Friday, 29 June 2018

Hezbollah in Britain

                                                                        Video version
A rumour is circulating in the British press to the effect that the UK is about to designate Hezbollah, lock, stock and barrel, a terrorist organization.  It would not be before time. The UK first proscribed Hezbollah's terrorist wing in 2001, and added the military wing in 2008 after the organization targeted British soldiers in Iraq, but it has reserved judgment on the organization as a whole because of its political activities.  Any such distinction, which the EU has copied from the UK, is illusory. Hezbollah is a unified organization, and its jihadist purpose is basic to its existence.  Even Hezbollah’s own leaders reject the distinction.  Deputy secretary-general Naim Qassem has declared unequivocally: “We have one leadership, with one administration."  Speaking in 2012, he added: "We don't have a military wing and a political one...Every element of Hezbollah…is in the service of the resistance."

A glance at Hezbollah’s organization confirms this.  It has a unified command structure consisting of five sub-councils, or assemblies.  Above them sits the Shura Council, which controls the leadership of Hezbollah and all its operations, and comprises nine members, seven of whom are Lebanese and the other two Iranian. 

Iran’s involvement at the very top of today’s Hezbollah is no surprise.  In the 1970s Lebanon, torn apart by civil conflict, was under the occupation of the Shia-aligned Syrian government.  Around 1980 the exact date is disputed Iran’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomenei, still basking in the glory of his 1979 Islamic Revolution, decided to strengthen his grip on Shi’ite Islam by consolidating a number of Lebanon’s militant Shia Muslim groups.  He formed and funded a body calling itself Hezbollah, or “the Party of God”.  Its forces were trained and organized by a contingent of 1,500 Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Hezbollah declared that its purpose, in line with Khomeini’s, was to oppose Western influences in general and Israel’s existence in particular.  Very shortly Hezbollah was acting as Iran’s proxy in perpetrating a campaign of terror against their two perceived enemies. A wave of kidnappings, bombings, and assassinations were carried out across the world.  These include the detonation in 1983 of an explosive-filled van in front of the US embassy in Beirut, killing 58 Americans and Lebanese, and the bombing of the US Marine and French Drakkar barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 American and 58 French peacekeepers.

In 1992 Hezbollah operatives boasted of their involvement in the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina killing 29 people, and two years later claimed responsibility for the bombing of a Jewish community centre in Argentina and the subsequent death of 85 people.  The atrocities continued:  21 people, including 12 Jews, killed in an airplane attack in Panama in 1994; the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing inside Saudi Arabia killing 19 US servicemen; the 2005 assassination of one-time Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri; the 2012 Burgas bus bombing in Bulgaria killing 6. For the past seven years Iran has recruited thousands of Hezbollah fighters to help keep Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in power and restore his lost territories to him.  

It is no surprise, therefore, that Hezbollah in its entirety has been designated a terrorist body by the Arab League, as well as by a swathe of other nations including Canada, the Netherlands, the USA, Israel and all the Gulf states that form the Gulf Cooperation Council.
 
During its 38 bloodthirsty years of existence Hezbollah has managed to achieve a certain acceptability in Shia Muslim sections of Lebanese society. In the election that followed Israel's withdrawal in May 2000 from the buffer zone it had established along the border, Hezbollah, in alliance with Amal, took all 23 South Lebanon seats out of a total 128 parliamentary seats. Since then Hezbollah has participated in Lebanon's parliamentary process, and has been able to claim a proportion of cabinet posts in each government. As a result it has achieved substantial power within Lebanon’s body politic to a point where it has been dubbed “a state within a state”.

