Al-Sisi’s winning streak

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 8 October 2024

Egypt’s 69-year-old president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, enters the post-Nasrallah era on a high.  Not only did he succeed in pulling his nation from the brink of financial collapse earlier in the year, but he has managed to achieve a new strategic partnership with the EU and also place his country in pole position in the delicate US-led Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

The one cloud on his horizon is the devastation wrought by the Houthis on Egypt’s income from the Suez Canal. The Houthis’ continuous attacks on shipping in the south of the Red Sea has led many commercial shipping lines to avoid the Suez Canal and take the long Atlantic route to and from Asia and the Far East. In July 2024 the Suez Canal Authority posted a $2 billion loss of income, year on year.  The situation is an added incentive for Egypt to facilitate a ceasefire in Gaza as speedily as possible.           

The year started well for al-Sisi. Having won the presidential election held in December 2023 on a reported 89.6% of the vote, he was inaugurated for another term on April 2, his tenure assured until 2030.  An even longer period in office is not out of the question; it only requires Egypt’s constitution to be amended in the interim.

 When al-Sisi assumed the presidency in 2014, having ousted his Muslim Brotherhood predecessor, the Egyptian constitution mirrored that of the US – namely, the presidential term of office was four years, and no president could serve more than two terms.  In 2019 al-Sisi persuaded parliament to approve amendments to the constitution that extended the presidential term from four to six years and to prolong to 2024 his second term in office, due to end in 2022.

The two years leading up to the presidential election witnessed what has been termed the worst economic crisis in Egypt’s history.  The turn of the year 2024 marked a turn in al-Sisi’s fortunes.   The first few months saw him negotiating a succession of loans, grants and deals totaling more than $50 billion, clearing the nation’s dollar shortage and eliminating any immediate risk of default.  

The first of these deals, signed in February 2024, was with a consortium based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that agreed to pay $35 billion to develop 40,000 acres of virgin land on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast, known as Ras El Hekma, into a luxury tourist destination together with a financial center and a free zone. 

 An $8 billion bailout from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) had been on the stocks since December 2022, held up while the IMF’s onerous terms and conditions were hammered out and agreed.   In March Egypt finally signed up to it.  The deal was dependent on al-Sisi imposing a tranche of austerity measures on the nation, a revaluation of the currency, a new exchange rate regime, and fiscal policy restraint. 

Two weeks later the World Bank guaranteed additional financial support to Egypt amounting to $6 billion, while the EU signed an agreement to provide a further $8 billion.  This EU grant was widely believed to incorporate a payment for Egypt’s help in stemming the flow of illegal immigrants into Europe, a fair proportion of them Egyptians.

The deal with the EU was announced in June, during a visit to Cairo by an EU delegation led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

          Emphasizing the aim of boosting EU-Egyptian cooperation in renewable energy, trade, and security, and with not a word about illegal immigration, both sides agreed that the deal lifted the EU’s relationship with Egypt to a “strategic partnership”.  The four-year arrangement will see European money directed to support Egypt’s public finances and improve the country’s business environment.

These deals not only boost Egypt’s financial and economic situation, they amount to an endorsement of ea-Sisi’s presidency and a positive decision to ignore what many call his reckless financial mis-management and widespread human rights abuses. 

Al-Sisi’s personal standing has been further boosted by the prominent position Egypt is taking in the extended negotiations, led by the US and with the involvement of Qatar, around achieving a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict and the return of the hostages still held by Hamas. His value as an honest broker is enhanced by the balance he achieves between his strong support for the Palestinian cause while not wavering in his adherence to Egypt’s 45-year-old peace treaty with Israel. 

The extent of Egypt’s increased influence on the world stage became public early in September, when US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, waived the human rights conditions attached to US military financing of Egypt, and allowed the full amount of $1.3 billion to go through – a so far unprecedented step. 

          As regards the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, Egypt has a direct interest in Netanyahu’s recent insistence on retaining an Israeli presence in the Philadelphi corridor, the border between Egypt and Gaza.  The IDF took over the nine-mile stretch in May.  Despite numerous anti-tunnel efforts on both sides, including flooding on the Egyptian side and Israeli airstrikes, cross-border smuggling via underground routes persisted.  Al-Sisi, mindful of long-standing Egypt-Israel cooperation on security issues, would not protest too loudly at a temporary Israeli presence in the Corridor.   

Al-Sisi’s successes and enhanced status over 2024 no doubt serve to justify, in his own mind, his decision to stick with the vast prestige projects he has pursued even during the worst of times.  His government has lavished resources on grandiose infrastructure projects including the extension of the Suez Canal, a billion dollar cement factory built by the military, the Rod El Farag suspension bridge, claimed to be the largest in the world, and of course the $58 billion New Administrative Capital being constructed in the desert 30 miles east of Cairo.

Already boasting the tallest tower in Africa and the biggest cathedral in the Middle East, the city is slowly but surely coming to life.  More than 1,500 families had moved in by March; by the end of 2024 that could have risen to 10,000. Government ministries are relocating to the new city, and tens of thousands of government employees are now working there.  Parliament has started directing its meetings from the city, and banks and businesses are beginning to move their headquarters there.

Eventually, according to Khaled Abbas, chairman of the Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD), “the whole country will be managed from within the new capital.”

Despite difficult domestic issues still to be addressed, this past year has seen Egypt’s president emerge as a figure of global significance.    

Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post on-line titled: "Egyptian President Sisi is on a winning streak", 8 October 2024:
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-823621