Published in the Jerusalem Post, 26 August 2024
On August 14 the US digital news medium, Politico, published an exclusive report. It was based on accounts from three separate sources who had been privy to talks between the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and members of the US Congress.
These
talks were the latest in a series of detailed discussions that have been taking
place for years between the US and Saudi Arabia
They began during the presidency of Donald Trump, and preceded the
Abraham Accords. Over time the shape of
a complex agreement of major significance has emerged, clearly aimed at
boosting MBS’s ambitious program for securing Saudi’s future development – his Saudi
Vision 2030, launched in 2016, aimed at breaking the nation's total dependence
on oil and promoting additional means of developing the nation's potential.
In exchange for
commitments by the US to Saudi Arabia covering, among other issues, security,
technical assistance with developing a civilian nuclear program and investment
in areas such as high technology, Saudi Arabia would limit its dealings with
China and normalize its relations with Israel.
MBS had one proviso
before agreeing to breathe life into the draft deal. In line with
long-standing Saudi policy, he required firm approval by Israel to
the establishment of a Palestinian state. This stark condition has been somewhat
modified during the negotiating process.
MBS now requires the inclusion in the agreement of “a credible path
toward a Palestinian state”.
Despite widespread
global support, including that of the US, for the two-state solution, Benjamin
Netanyahu has so far refused to countenance fostering the development of a
sovereign Palestine. It could, he has pointed out, bring Iran-sponsored
terrorism into the heart of Israel, and place Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion airport
under permanent threat of attack.
The territories earmarked
to form the putative Palestinian state - the West Bank, east Jerusalem and
Gaza – were overrun by Jordan and Egypt during the 1948 Israel-Arab
conflict, and administered by them for twenty years. When originally
seized, Mandate Palestine had been dissolved and the land belonged to no
sovereign state. During the subsequent two decades neither Jordan nor
Egypt, which occupied those territories, made the slightest effort to form a
Palestinian state. The areas were won back by Israel in the Six Day War
in 1967 – and in the following years, through astute Palestinian propaganda,
they morphed in the public consciousness into “occupied Palestinian
land”. A political reality has been created, and Israel has been
increasingly pressured to support establishing a Palestinian state on
them.
Politico’s revelations about the latest round of talks include two apparently contradictory elements. On the one hand the reports indicate that MBS seems intent on striking this mega-deal with the US and Israel; on the other that he appears worried by the possibility of assassination if he does so. He is reported to have cited the fate of the Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat following his 1979 peace treaty with Israel. Sources say that he questioned whether the US had offered Sadat effective protection, and appeared to be requesting personal protection if or when the deal is ratified.
MBS could have indicated that the same considerations might apply to Netanyahu, who might have in mind the tragic end of his predecessor, Yitzhak Rabin. Having signed the first Oslo Accord in 1993 and finalized a peace treaty with Jordan in 1994, Rabin died at the hands of an Israeli extremist in November 1995. In truth, though, Netanyahu is more likely to be considering the implications for his precarious government coalition if he gave way on the two-state solution - which would, incidentally, be as unacceptable to Hamas and its followers as to his right wing ministers.
The reason for Saudi Arabia’s insistence on
“a credible path toward a Palestinian state” is entirely understandable.
The 2002 Arab Peace Initiative was conceived and proposed by King Salman's
predecessor on the throne, his half-brother then-Crown Prince Abdullah.
The Plan, endorsed on a number of occasions by the Arab League, advocates a
two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute. Given that, and a
just resolution of the Palestinian refugee issue, the Plan promises full
normalization of relations between the Muslim world and Israel.
In September
2021, when King Salman addressed the UN General Assembly, he reiterated Saudi
Arabia’s commitment to the 2002 Plan, ignoring the fact that it was
drafted well before Hamas gained control of Gaza in 2007. Members of the
League must now take into consideration that Hamas, with the support of much of
the Arab world, is dedicated to eliminating Israel from the Middle East, and
would certainly never endorse the idea of Israel continuing to exist alongside
a Palestinian state that occupied only a portion of what was once Mandate
Palestine.
In short, in
signing up to the US-Saudi-Israel deal MBS would be facing not only the fear of
assassination, but also - whether or not a Palestinian state was part of the
deal - endless conflict with Hamas or whatever jihadist organizations succeed
it. For it is morally certain there is no foreseeable end to the
rejectionist struggle to overthrow Israel and acquire the land “from the river
to the sea”.
World opinion, including
Saudi Arabia, that supports the two-state solution needs to face up to this
awkward truth: it will never work until the majority of the Palestinian
leadership acknowledges that the State of Israel is here to stay and endorses
its legitimacy. Since Saudi Arabia and the Arab world are promoting the
two-state solution, the ball is in their court. Only they can convert,
circumvent or disempower rejectionist organizations like Hamas.
If that is too great an
ask, then Saudi Arabia – despite its unique position as leader of the Sunni
Muslim world – will need to consider aligning its position with that of other
Abraham Accord signatories. All maintain their support for Palestinian
aspirations, but not at the expense of their own self interests. They
have decided to put establishing a Palestinian state on the back burner, and prioritize
the substantial benefits to their countries and the region of normalizing
relations with Israel.
In practical terms, therefore, is the price that Saudi Arabia is asking for a normalization deal with Israel unrealistic? Or will MBS’s compromise formula be enough to kick the issue into the long grass and finalize the normalization deal? Or will current US policy and the weight of public opinion in favour of the two-state solution finally prevail? Time will tell.
Published in the Jerusalem Post and in the Jerusalem Post online under the title: "MBS seeks US and Israeli assurances in Saudi deal amid fears of backlash" 26 August 2024:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-816309
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