxJNU8v45MrDcFCJ5W5lJNxvlrVLB4RT4tYVDeUtHVy1hPitWfdwukssuWdrjhNGSsUFyeGgoH7AiawxS_cQ1AM7nYoluR-kzPKbn/s918/Russell%20Hardy.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="918" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCEeAoANyA__kJoLondZGYLB-GVUvoSbU1ie5jn4kfBMJuufSuG5PgwgDaUq1kE7qIEcmHB0FNxTXsm9n716XxLppvxJNU8v45MrDcFCJ5W5lJNxvlrVLB4RT4tYVDeUtHVy1hPitWfdwukssuWdrjhNGSsUFyeGgoH7AiawxS_cQ1AM7nYoluR-kzPKbn/w442-h249/Russell%20Hardy.jpg" width="442" /></a></b></span></div><p><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: georgia;"> From October 17-19 the Energy
Intelligence Forum held a three-day conference in the heart of London. The agenda –“to </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">debate and
shape sustainable solutions to the energy challenges of the 21st century”
–added to the 5-star hotel location, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: georgia;">attracted nearly 100 energy leaders from around the world.</span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The forum was addressed on its first day by Russell Hardy, CEO
(chief executive officer) of Vitol, t<span style="color: #404040;">he world's top
independent energy trader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He told the
forum that </span>despite its war with Hamas, Israel is managing to maintain a
steady supply of gas both domestically and to its international customers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Israel’s Tamar gas field,
with estimated reserves of around 315 bcm (billion cubic meters), usually meets
around 70% of Israel's energy needs for power generation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two days after the Hamas attack on Israel, however,
Chevron – a major partner in the consortium operating Tamar – was instructed by
Israel’s energy ministry to shut down production.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reports indicate that the consortium was
given to understand that this would be a temporary measure, and production
would be resumed when the security situation stabilized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Tamar is located some 25 kilometers (15.5
miles) off the city of Ashdod along Israel's southern Mediterranean coast. The
platform, which can been seen from the northern Gaza Strip on a clear day, is
within range of rocket fire from Gaza.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtUhBUbPfn5K1URj2ThaLMQhASEvWgQ5lOqCPp8JKywoJ21s_gupmJBPEuw5GYzAEjNUO2rvKM6FxcgHLL_n0PdN8uQIBApz3__TLz0_5jh3_SDc2o_YnvqLxjinhy-kdWxPNcMH6g6XKvOcoIVodgIm85b0Mt1Qf_2hctFnDuxa_skGBCkEB5Zq1twtkZ/s704/Tamar%20gas%20field.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="704" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtUhBUbPfn5K1URj2ThaLMQhASEvWgQ5lOqCPp8JKywoJ21s_gupmJBPEuw5GYzAEjNUO2rvKM6FxcgHLL_n0PdN8uQIBApz3__TLz0_5jh3_SDc2o_YnvqLxjinhy-kdWxPNcMH6g6XKvOcoIVodgIm85b0Mt1Qf_2hctFnDuxa_skGBCkEB5Zq1twtkZ/w367-h259/Tamar%20gas%20field.jpg" width="367" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Meanwhile, the energy ministry
announced, “the economy’s energy needs will be supplied by alternative fuels…The
electricity industry is preparing to use alternative fuels to power its
stations.” </span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">Hardy informed the forum
of the situation.</span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: 1cm;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia; text-indent: 1cm;">Israel is managing "to backfill from some
of the other fields,” he said, “so my understanding is gas is still
transferring to their customers and their international customers as well,
largely in an intact way.” During his address, perhaps with something of
a wink and a nudge, he remarked: “I think they probably have a little bit of
spare capacity in the system.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Three major Israel
fields are currently in production – Tamar, Leviathan and Karish,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Between them they<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>have total estimated reserves of a trillion
cubic meters. Leviathan, Israel's largest offshore gas field,
continues to operate normally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Four more
fields have already been discovered, and are awaiting exploitation – Zeus,
