Lebanon's future

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 19 November 2024

          No doubt Israel would ideally like to see Hezbollah completely removed as a military presence in Lebanon, and its dominance within the nation’s political life ended. Neither seems fully achievable in the present circumstances.

          Hezbollah is a significant presence within Lebanon. Its military strength and capabilities are larger and more powerful than Lebanon’s armed forces. It draws popular support from its vast network of schools, clinics, youth programs, and other social services.

          Financed partly by Iran, it is also funded by sympathetic Lebanese business interests, by the business enterprises that it runs itself, and via the financial institutions that launder the money it earns from organized criminal activities, including narcotics trafficking and counterfeiting European currency.

          Politically, also, it is a force to be reckoned with. The group has participated in Lebanese elections since 1992. It entered the cabinet for the first time in 2005 and has held seats in each Lebanese government since. The situation in which current government is an interim one, and the country lacks a president, is very largely, though not entirely, the result of Hezbollah manipulation. Although Israeli policymakers want to clip Hezbollah’s political wings, they know better than to become entangled in the arcane complexities of Lebanon’s political system.

          In any case, there is every sign that the Lebanese themselves are becoming disillusioned with Hezbollah. An Arab Barometer survey published in September found that 70% of the Lebanese population does not trust Hezbollah, and the 30% who do are almost entirely Shi’ite citizens. Only 9% of Sunnis and Druze, and just 6% of Christians have any trust in Hezbollah.

          The best that Israel can hope for in the short term is to push Hezbollah’s armed forces far enough from the border to allow the displaced Israeli families of the North to return to their homes.

          Lebanon's Litani river runs north to south through the country, then takes a sharp turn toward the Mediterranean sea. Hezbollah operates from the territory between the river and Israel’s northern border, known as the Blue Line. Varying in width between 6 and 28 km., it also houses 10,000 UNIFIL troops engaged in ineffective attempts to control an openly defiant Hezbollah.

          A word about the Blue Line: Since Lebanon never signed a peace treaty with Israel after the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, no international border separating them has ever been agreed. In 2000, however, a demarcation line was drawn by the UN to confirm Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon following the 1978 and 1982 conflicts.

          Along certain sections, UNIFIL has marked the position of the line on the ground with blue barrels – more than 270 of them – giving rise to the “Blue Line” designation.

Stretching for about 120 km. from the Mediterranean coast in the west up to the Golan Heights in the east, it has been serving as a de facto border.

         On October 30, Lebanon’s MTV website reported that intensive ceasefire talks had been taking place led by Amos Hochstein, US President Joe Biden’s special envoy to Lebanon.

As a result, the website claimed, Hezbollah had agreed to move all its weapons to north of the Litani and establish a demilitarized zone in the area south of the river.

          It also claimed that Hezbollah was no longer insisting on being directly connected to events in Gaza. The group’s late leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had insisted that Hezbollah’s assault on Israel was in support of Hamas, and that a ceasefire in Lebanon would be tied to a ceasefire in Gaza.

          Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri is reported to have insisted that the terms of UN Resolution 1701 must be the basis of any agreement: “It’s out of the question to change the wording of UN Resolution 1701 even by one word,” he said. Hochstein has been traveling between Lebanon and Israel seeking an agreement that abides by the resolution.

          Adopted unanimously in 2006, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 notably does not mention Hezbollah. It refers directly only to the two UN member states, Lebanon and Israel, maintaining the fiction that Lebanon is in a position to control rogue militias operating within its sovereign territory. In the UN’s fantasy world, the Lebanese government can order Hezbollah to stop attacking Israel and enforce its order.

          So the resolution calls for all armed groups in Lebanon to be disarmed, maintaining that the only armed force in the country must be that of the Lebanese state. As for an agreed border between Israel and Lebanon, the resolution says that ultimately it is up to the states concerned to determine its exact path but that in the interim the Blue Line must be respected. UNIFIL was charged with ensuring compliance.

          That, of course, was where the well-intentioned resolution failed. Like the Lebanese government, UNIFIL found itself impotent against the rampant Hezbollah military machine. Starting on October 8, 2023, Hezbollah started firing missiles indiscriminately into Israel. With tens of thousands of residents being evacuated from their homes, the least Israel could do was to try to deter Hezbollah by meeting fire with fire.