It is this political aspect of Hezbollah’s activities that has turned the heads of certain Western politicians, some of whom may not be entirely out of sympathy with Hezbollah’s aim of removing the state of Israel from the Middle East.  Not so Sajid Javid, Britain’s newly appointed Home Secretary, the first Muslim to achieve one of the UK’s major offices of state.  His rumoured decision to proscribe Hezbollah in its entirety has come about because of the outrage expressed by many at the sight of the Hezbollah flag being paraded through the streets of London in this year’s Al-Quds Day march.
          Back in 1979 Iran’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeni, designated the last Friday of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan to be International Al-Quds Day.  Muslims were urged to use it to demonstrate their support for the Palestinians, and their opposition to Israel.  For more than a decade London has witnessed an annual mass demonstration to mark the occasion.  In the past few years, since it became clear that thousands of Hezbollah troops have been fighting alongside Iran to support Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in his no-holds-barred efforts, including the use of chemical weapons, to cling to power, the sight of Hezbollah supporters waving its flag in the UK’s capital has become increasingly unacceptable.

Shortly after Javid’s predecessor as Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, was appointed in 2016 she said that if people reported seeing the Hezbollah flag displayed in London, action would be taken.  In the event, this was found to be not legally possible, since only the military wing of the organization had been proscribed by the UK.  She never got round to remedying the situation.

"Sajid is a very different beast to the Home Secretary he has just replaced,” a government source told the UK’s Jewish Chronicle.  Deeds, not mere words, will prove the point.

Published in the MPC Journal, 2 July 2018:
http://mpc-journal.org/blog/2018/07/02/hezbollah-in-britain/

Published in the Eurasia Review, 3 July 2018:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/03072018-hezbollah-in-britain-oped/

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 10 July 2018:
https://www.jpost.com/Blogs/A-Mid-East-Journal/Hezbollah-in-Britain-561173