Athena, Hermes and Kallan – which taken together amount to an estimated further
108 bcm of natural gas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Egypt imports Israeli
gas from both the Tamar and Leviathan gas fields, located in the Mediterranean
Sea off the coast of Israel, to help meet its domestic demand and for LNG
exports from its two liquefaction plants.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The International Energy
Agency (IEA) took a ess optimistic view than Israel’s energy ministry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its gas analyst, Gergely Molnar, speaking in
a webinar on October 10, said that Tamar was a "very important" field
when it came to Israel and the region's gas supply-demand balance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">"Closing the field
temporarily,” he said, “can have impacts both on gas deliveries to the domestic
market in Israel, but also on the country's export capability…When we are
looking at the upstream sector in Egypt, we have already seen that it is
struggling to keep up pace with rapidly rising domestic consumption as well as liquid
natural gas ( LNG) exports. If we take out Israeli pipe gas imports from that
equation, it will harm the ability of Egypt to export LNG over the coming
months."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Reported data showed Egypt
exporting only one LNG cargo in August and none in September due to high summer
domestic gas demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Egyptian LNG
exports so far this year have reached just less than half the total for the
whole of 2022.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In June 2022, the
European Commission, Israel and Egypt signed a trilateral memorandum of
understanding on the supply of Israeli gas via Egypt's LNG export
infrastructure to the EU.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Because Egypt’s own gas
production had been declining for some time, Egypt negotiated a deal with
Israel which was ratified on August 23.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Israel announced an increase in its natural
gas sales to Egypt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicLV2TU0paCfs6FdWp868OFV39irXLhc2IMeAMVH_bISkGhKQrIjPpvZz8aYUh2EObY7c9Md2FUuwnq9Ny6w1cJp5YomXJ4ZmemC9LvjtloxxFfv4vauUuHCZqVjkgUGnSayNw6fdrM954KKi253qHvYQgAPYemWFPMCKv9xczmMf2RGnDrvj3NZs45Fmf/s537/Israel%20Katz.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="525" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicLV2TU0paCfs6FdWp868OFV39irXLhc2IMeAMVH_bISkGhKQrIjPpvZz8aYUh2EObY7c9Md2FUuwnq9Ny6w1cJp5YomXJ4ZmemC9LvjtloxxFfv4vauUuHCZqVjkgUGnSayNw6fdrM954KKi253qHvYQgAPYemWFPMCKv9xczmMf2RGnDrvj3NZs45Fmf/s320/Israel%20Katz.jpg" width="313" /></a></span></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Explaining the new
Egypt-Israel agreement, Israel’s Energy Minister, Israel Katz, said that gas
exports to Egypt, currently about 5 bcm per annum, will be increased by 3.5 bcm
per annum over 11 years reaching a total annual sale of 43.5 bcm. This
additional supply from Israel will enable Egypt to continue to meet its
contracted exports as well as its domestic needs<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">"This step will
increase the state's revenue and strengthen diplomatic ties between Israel and
Egypt," said Katz.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In a separate statement,
the energy ministry said that prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government
has authorized Katz to order a state of emergency for Israel's energy sector if
deemed necessary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such a move, it said, would
allow the government to allocate natural gas to consumers should supply
shortages emerge.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Israel is expected to
roughly double its gas output over the coming years, but Yogev Gardos, Israel's
budget director, in a letter to the director-general of the Energy Ministry,
said that exporting too much "could endanger Israel's energy
security" and lead to higher electricity prices. Katz responded to
the letter in a robust X or Twitter post: "Decisions on the gas sector
take into account broad policy considerations, such as Israel's standing, and
the one who will make the decisions is me - the minister elected by the people.