          At the same time, Israel began effectively weakening both Hezbollah and Hamas by eliminating its leaders, destroying its command and control centers, and depleting its manpower. Now, with the whole of Hezbollah’s senior command structure, including its long-time leader Nasrallah, removed, the organization may well be prepared to negotiate a deal.

          Hochstein must have been heartened to receive a call from president-elect Donald Trump on November 8. Israeli media, quoting a Lebanese MTV channel report, said Trump told him: “Go and finish your work and make a deal with Lebanon.”

          On November 11, the media reported that Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer had flown to the US for talks with senior White House officials regarding a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal.

Washington officials had already confirmed that there had been progress in the Hochstein-led discussions. “The chances are increasing for a settlement in Lebanon,” they told Ynet.

          Then on November 13, The Washington Post reported that Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, had been told by one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close aides that Israel is intent on finalizing a ceasefire deal in Lebanon. The idea is to provide an early foreign policy win to the president-elect as he assumes office. Two days later, sure enough, Reuters reported that the US ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, had submitted a draft truce proposal to Lebanon’s speaker Berri.

          As the saying goes: “Half a loaf is better than no bread.” If the half-loaf includes an end to Hezbollah’s missiles and its troops being removed to north of the Litani river, then it is a compromise worth accepting.

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "How will Hezbollah factor into Lebanon's future?", 19 November 2024:

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-829692

Behind the Iran-Israel conflict

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 12 November 2024 

However many charges of aggression, mass murder and worse the Iranian regime chooses to level against Israel, there is no disguising the fact that it is Iran that seeks to destroy Israel, not the other way around. 

On April 13, 2024 Iran – which essentially means the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – committed a major strategic blunder.  Israel’s audacious attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1, 2024 had taken out seven Iranian military advisers, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the élite Quds Force of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps).  Such an operation would normally have provoked Iranian ire and an armed response on northern Israel from Hezbollah.  Not on this occasion.  Instead the incident was used as the trigger for a fundamental shift in Iranian policy which has led to negative consequences for Iran. They are still to be fully worked through and may, in the final analysis, prove existential.   

  

         For 45 years – namely, since its foundation in 1979 – the Iranian regime had pursued its self-imposed mission of encompassing the destruction of Israel and its people through funding, arming and supporting organizations, groups and militias prepared to attack the Jewish state. At some point in the period leading up to April 13 Khamenei decided that the time had arrived to change tack. It must have been intense analysis and calculation by his advisers that led him to break the principle that had guided Iran’s foreign strategy for so long, and finally launch Iran’s very first direct onslaught on Israel.

  How must the figuring have gone?  “Israel has never been weaker.  It is bogged down in its war in Gaza.  It hasn’t succeeded in eliminating Hamas or recovering its remaining hostages.  It is being condemned on all sides for vast numbers of civilian deaths. Hezbollah is attacking it daily on its northern border.  Houthi missiles are getting through its defenses. It is the subject of an investigation by the International Court of Justice on a charge of genocide.  Imagine the effect of a direct Iranian attack.  Think of bombs falling on Israeli cities.  Think of Israelis in their hundreds slaughtered and injured.  Israel will be humbled.  The Abraham Accords will disintegrate, and any hope of their extension will be snuffed out.” 

Khamenei’s military advisers must have convinced him that a massive fleet of kamikaze UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) would overwhelm Israel’s defenses, and at least some 50% of the missiles would get through. The aerial assault involved hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles.  

In the event Khamenei’s anticipated military and propaganda triumph turned into a humiliation.  What Iran’s military strategists perhaps failed to take into account was the united support of Israel’s allies, and Iran's own unpopularity in the Arab world (Iranians may be Muslim, but they are not Arabs).  They surely did not count on Jordan and Saudi Arabia helping to block Iran's UAVs from reaching Israel, nor that the UK and France would join the US in backing Israel's Iron Dome in shooting down the Iranian missiles. 

Their subsequent failure was to underestimate both the chutzpah and effectiveness of Israel’s security and armed forces. Following the aerial assault of April 13, the Iranians were taken by surprise time and again. Within a week Israel had responded with airstrikes on Iranian military sites in Syria and Iran itself, while against a background of continuing tit-for-tat skirmishes, Israel pursued its hunt for the Hamas leaders responsible for the barbaric attack of October 7, and the Hezbollah leaders who supported them.