Tuesday, 26 June 2018

The Love of Books

It was, I remember, late in December, many years ago, at the time of day when evening is coming on but it is still not dark enough for the lights to be lit, that my husband Roni and I were wandering – as we often did in those early years of our marriage, before the children came – through the alleyways of old Jerusalem.  At length we came to a short passageway which opened out into a tiny court.  We looked about us.  To left and right the crumbling frontages of two houses, vaguely oriental in appearance, eyed each other blankly through grimy uncurtained windows.  Then, in one corner, I thought I could detect an unexpected sight.
"Over there," I said, "isn't that a bookshop?"
"Ruth my love," said Roni, "you could smell out a bookshop at a thousand paces blindfolded!  I'll bet you’re right."
"And you, Roni my darling, could be trusted to take a bet on whether tomorrow will be Wednesday.  Come on, let's go over and see."
We emerged from the passageway, and the sounds of the old city faded behind us.  As we made our way towards the far corner, the feeling of remoteness from everyday life was intensified.  I was gripped by the strange sensation that time itself had somehow been suspended. 
At length we stood before the tiny shop front. A faded façade proclaimed “Labac – Antiquarian Books".  I tried the door.  For a moment it stuck, but then it gave beneath my pressure.
Both walls were lined from top to bottom with books, but the shop was so high that the shelves faded into the shadows.  The effect of books extending into infinity was even stronger as I peered into the interior, a narrowing cone of booklined darkness.
I looked about. 
"Where do you think the owner is?"
"I am over here, madame."
A stooped figure emerged from the shadows.  White‑haired, with a small goatee beard, and with half‑moon spectacles perched on the end of his nose, the man seemed to personify the spirit of scholarship.
“Come in," he said.  “And you, sir.”
I closed the door. 
"Thank you, Mr...?”
"Monsieur Labac,” said the old man.  "I prefer 'Monsieur'.  My family spent many hundreds of years in France before I made my way to Israel.  I am too old now to want to change the customs of a lifetime."
He peered at me.
“Forgive an old man's eccentricities, but I like to know who I am dealing with.  Anonymity I hate, above all things."
"I am Ruth Illyon,” I said.  "This is my husband, Roni.”
"Enchanté," said the old man.  "And now, what can I do for you?"
"My wife is bewitched by books," said Roni.  "She finds it almost impossible to pass by a bookshop.  Philosophers – that's her special delight."
            The old man turned to me.                
"My dear, your husband tells me two things about you.  He tells me that you love books for themselves, and he tells me that you love what books contain.  Believe me,  Mrs Illyon, the two do not always go together."
The old man's eyes rested on me, and it seemed as if somewhere deep in my mind a key turned and a door opened. 
"I know what you mean," I said, and suddenly I did.  “For some people it is enough to hold an old book in their hands, to caress the leather covers, to experience the sensual pleasure of running their fingers over the ancient paper.  The words inscribed on those pages are of minor significance.  For others, the content is all.  The mystery, the excitement, the magic, is that the mind of one individual, long since dead, can through the medium of the printed page communicate over the centuries with one's own.  Thoughts, ideas, have been captured and transferred across hundreds of' years, from one mind to another.”
"But for you, my dear," said Monsieur Labac, "the two mysteries merge and become one.  Am I right?"
"I must admit it."
"And you, Mr Illyon, do you share your wife's obsession?"
Roni grinned. 
"Afraid not, Monsieur Labac.  I have my own.  I like the occasional gamble."
"These two books, Monsieur Labac,” I said.  "They seem very ancient."
"One is, and one is not.  As you see, both are entitled The Book of the Cabal.  The original ...  this ...  well, this is priceless.  In one of the big auction houses in London or New York it could fetch millions.  But see – a very clever publisher about a hundred years ago actually reproduced the effect of this ancient volume and some of the material.  Here…”
It was skilfully done.  The effect of the original had been cunningly recreated, down to the faded ink, the ragged edges to the pages, even the worn binding.
"What is the book?”  I asked.
"The original is connected with one of the most closely guarded aspects of ancient Jewish philosophy.  You know of the Caballah, Mrs Illyon?"
"Not very much, " I admitted.
The old man's delicate hands rested on one of the tomes. 
"Locked into the five sacred books of the Torah is the mystery of the universe.  Over the centuries a few gifted and privileged scholars have given their lives to wrestling with the texts.  This volume – and the clever reproduction of it – records part of that long journey of' discovery."
"The reproduction," I said.  “"It's so beautiful.  Dare I ask how much it costs?”
Roni groaned.
"Mrs Illyon,” said the old man, "believe me when I tell you that this is one book that I would not on any account sell to someone I thought unworthy of it.  You I think worthy.  I will sell it to you for ...  fifty dollars."
"Then of course I will take it," I said.  "You will accept a cheque?"
“But of course."
"Lend me your pen, Roni.”
"Tell me, Monsieur Labac,” said Roni, as he handed it over, "does Caballah tackle human existence?"
"A few caballists have bent their minds to the question of where the division lies between predicting and pre‑ordaining events – that is, between discerning what is written on the page of the future, and actually inscribing a word or two on that page."
"But surely," I protested, "there's all the difference in the world."
"Not so, madame.  One of the fundamental principles of humanity's contract with the Almighty is free will.   However powerful a caballist may be in bending future events to his desires, each individual involved will preserve to the last instant his own freedom of decision – a freedom he can exercise to frustrate the desired end.  The page of the future is infinitely variable."