Not the professional echelon."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">He could afford to
respond straight from the shoulder, for he already knew that Israel’s fourth
offshore bidding round, launched in December 2022, had been an outstanding
success. Four groups of companies, amounting to nine companies in
all, have bid to explore for additional offshore natural gas fields in Israeli
waters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the forthcoming exploration
in the pipeline, Israel’s future, both as regards satisfying its own gas needs
and as a remunerative gas exporting nation, seems assured.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the Jerusalem Post, and in the Jerusalem Post online titled: "How can Israel maintaion its gas flow during the war?", 31 October 2023:</i></b></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-770897</i></span> </div><div><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><br /></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i></i></b></span><p></p></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-20250320949308811662023-10-29T08:03:00.002+00:002023-10-29T08:09:19.071+00:00Hamas conceals its casualties and disguises its fighters<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9T4yKsEuQFVQI8NrSB7_O6RfrgAZcG4RA-LGpyofEHLrzAf_pyoKy1KpkBgSNgq006YCs347zEtBXt38qX296bvQklKKEp3VdGMRyaJU-VhDKWaymHsVXptQBA5mTt7Y12D4VhS2NukMD4B4NpHUeAkSx7wYtYzGUq2zfnPDYzmgAD6HqEm6ZIbGveLGv/s640/LETTER.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9T4yKsEuQFVQI8NrSB7_O6RfrgAZcG4RA-LGpyofEHLrzAf_pyoKy1KpkBgSNgq006YCs347zEtBXt38qX296bvQklKKEp3VdGMRyaJU-VhDKWaymHsVXptQBA5mTt7Y12D4VhS2NukMD4B4NpHUeAkSx7wYtYzGUq2zfnPDYzmgAD6HqEm6ZIbGveLGv/w523-h392/LETTER.JPG" width="523" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>This letter appears in the Sunday Telegraph, 29 October 2023</i></b></span> </p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br />Sir<br /><br />May I make two points to amplify your Editorial Comment (“The UN should not be condemning Israel”, 26 October). First, in a war enemy combatants are legitimate targets of attack, but the Hamas-provided numbers of those killed and wounded make no distinction between Hamas fighters and civilians, leaving the impression that all the casualties are civilians. <br /><br />Second, Hamas fighters wear no uniform, so once Israel’s ground invasion takes place the rules of war that require attacking forces to distinguish between the enemy and innocent civilians will be stretched to breaking point. The rules surely assume that uniformed soldiers would be fighting a uniformed enemy.<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yours<br />Neville Teller</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Beit Shemesh</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Israel</span></div>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6109609079602445946.post-15598473775784886662023-10-24T21:39:00.005+01:002023-10-25T08:57:59.508+01:00Hamas and the BBC<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Published in the new issue of the Jerusalem Report, dated 6 November 2023</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg_RMcIIQRb_2zFr4dlBlCgCQb4h7PfS41qTNKwJuluA-KovjQBMfe8Ad7yHmuDoK0C2Z-LQqOMfMidk3u1xOpWRnqXvs7Q4X6pzmJ-Zj5xQMkWL66iCOT9CrLSLl7ukw4Yvfr-Hs90EixlZvndNONeA3veSN2LwdHm9SDRKIkmb68bZWpJXrM8eezp74z/s909/Sagi-Lifschitz%20.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="909" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg_RMcIIQRb_2zFr4dlBlCgCQb4h7PfS41qTNKwJuluA-KovjQBMfe8Ad7yHmuDoK0C2Z-LQqOMfMidk3u1xOpWRnqXvs7Q4X6pzmJ-Zj5xQMkWL66iCOT9CrLSLl7ukw4Yvfr-Hs90EixlZvndNONeA3veSN2LwdHm9SDRKIkmb68bZWpJXrM8eezp74z/w565-h272/Sagi-Lifschitz%20.jpg" width="565" /></a></b></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On 12 October two
British Israelis whose families are being held hostage in Gaza attended a media
conference in London, an event carried by the major TV networks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Noam Sagi and Sharon Lifschitz both have
parents who were taken hostage during the Hamas attack on 7 October.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Sagi, a London-based