The targeted elimination of Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’s military wing, on July 13 was followed by the even more telling retribution visited on Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s political wing.  In an especial humiliation for the regime, he was killed in the heart of Iran’s capital, Tehran, by an explosion in his guesthouse, on July 31. 

Then came September 17-18, when hand-held communication devices, such as pagers and walkie-talkies, manufactured specifically for Hezbollah and distributed widely to its operatives, were detonated remotely.  At least 42 fatalities and over 3,000 injuries, the vast majority of them Hezbollah operatives, was the result.  Though Israel made no claim, the world assumed it was responsible.

Albert Einstein is reputed to have said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.”  Whatever Khamenei's thinking – perhaps he believed his first aerial assault on Israel had been under-powered – he opted for a second, bigger and more focused attempt.  He decided to use some 200 advanced Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan missiles, and to target military and intelligence locations. 

In the event this second Iranian attack, launched on October 1, was only marginally more damaging than the first. Once again most missiles were intercepted by Israeli and US defense systems, including support from US naval vessels stationed nearby. 

How and when Israel would retaliate became the subject of intense media speculation. The theorizing was temporarily suspended when Iran’s prize collaborator, the head of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, was shot dead by the IDF on October 16.

While welcoming the news as “a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world,” US President Joe Biden made it clear that he did not want Israel to target Iran’s nuclear and oil installations for fear of triggering all-out war.  

When it came, Israel’s response, delivered on October 25, respected his wish and consisted of heavy air strikes on Iranian military targets in Syria and on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. 

So Israel and Iran are undoubtedly in conflict, if not formally at war.  Anyone who cares to look into the matter can see why no truce can be meaningful. 

The objective of the Iranian regime, from its foundation in 1979, has been to acquire as much power and influence as possible in order to achieve the key objectives laid down by the regime’s original Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. He affirmed repeatedly that the very purpose of his revolution was to destroy Western-style democracy and its way of life, and to impose Shia Islam on the whole world.  He identified the United States and Israel as his prime targets, but included what was then the USSR.

“We wish to cause the corrupt roots of Zionism, Capitalism and Communism to wither throughout the world,” said Khomeini.  “We wish, as does God almighty, to destroy the systems which are based on these three foundations, and to promote the Islamic order of the Prophet.”  By this he meant his strict Shia interpretation of Islam, for elsewhere he had declared that the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, situated in the heart of Sunni Saudi Arabia, were in the hands of “a band of heretics”.

These objectives have driven the regime ever since, and continue to be its raison d’être.  

“We shall export our revolution to the whole world,” declared Khomeini. “Until the cry 'There is no god but Allah' resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle.”

In short, Iran’s leaders want to destroy the world as we know it. They want to achieve political dominance in the Middle East, overthrow Western-style democracy of which America is the prime exponent, wipe out the state of Israel, and impose Shia Islam across the globe. 

 Whether the West wishes to acknowledge it or not, in combatting Iran, Israel is fighting for the free world as a whole. 

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and in the Jerusalem Post online titled: "How Iran's attacks on Israel backfired, escalating regional conflict", 12 Nov 2024:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-828654

BRICS is no friend of Israel

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 4 November 2024

From October 22 to 24, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, as host of the 2024 BRICS summit, welcomed 36 world leaders to Russia .  This conference marked the first gathering of the BRICS group after its expansion to include, alongside the original five members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), four new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).  Other countries attended as partners or aspiring new members.  The expanded body brings together countries representing approximately 41% of the global population and 24% of the global GDP. 

BRICS aims to promote cooperation among major emerging economies and increase their economic and political influence. Its primary purpose is to provide an alternative to Western-led institutions like the G7 economic grouping.  It seeks to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade. The group's aims conform precisely to Putin’s domestic and international aspirations, which he does not seek to conceal.   At an open meeting on October 22, 2022 he said:  ““The unipolar world is being relegated into the past…The West is unable to rule humanity single-handedly, and the majority of nations no longer want to put up with this…. A future world arrangement is taking shape before our eyes.”

   BRICS is the perfect instrument for assisting Putin reach his goal.

   Given the inclusion of Iran and South Africa in its membership, the viscerally anti-Israel stance it has adopted is not, perhaps, surprising.  The summit was held in the Russian city of Kazan, so the statement issued on its conclusion is titled the Kazan Declaration. In it, the BRICS leaders devote 8 of its 35 paragraphs to denouncing Israel in one way or another.