He stopped suddenly. 
"There, I've spoken too much already.  And it's getting late."
And indeed, close as we stood to him, I had to strain through the gloom to see him as he hastily wrapped up my book in brown paper, which he tied with string.
He escorted us down the shop and we walked past him into the tiny square.
"Goodbye," said the old man. 
He had not ventured over the threshold so that now, dark as it had become, he seemed, in a strange way, to be one with the shadows.
We left the courtyard by the short alley‑way through which we had entered, and almost immediately we saw ahead a small coffee shop, its front piled high with Arab sweetmeats, their honey coating glistening under the bare electric bulbs.  I was determined to examine my latest acquisition under the lights, so we went in and ordered Turkish coffee and cakes.  While waiting, I unwrapped my parcel.  The book it contained was not in my hands for more than thirty seconds before I realised that old Monsieur Labac had made a terrible mistake.
I look up at Roni, aghast. 
“He's given us the wrong volume.  This isn't the reproduction ‑ it's the original.  He must have got confused.  It was so dark in that shop.  We must go back."
"Ruth, my darling," said Roni, "an old Latin saying has governed the relations between buyers and sellers for thousands of years: caveat emptor – buyer beware.  It holds true for sellers, too.  Just think what that book could buy us – all the things we want."
“Nonsense," I said, "it couldn't buy us a family.  And do you think I'm going to steal a book worth millions from that wonderful old man, simply because he made a mistake?  Especially after the way he treated me."
"You're right, of course," said Roni.  “Come on, we’ll go back.  It's only round the corner."
When we re­-emerged into the courtyard, the tiny shop in the far corner was silent and dark.  I rapped on the glass and called out “Monsieur Labac!  Monsieur Labac!”.
A tiny flicker of light glimmered far away in the recesses of the shop, like a remote star in the endless void of space.  It advanced towards us, and at length I saw Monsieur Labac approaching, an oil lamp in his hand. 
"Mrs Illyon?   Is that you?"
"Yes, Monsieur Labac," I called.  "We had to come back."
The old man unlocked the door and pulled it open.
"It's the book you sold us," I said.  "Take it.  Look."
I thrust the volume into his hands.  He put down the oil lamp and took it. 
I don't know what reaction I had expected – horror, distress, amazement, relief.  To me it seemed that his over‑riding emotion was an immense satisfaction.  He hugged the book to him.
“Mrs Illyon.  The original Book of the Cabal.  You returned it to me, although I told you it was so valuable."
"It was the only thing to do."
“Ah, there you are mistaken," he said.  "There are always choices, always the chance to frustrate those who would foretell the shape of future events.  Others might have decided differently – you and your husband chose to exercise your free will in this way." 
He took up the oil lamp and moved slowly off down the shop to the counter, where the other volume still lay.  We followed, and eventually stood close together in the gloom, the lamp casting a soft glow on our faces.
“Mrs Illyon,” he said, as he began wrapping the volume, “you remember what I was saying to you earlier?  I might have predicted that you would return here with this infinitely precious volume; I could have tried to ordain it; but I could never have guaranteed it.”
"I understand that," I said.
            "Which is why I am diffident about what I have to say to you now, my dear Mrs Illyon.  If it teaches us anything, the Cabal teaches that existence is not purposeless; on the contrary, each life is full of purpose – often frustrated, of course, because of that free will about which we have spoken.  So when I say I foretell certain events, I do so because I can distinguish, however obliquely, certain purposes…  And so I say to you, my dear Mrs Illyon, that one day you and your husband will travel abroad and become the recipient of a great fortune.  This, dear Mrs Illyon, it is intended that you will use to found a library, here in this holy city of Jerusalem.  It will start as a modest collection, but it will become a great institution. This is the purpose, you are the chosen instrument.  Because of it your name will be remembered for hundreds of years after you, and your husband, and I, have passed away from the earth.  Listen, my dear Mrs Illyon, and remember ...”
We left the shop, Roni and I, shaken as much by the intensity of the old man's vision as by his strange words.  A week or so later, walking again through the old city, I tried to find the short alleyway and the tiny court, but never again did I set eyes upon that little courtyard with the bookshop in one corner.
So why has old Monsieur Labac been so much in my mind these last few days? The reason is quickly told. 
For several years after our little adventure, Roni and I were too tied up with starting our small family and getting established in business to take a holiday abroad.  Later, the truth is that we were scared – scared in case the old man's prophecy was not fulfilled, and scared in case it was.  So we put off going, time and again. 
Eventually, the illness of a very dear member of our family forced us to put all reservations to one side and fly quickly to the States. Fortunately our relative made a reasonable recovery, but while we were there Roni succumbed to the temptations of the Mega Millions lottery. In the week we arrived the rollover for the following draw exceeded one billion dollars.  We bought our ticket on Monday; on Tuesday we flew back to Israel.  Think of us – picture our state of mind this weekend – as we sit glued to the computer screen, awaiting the result of the draw.
Monsieur Labac, where are you?  Who are you?   It was only yesterday, as I was idly writing your name again and again on a scrap of paper, that I realised just what your name spells – backwards.


