Published in the Jerusalem Post, 1 April 2024
Six months into the Gaza war, and world opinion
– widely in support of Israel’s initial onslaught on Hamas following the
horrendous events of October 7 – has steadily hardened and turned. Appeals for a pause in the fighting have
grown ever more strident, culminating in the Resolution passed on March 25 by
the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire. The Resolution, while also demanding the immediate
and unconditional release of all the hostages held by Hamas, did not link the
ceasefire call to the hostage release.
In short, the UN is instructing Israel to stop fighting Hamas, giving it
time to revive and regroup and leaving it free to continue bombarding Israel
with rockets and drones. Security
Council members knew, of course, that demanding Hamas release all its hostages was
simply virtue signalling, since it is quite unenforceable. Hamas is a terrorist
organization, unbeholden to the UN or anyone else.
Arab street opinion and
the self-interest of Arab sovereign states rarely coincide. The Abraham Accords were initially sold to a
skeptical Arab public on the grounds that they would give rich Arab countries
unprecedented financial leverage on Israel, and would eventually improve conditions
for the Palestinians. Months into a
conflict that has cost thousands of lives, polls of Arab opinion indicate
overwhelming support for Hamas.
Regardless, Abraham Accord regimes, convinced that the benefits from the
Accords override other considerations, are sidelining public opinion.
It was back in 2020-2021
that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan signed the
deals, collectively known as the Abraham Accords. Sudan is a special case. For
nearly a year the country has been torn asunder by a ferocious civil war, and
is suffering one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history.
Fighting between the
army, headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burham. and the paramilitary Rapid
Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagtalo, has resulted in the
death of tens of thousands of people. Food is in short supply, and the threat
of famine for much of the population looms.
The world has regarded the rapidly developing tragedy with indifference.
Addressing the UN Security Council on March 20,
According to the UN more
than 18 million Sudanese are facing acute food insecurity – 10 million more
than at this time last year – while 730,000 Sudanese children are believed to
be suffering from severe malnutrition.
Eventually, no doubt, the conflict will end and Sudan will struggle back
to a more normal existence. Then will be
the time for its government to consider where the country’s best interests
lie, and whether to endorse its membership of the Accords or to reject it.
In the case of the UAE,
according to a March 10 report in the New York Times (NYT), Emirati
officials say they have no intention of cutting ties with Israel. On the contrary, in a document addressed to
the NYT, the Emirati government highlighted how its officials had used their
relationship with Israel to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid for
Gazans, as well as the medical treatment of injured Gazans taken to the
Emirates.
“The UAE believes that
diplomatic and political communications are important in difficult times such
as those we are witnessing,” said the government.
In late February economy minister Nir Barkat became the first Israeli minister to visit the Emirates since October 7. He attended the World Trade Organization’s ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi, and was seen shaking hands and chatting with Saudi Arabia’s commerce minister, Majid bin Abdullah Al-Qasabi. In an interview, he said he was “very optimistic” after meeting with Emirati officials.
“There’s a bit of
sensitivity while the war is still happening,” he said, but the two countries
“have aligned interests, and the Abraham Accords are extremely strategic for
all of us.”
An article by Middle
East specialist Joshua Krasna, published by the Foreign Policy Research
Institute, records the gesture pronouncement by the lower house of Bahrain’s
Parliament on November 2 declaring; “the halting of economic ties with Israel
and the return of ambassadors on both sides… in support of the Palestinian
cause and the legitimate rights of the brotherly Palestinian people.”
It was no more than a
gesture because the Bahraini parliament has no locus at all in the state’s foreign
policy. Krasna maintains that the
parliamentary initiative had no impact on formal diplomatic relations between
Israel and Bahrain.
He is uncertain, though,
about the scope and content of those relations post-war. The re-emergence of
the Palestinian issue as central to the regional and international agenda, he
believes, must have an impact – although as yet highly uncertain – on future
economic and political relations.
As regards Morocco, the
Qatar-based news medium, Al Jazeera, reports that despite rising public
anger in the country over the Israel–Hamas conflict, the normalization deal
between Morocco and Israel will likely hold.
Since early October,
thousands of Moroccans have marched in the capital, Rabat, with Palestinian
flags and slogans calling, among other things, for an end to Moroccan
government normalization with Israel. However high political
considerations, spearheaded by the king himself, outweigh popular
murmurings. The juicy carrot offered to Morocco by the Trump
administration as an inducement to sign up to the Accords was US recognition of
the nation’s claim to the disputed territory of Western Sahara. This
prize Morocco acquired, and it represents a major boost in its long dispute
with Algeria over claims to the territory.
Moreover, says Intissar
Fakir, a senior analyst at the Middle East Institute, the military advantage
Morocco has been able to acquire through deals with Israel, “is substantial…
[it] would be difficult for Morocco to walk away from this partnership with Israel.”
In general, analysts
assess that the effect of the Gaza conflict will be to slow, rather than halt,
Israel’s continuing normalization with Abraham Accord states UAE, Bahrain and
Morocco.
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, its relations with Israel still very warm, remains in the wings, perhaps awaiting the moment juste to sign up.
Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online, 1 April 2024:
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