The
truce deal included a halt to offensive military operations, permitting fuel
imports into Houthi-controlled ports and some flights from Sanaa airport which
has been closed to commercial flights since 2015. The Yemeni government
controls Yemen's airspace and seas.
Misunderstandings mark
the relationship between the two sides. On May 6 the Saudi-led alliance announced
a humanitarian gesture in support of the truce.
In coordination with the International Committee of the Red Cross, it said
it was in the process of freeing more than 100 Houthi prisoners and transporting
them back to Yemen. In the event 126
prisoners were repatriated, of which 108 were flown from Saudi Arabia to the
southern city of Aden, where Yemen’s Saudi-backed government is based. The Houthis refused to accept them. The head of the Houthis’ prisoner affairs
committee said the list of detainees included people “unknown to us and who are
not among our prisoners”.
They said that only five
of the detainees were “prisoners of war”, four were fishermen “who had been
kidnapped in the Red Sea” and nine of the detainees were foreigners from Africa. The Houthi movement said it welcomed the
freeing of any Yemenis, but called for coordination with its authorities – adding
that, for its part, the group had freed 400 prisoners of war so far in 2022.
On May 10 Hans
Grundberg, UN special envoy for Yemen, hastened to the country intent on
shoring up the truce. He had issues to
resolve with both sides. He needed to persuade the Houthis to resume flights
from Sanaa airport and to lift their siege of Taiz in south-western Yemen. He
had also to take into account the Houthis’ accusation that the government had
been impeding fuel shipments to the port of Hodeidah.
Grundberg made
progress. The government had been insisting
that all passengers on flights from Sanaa carry government-issued passports. By May 12 Grundberg had persuaded the Saudi
coalition to allow Houthi-issued passport holders to travel outside Yemen,
removing the major obstacle to the resumption of commercial flights from Sanaa
under the truce deal.
Meanwhile, in the face
of a potential environmental disaster, the two sides in Yemen’s civil conflict
did at least agree on one issue.
The FSO (floating,
storage and offloading vessel) Safer was constructed in 1976 as an oil
tanker and converted to an FSO facility a decade later. It is among the
largest oil tankers in the world and is currently holding more than a million
barrels of oil. Anchored off Yemen’s Red Sea coast for more
than 30 years, it has been out of use since 2015 and is now beyond repair and
at imminent risk of spilling its contents into the Red Sea. The consequences would be disastrous. Fishing
communities on the Red Sea coast would be devasted, and the nearby ports of Hodeidah
and Saleef, the lifelines allowing food, fuel and humanitarian supplies to
enter Yemen, would close.
On May 11 the UN and the
Netherlands co-sponsored a pledging conference in the Hague, in an effort to raise
the $144 million required to prevent the Safer from splitting, breaking
apart or exploding. The plan is to install
a replacement vessel within 18 months, and meanwhile to transfer the oil from
the decaying tanker to a safe temporary vessel in a four-month emergency
operation.
In a video message to
the conference, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed the need
for urgent action. “Today’s event is a critical step towards preventing a
catastrophe that would affect Yemen, the region and the world,” he said.
“There isn’t a moment to lose.”
Some $40 million was
immediately pledged by 10 donor countries plus the EU, and is now available to
allow a start to be made. The UN-coordinated plan is supported by both the
Yemeni government coalition and the Houthis.
The official
coordinating the UN Development Program in Yemen, Auke Lootsma, emphasized the
urgent need for the rest of the funding: “If we do not receive sufficient
funding urgently, the weather window to transfer the oil will close. By
October, high winds and volatile currents make the operation more dangerous and
increase the risk of the ship breaking up.”
This common danger has
already generated a degree of agreement between the disputing sides in Yemen,
and might well induce more. So the UN is trying to arrange for the truce to be
extended beyond June 2, to allow for negotiations aimed at ending the
seven-year war.
The war can be brought
to a close only through an understanding between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis,
but all parties will need to be realistic about the limits of the Houthis’
capacity for compromise, particularly when it comes to their relationship with
Iran. What Yemen really needs are
elections, an inclusive government, and a new structure for the state. UN
Resolution 2216 aims to establish democracy in a federally united
Yemen. The Houthis must be given the opportunity to choose. Do they wish
to remain an outlawed militia permanently, or would they prefer to become a
legitimate political party, able to contest parliamentary and presidential
elections and participate in government? The price would be serious engagement
in negotiations aimed at a peaceful transition to a political solution for a
united Yemen.
Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post on-line, 29 May 2022:
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-707919
Published in Eurasia Review, 11 June 2022:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/11062022-the-precarious-yemen-truce-oped/
Published in Jewish Business News, 10 June 2022;
https://jewishbusinessnews.com/2022/06/10/the-precarious-yemen-truce/
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