Friday, 22 June 2018

Gruesome business

The lurid tale of a German beer company that helped the Nazis build crematoria

            The city of Erfurt in the federal state of Thuringia in central Germany has a unique claim to fame.  It contains the only Holocaust memorial housed on the site of an industrial manufacturing company.  Why this is so, and how it came about, is the subject of Karen Bartlett’s new book Architects of Death

            The company concerned was J A Topf and Sons, a firm founded in the late-nineteenth century to engage in the innocuous business of brewing beer, based on Johan Andreas Topf’s patented firing system for heating malt, hops and water.  In her meticulously researched account, Bartlett traces, step by step, how this typical small-time German firm was transformed into a major supplier to the SS of the crematoria and gas chambers used in the Nazi death camps to exterminate millions of human beings.

            Bartlett shows beyond any shadow of doubt that the brothers who headed the firm during the Nazi era, as well as the engineers, officials and other employees engaged in this aspect of their business, were fully aware of the purpose for which their crematoria were intended.  The company made no effort to hide their involvement − indeed they stamped their Topf logo prominently in the iron of their gas ovens, achieving a sort of immortality when post-war newsreels filmed the crematoria that fuelled the Holocaust. 

            During the 1930s the firm’s involvement with firing systems had led them to develop a mobile waste incinerator. In May 1939, with Buchenwald concentration camp already established in Thuringia, and the number of dead bodies piling up, local crematoria were unable to cope and the SS approached Topf and Sons.  Their chief engineer, Kurt Prüfer, adapted the firm’s waste incinerator into a mobile oil-heated cremation oven.  An initial order for three mobile ovens followed, and the firm was set on the path that led to its full-scale involvement in the Holocaust. 

            As the network of concentration camps grew, and with them SS demands for ever more efficient systems of disposing of corpses, Prüfer dedicated himself to developing technical improvements to his ovens, and Topf expanded its manufacturing capacity accordingly.  Most of those engaged in this gruesome business exhibited no trace of moral objection.  Crematoria with one incineration chamber were succeeded by those with two, then with three.  Mobile ovens were soon followed by permanent crematoria inside the camps, starting with Buchenwald where Prüfer and the Topf team were able to install four powerful crematoria which together could consume 9000 bodies each day. Work at Buchenwald was followed by Dachau, then Mauthausen, then Auschwitz-Birkenau.
            Following the notorious Wannsee conference in January 1941, at which leading Nazis agreed to implement Hitler’s Final Solution, the mad, amoral business proceeded at an even more furious pace.  In high level SS meetings at Auschwitz to consider the design and
functioning of the gas chambers in Bunkers 1 and 2, Prüfer offered to design and supply 8-chamber incinerators for each Bunker. 

            This willing immersion by the Topf engineering division in a wholly immoral enterprise infected the firm.  Fritz Sander, a long-standing and highly respected Topf employee, was manager of the furnace construction division.  Jealous of Prüfer’s obvious success in developing ever-more efficient methods of corpse disposal, he decided to apply his own mind to the problem, and dreamed up a stomach-churning ”corpse incineration oven for mass operation”, and applied for a patent.

            Interrogated by the Soviet authorities after the war – for indeed, with the exception of one of the Topf brothers who committed suicide, the leading Topf managers stood trial – Sander explained that his crematoria were designed “on the conveyor belt principle, with bodies carried into the ovens continuously by mechanical means”. 

No such crematorium was ever constructed, but by 1943 Kurt Prüfer was already hard at work planning the expansion of the Auschwitz death factory.  His design for a sixth crematorium was based on continuous combustion industrial ring ovens, using a central fuel source and reducing costs by up to 70 per cent.  By the time the firm might have been ready to put the project into effect, Germany had its back to the wall, and the Nazi genocide project had run out of time.

            The first investigation into the Topf company’s involvement in the Holocaust was conducted by the US Counter Intelligence Corps the day after the liberation of Buchenwald in April 1945.  US officers had seen the Topf logo displayed prominently on the ovens.  In July the city of Erfurt was transferred from American to Soviet control, and subsequently three Topf managers were indicted for “criminal responsibility for their participation in the horrific acts of the Hitlerites in the concentration camps,” and subject to rigorous investigation by the Russian judicial system.