psychotherapist who grew up in Israel, said that his mother, Ada Sagi, was taken
hostage from Nir Oz kibbutz.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He said
that as he spoke, “I should have been on the way to Heathrow to pick up my mum,
who was coming to celebrate her 75th birthday here today in London." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Speaking direct to
camera, he called on the BBC to call Hamas “for what it is”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">He was referring to the
storm of controversy that began sweeping across the UK from the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>moment the BBC started reporting on the Hamas
atrocity on Saturday 7 October.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The next day<i> </i>Britain’s<i>
Sunday Telegraph</i> published an article by a former director of BBC
Television deploring the fact that the BBC was deliberately avoiding describing
those who had perpetrated the shocking slaughter as terrorists.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“Across its platforms,”
he wrote, “the BBC describes the actions of ‘militants’, as if shooting
children in cold blood is some part of conventional military warfare. It is
nothing of the sort. It is murder, pure and simple. It is terrorism.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Jewish groups took up
the call. “The murder and massacre of innocent civilians,” declared <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the Simon Wiesenthal Center, “is terrorism,
straight and simple”, and the UK’s national broadcaster should describe it as
such. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The BBC’s Editorial
Guidelines for its journalists and news staff have a specific section on Israel
and Palestine: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“care is required in the
use of language that carries value judgments,” they state.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The guidelines forbid the use of the word
“terrorist” in the BBC’s own reports, but permit its use when it can be
attributed to an individual or organization. They advise using terms “such as
‘bomber’, ‘attacker’, ‘gunman’, ‘kidnapper’, ‘insurgent’, and ‘militant’.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Z6BoG6mfbl_8-T2o3ciiGPfd39OLLFZPb_9e97kozes_zJoolrS70Q2Lao1QhRLLIXiG7vocoq5VwwAuqMv4UAXkGfD7ntCE1sHFI8rNwxATiAqGdrM_nY9CtFk80HVRHsjIPoZai8WWDr2sIWZz-opZtufqTZjSe73FLBc65ekAOrOR70OC_BaOm3MU/s1061/Sunak%20in%20Commons.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1061" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Z6BoG6mfbl_8-T2o3ciiGPfd39OLLFZPb_9e97kozes_zJoolrS70Q2Lao1QhRLLIXiG7vocoq5VwwAuqMv4UAXkGfD7ntCE1sHFI8rNwxATiAqGdrM_nY9CtFk80HVRHsjIPoZai8WWDr2sIWZz-opZtufqTZjSe73FLBc65ekAOrOR70OC_BaOm3MU/w498-h317/Sunak%20in%20Commons.jpg" width="498" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>By 11 October other powerful voices had been raised in condemnation of the BBC’s
policy, starting at the top.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Britain’s prime
minister, Rishi Sunak, deplored the use of the word 'militants' - meaning
fighting forces. “Hamas are not militants,” he said, “they are not freedom
fighters. They are terrorists."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Britain's chief rabbi,
Sir Ephraim Mirvis, said in a broadcast interview "I noticed that the BBC has
a reluctance to use the term 'terrorist’. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If one doesn’t use the term 'terrorist', it is
as if one is providing a window of opportunity for justification, and nothing
can justify this." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Others have also spoken
out against the BBC's coverage. Marie van der Zyl, president of the Board of
Deputies of British Jews, has said that she complained to the BBC’s Director
General, Tim Davie, about<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>its coverage,
but the BBC refused to change its Editorial Guidelines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, the broadcaster put up one of its most