            Excuses, justifications, evasions, untruths were swept aside.  All three confessed to the charges laid against them, and were found guilty without even standing trial. All were sentenced to twenty-five years hard labour.  Prüfer died in prison in 1952.  The other two were released after nine years as part of a German-Soviet prisoner amnesty deal.

            In Architects of Death Karen Bartlett describes in fascinating detail how a perfectly ordinary manufacturing firm came to ignore the total immorality of the business they sought, engaged in and encouraged.  It does not make for a pleasant read, but it is undoubtedly a salutary one.
            

Published in the Jerusalem Post Magazine, June 22, 2018
http://ow.ly/SwXM30kCezR

Monday, 18 June 2018

Trump’s Israel-Palestine peace plan – its test run


                    
                                                                                 Video version
          On 15 June 2018 senior US administration officials met with UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, in New York to discuss US efforts “to promote peace in the Middle East and to meet humanitarian needs in Gaza.” Joining the meeting were Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, two of the three envoys (the third is David Friedman, US ambassador to Israel) who are leading Trump’s Middle East peace effort. Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN, was also present. Reports had already indicated that the US’s carefully crafted peace plan was virtually complete.

          This courtesy meeting, at which the terms of the long-awaited plan might well have been disclosed to Guterres, took place just before Kushner and Greenblatt embarked on a tour of the Middle East to gauge whether the moderate Arab world is ready to consider it. Perhaps, also, they will be testing opinion on the optimum timing for its rollout.


          Their itinerary included Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Israel. Significantly, there were no plans to meet with the Palestinian Authority, whose President Mahmoud Abbas severed relations with the US when, in December 2017, Trump declared Jerusalem to be Israel’s capital and subsequently moved the US embassy there from Tel Aviv.

          Earlier Washington has said that the peace plan would be released only when “the timing was right”. It is on the question of timing that differences of opinion have emerged.

          The Kushner-Greenblatt visit was set up hard on the heels of Trump’s historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. There is some suspicion that the president is tempted by the prospect of achieving a “double whammy” − a second major diplomatic coup on the world stage by way of the long-anticipated rollout of the Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. Some voices are urging caution.

          Although the plan has been completed for some months, the president and the team charged with this issue – Kushner, Greenblatt and Friedman  – have been debating the right time and method for rolling it out. Reports suggest that Kushner has wanted the plan expedited, while Friedman has been lobbying for a delay.

          The Jerusalem Post has noted that Palestinian confidence in Trump and his team seems damaged beyond repair and, with the possibility of Israeli elections around the corner, the paper thought that prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be unlikely to sign up to a peace deal that required him to make unpopular concessions and security risks.

          It also believed that PA President Mahmoud Abbas, who once designated Friedman the “son of a dog” and called for Trump’s “house to be destroyed”, has proved on numerous occasions that he is not sincere about making a peace deal. Some senior members of Trump’s inner circle were questioning the chance of a deal this time as well.

          The paper added another word of caution. Experience has shown that violence between Israel and the Palestinians tends to break out after peace talks fall apart. This had happened in 2000 with the eruption of the Second Intifada after the failed Camp David talks, and might have happened in 2015 with the round of stabbings that came on the heels of the breakdown in the talks brokered by former secretary of state John Kerry. Peace talks seem to create hope, but that when that hope is shattered, violence erupts.

          Before rolling out the plan, wrote the Jerusalem Post, Trump and his team needed to ask themselves the most important question of all – what was their real purpose? Their answer would determine what might be the best course of action.

                          

          Pessimistic prognostications about the chances of the plan's success, or of its acceptance by either the Palestinians or the Israeli government, assume that this plan will simply mirror past peace efforts - all of which, without exception, have failed. There is convincing evidence that the Kushner-Greenblatt-Friedman effort will be nothing like previous plans. To start with, they have assiduously discussed and negotiated the possible outlines of a viable peace deal with the moderate Sunni Arab world - a wide group of Arab nations that, for the first time in 70 years, find themselves aligned with Israel on the one vital issue facing all - Iran and its unacceptable ambitions to dominate the Middle East.