senior and respected journalists, John Simpson, to explain its position.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXONeffIBJtcK-8vVet8WKzMSaJY6uTa41xBW4GrdwQWyYF0sVgqd2HS1ruN95Ty8Y98Vc0rXqUglDB-6TshPODxZslkr6Qm1XIITXTFz4tORGwoei15wCWVg4eLHQ4JGfAJ15Wm214wzowXzCL-rlAoAwHRMvM_BZ2CgX3fk4BinQejI_alDZAcBjRgUz/s733/John%20Simpson.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="733" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXONeffIBJtcK-8vVet8WKzMSaJY6uTa41xBW4GrdwQWyYF0sVgqd2HS1ruN95Ty8Y98Vc0rXqUglDB-6TshPODxZslkr6Qm1XIITXTFz4tORGwoei15wCWVg4eLHQ4JGfAJ15Wm214wzowXzCL-rlAoAwHRMvM_BZ2CgX3fk4BinQejI_alDZAcBjRgUz/w395-h227/John%20Simpson.jpg" width="395" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Writing on the BBC’s
webpage on 12 October, he said: “Terrorism is a loaded word which people use
about an outfit they disapprove of morally. It's simply not the BBC's job to
tell people who to support and who to condemn…We regularly point out that the
British and other governments have condemned Hamas as a terrorist organization,
but …the key point is that we don't say it in our voice…We don't take sides…That's
why people in Britain and right round the world, in huge numbers, watch, read
and listen to what we say, every single day.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A few days later eminent
journalist and historian, Simon Heffer, responded.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“I <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>simply cannot agree with the defence he
has made of the Corporation’s decision not to call Hamas “terrorists”…Parliament
designated Hamas in its entirety as “a proscribed terrorist organization” in
November 2021… That legitimizes calling Hamas “terrorists”…</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF2Wv2sd1VSr4O3CCE183nhY3Zxg54wdJDFoQliGW-r0hWvx1CDOQWwsEAf9gNVcajWPS5dzxQQ3KonwDNgn_-LrG0WL_6lkfKWxIJfC2g6OKgfjmmd_gPiIi-u0ME94l-90b6L8hOhQEqtVjwEzdjhBPgtWmiox3LwQ85sCkhcP-uCxNQYD4m6GLh66yc/s460/Simon%20Heffer.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="460" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF2Wv2sd1VSr4O3CCE183nhY3Zxg54wdJDFoQliGW-r0hWvx1CDOQWwsEAf9gNVcajWPS5dzxQQ3KonwDNgn_-LrG0WL_6lkfKWxIJfC2g6OKgfjmmd_gPiIi-u0ME94l-90b6L8hOhQEqtVjwEzdjhBPgtWmiox3LwQ85sCkhcP-uCxNQYD4m6GLh66yc/s320/Simon%20Heffer.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">“Simpson says that “it’s
simply not the BBC’s job to tell people who to support and who to condemn.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Describing a group using a legally
defined-term that our legislators have decided to apply to it does not instruct
people whom to support and whom to condemn: it simply recognizes a legal fact
that is obvious to most of the BBC’s audience…”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On 12 October the <i>Daily
Telegraph</i> devoted its leader to the subject.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“How do we describe people who, armed to the
teeth, infiltrate peaceful gatherings and commit wanton slaughter of men, women
and children?...Most people would have little difficulty calling this
terrorism and yet the BBC refuses to do so. The Hamas gunmen who committed
these atrocities are described as militants, or activists or insurgents…. There
should be no moral ambiguity here. It is time for the BBC and others to call
Hamas what it is: a terrorist organization.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 1cm;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On 20 October the BBC appeared to yield just a fraction, but in fact it moved scarcely at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In future, it announced, its journalists
will describe Hamas as a group “proscribed as a terror organization by the UK
Government and others”. In other words, the BBC still forbids its journalists from calling them terrorists outright. The BBC will also refrain from invariably describing them as “militants” though it reserves the right to do so on occasion. A more mealy-mouthed retraction it would be difficult to imagine. So the controversy continues.</span><o:p></o:p></p>Neville Tellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14374486593206478730noreply@blogger.com0