           Secondly, there are good reasons for believing that the peace team have been thinking "outside the box". They have built up warm relations with Saudi Arabia and its charismatic young Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman - and Saudi Arabia heads the Arab League. It is not unlikely that the Arab League as a whole may give its support and its cover for the Trump initiative.


          Lateral thinking may also have embraced the status and position of Jordan in any Israeli-Palestinian final settlement. It is noteworthy that Netanyahu paid a secret visit to Jordan's King Abdullah on Sunday June 17, and that the first port of call for the Trump peace team was also to Jordan's King Abdullah. In this connection, the concept of establishing two legal entities simultaneously has been mooted: a sovereign state of Palestine, and a Confederation of Jordan, Israel and Palestine.


          A confederation is a form of government in which constituent states maintain their independence while amalgamating certain aspects of administration, such as security or commerce. A Jordan-Israel-Palestine confederation would be dedicated above all to defending itself and its constituent sovereign states, but additionally to cooperating in the fields of commerce, infrastructure and economic development, and also in administering Jerusalem’s holy sites.

          Such a solution, based on an Arab-wide consensus, could absorb Palestinian extremist objections, making it abundantly clear that any subsequent armed opposition, from whatever source - including Hamas - would be disciplined from within, and crushed by the combined and formidable defense forces of the confederation.

          A confederation of three sovereign states, dedicated to providing high-tech security but also future economic growth and prosperity for all its citizens – here’s where the answer to a peaceful and thriving Middle East might lie.


Published in the Jerusalem Post on-line, 19 June 2018:
https://www.jpost.com/Blogs/A-Mid-East-Journal/Trumps-peace-plan-its-test-run-560365

Published in the Eurasia Review, 28 June 2018:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/28062018-trumps-israel-palestine-peace-plan-its-test-run-analysis/

Published in the MPC Journal, 25 June 2018:
http://mpc-journal.org/blog/2018/06/25/trumps-israel-palestine-peace-plan-its-test-run/

Thursday, 14 June 2018

Who follows Abbas?


                                           
                                                                                Video version
          Reaching the age of 83 is no big deal these days. Centenarians abound. But Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas is 83 with a long history of health problems. Some twenty years ago he underwent an operation for prostate cancer. Subsequently, as a heavy smoker, he has struggled against a succession of health issues, many connected with his heart.

          In an emergency heart procedure in 2016, he had stents implanted to counter arterial plaque. On February 20, while addressing the UN Security Council, he appeared at times to struggle for breath. After a series of tests at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, a German-Palestinian cardiologist was engaged to be available in the presidential compound at Ramallah whenever Abbas was there. Abbas’s personal physician also visits the compound every day.

          On May 16 Abbas was admitted to hospital for what was described as minor surgery on his ear. Some sort of infection followed, and over the next few days he was in and out of hospital several times. On May 20, he was readmitted with what was widely reported as severe pneumonia. The Arab newspaper al-Hayat, published in London, claimed that he had a very high temperature and was breathing on a respirator. Eight days later he was discharged, claiming to be thoroughly fit and ready to resume work immediately.

          This latest episode has highlighted a major weakness at the core of the Palestinian body politic – the absence of a clearly nominated successor to the president. Fearful of the political consequences, Abbas for years steadfastly resisted either naming a deputy, or putting in place a mechanism for producing one in an emergency. In the last few months, however, he has taken two significant steps.

          The first was in relation to Fatah’s Revolutionary Council. He passed a resolution specifying that if he were to become incapacitated, his vice-chairman, Mahmoud al-Aloul, would replace him for 60 days as chairman until an election could be organized. He also manipulated matters so that, if he left the scene, the election of a new PA chairman would fall to the Palestine Liberation Organization Central Committee, not as previously to the Palestine Legislative Council (PLC) which Hamas controls. Hamas has therefore been sidelined in the future struggle over the succession.

          But neither of these moves addresses the vital issue of who is to succeed Abbas when the time comes. As a result a galaxy of hopefuls are in orbit, and Abbas’s departure will trigger a no-holds-barred rush to fill the vacancy.

          The people surrounding Abbas are led by General Majid Faraj, head of the intelligence service, and Saeb Erekat, secretary-general of the PLO’s steering committee. Erekat, the Palestinian’s chief negotiator, although 20 years younger than Abbas, is reliably reported to be suffering from pulmonary fibrosis and in need of a lung transplant. He is therefore scarcely in the running.

          At least five other senior Fatah party members see themselves as potential successors to Abbas. There is Mahmoud al-Aloul (vice-chairman of Fatah), Jibril Rajoub, (secretary-general of Fatah), Dr. Mohammed a-Shattiyeh and Tawfik al-Tirawi (both members of the Fatah Central Committee). But top of the list is Marwan Barghouti, who is in an Israeli jail serving five life sentences for the murder of Israeli citizens. In the most recent poll of Palestinian public opinion Barghouti emerged as by far the most popular Palestinian leader.

          But lurking in the backwoods of Palestinian politics is a man whom Abbas recognizes as his deadly rival. Nearly thirty years younger than Abbas, he has been a thorn in the president’s flesh from the moment of his election, continually criticizing him for weak leadership and corruption, a charge he extends to Abbas’s two sons. In response, Abbas has had him and his followers expelled from the Fatah party and exiled from the West Bank. This 57-year-old hate figure – hated and feared not only by Abbas, but by all within the Fatah movement with aspirations to succeed the ageing president – is Mohammed Yusuf Dahlan. 
                              
   
          Born in the Khan Yunis refugee camp in the Gaza strip in 1961, Dahlan became politically active as a teenager. His CV contains the necessary items for political acceptance in Palestinian circles – time spent in an Israeli jail for terrorist activities. Between 1981 and 1986 he was arrested no less than 11 times. In 2007, consistent with his pro-Fatah – and therefore anti-Hamas – stance, Dahlan assisted in an abortive US plan to overthrow the Hamas administration that had seized power in Gaza. 

          In 2010, to a closed meeting of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, Abbas accused Dahlan,  along with two others, of acting as spies for Israel. He had knowledge, he claimed, of ties between Dahlan and Israeli leaders. He followed this up by asserting that Dahlan and his followers were involved in the assassination of Salah Shahadeh, the leader of Hamas’s military wing, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike in 2002. Then he topped the list of accusations by hinting that Dahlan and his associates – “the three spies” Abbas dubbed them – were involved in the death of Yasser Arafat.

          Dahlan, declared Abbas, would never be allowed back in Fatah, nor, he suggested, was there room in the party for those still loyal to him. In response, Dahlan asserted on his Facebook page that Abbas’s speech was “full of lies and deception” which he proposed one day to disclose.

         With the recent poll of Palestinian public opinion registering a dissatisfaction rating for Abbas at 63 percent and two-thirds of respondents favoring his resignation, reports are circulating that Egypt and the UAE are encouraging Dahlan to form a new Palestinian party in order to challenge Abbas now, and to run in the next presidential election. However the Arabic Nabd news agency reported that earlier in 2018 Dahlan had held a referendum in Gaza, Lebanon and Jordan, where many of his supporters reside, to gauge support for a new party, but that it did not produce a clear result. Fatah seems too deeply embedded in the Palestinian consciousness, and Dahlan appreciated that forming a new party could result in his being accused of trying to pull Fatah apart, while Abbas attempted to keep it together. Consequently he is resisting the call, even though Egypt could support Dahlan politically, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia could cover him financially.

           These, then, are the riders and runners in the grand political Palestinian Derby that is in the offing. The Arab world is busily engaged in placing its bets.



Published in the Jerusalem Post, 12 June 2018:
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Who-will-succeed-Mahmoud-Abbas-559715

Published in the Jerusalem Post on-line as "After Abbas", 14 June 2018:
https://www.jpost.com/Blogs/A-Mid-East-Journal/After-Abbas-559941

Published in the MPC Journal, 18 June 2018:
http://mpc-journal.org/blog/2018/06/18/who-follows-mahmoud-abbas/

Published in the Eurasia Review, 20 June 2018:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/20062018-who-follows-mahmoud-abbas-analysis/