   In paragraph 30, for example, without any reference to the horrifying events of October 7, 2023, or even one mention of the word Hamas, they express “grave concern” at the escalation of violence in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, which they ascribe to “the Israeli military offensive, which led to mass killing and injury of civilians, forced displacement and widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure.”  They call for an immediate ceasefire and the release of all hostages and detainees “from both sides”, drawing no distinction between civilians illegally seized, and people imprisoned for their crimes.

Providing no evidence to support the charge, they denounce “Israeli attacks against humanitarian operations”.  Unsurprisingly they approve of the provisional measures of the International Court of Justice in “the legal proceedings instituted by South Africa against Israel.” They call for a two-state solution based on what they term the “borders of June 1967,” and for the State of Palestine to be granted full membership in the United Nations.

In paragraph 31 the Declaration turns to Lebanon.  Here BRICS members, without once mentioning Hezbollah or making any reference to its ceaseless bombardment of northern Israel starting on October 8, 2023, “condemn the loss of civilian lives and the immense damage to civilian infrastructure resulting from attacks by Israel in residential areas in Lebanon and call for immediate cessation of military acts.”  

They move on to condemn, among other things, what they term “the premeditated terrorist act of detonating handheld communication devices in Beirut on 17 September 2024,” which, they claim, “resulted in the loss of life and injury of dozens of civilians.” They make no mention of the fact that the devices in question had been issued only to Hezbollah members and certain other VIPs like Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani.

The Kazan Declaration makes it clear that BRICS turns a blind eye toward terrorist activity aimed at eliminating Israel and its people, and has nothing but unreserved condemnation for the steps Israel takes to defend itself.

 The summit was undoubtedly a personal triumph for Putin.  Ostracized and sanctioned by the West, here he was able to straddle the world stage, host to a large gathering of global leaders.  At Kazan Putin demonstrated that he has been rehabilitated personally by a large section of the world, and that an alternative to Western dominance is a real possibility. The topics discussed included how emerging economies could cooperate more fully across a variety of fields. In addition it set the ball rolling on one of Putin’s pet projects – a new international payments system that would undercut the dominance of the US dollar.

The magazine Newsweek believes that the overarching ambition of BRICS leaders such as Putin and China's President XI Jinping is to accelerate and bolster the shift away from America as the sole superpower, and toward a multipolar world that counterbalances the US and its Western allies.

It points out that the Russian economy has managed to readjust following the sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  It has done so with the help of its key partner China, aided also by Iranian weapons supplied for use in Ukraine. Putin is now seeking to expand trade with India through a strategic partnership, particularly in the areas of energy resources and defense.

“These partnerships,” says Newsweek, “are Putin's multipolar vision in practice, undermining the US-led West's ability to exercise its power and enforce its desired global norms through sanctions and other economic and diplomatic levers at its disposal.”  His overall aim is to dismantle the US-led transatlantic and global order so that Russia can exercise greater power regionally and internationally

Allied to the bid by BRICS for economic, financial and political independence from the West is a rejection of the principle, staunchly upheld by the US and most of the free world, that Israel has the right to defend itself against the genocidal and illegal terrorism of Iran and its axis of evil.  In fact, with Iran and South Africa as leading members, it is doubtful if BRICS as an organization regards Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Iranian-supported militias in Iraq and Syria as terrorist bodies at all. It is this myopia that underlies its root and branch condemnation of Israel.

  However Israel need not submit to being blackened and isolated.  A closer look at the list of BRICS members reveals the presence of  Abraham Accord partner, the UAE, while hovering in the wings, invited to join but as yet uncertain, is Saudi Arabia.  Other countries enjoying good relations with Israel, such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Belarus, are also possible new members.  Putin himself has a nuanced attitude toward Israel – a position that could be affected by the result of the forthcoming US presidential election. 

Self-interest could well override any demand by Iran, South Africa or Turkey (another possible new member) for a permanent anti-Israel stance.

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "BRICS is no friend of Israel amid Putin's strategic vision", 4 November2024:

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-827388

Published in Eurasia Review titled: "BRICS suits Putin but is no friend of Israel", 8 Nov 2024:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/08112024-brics-suits-putin-but-is-no-friend-of-israel-oped/

Published in the MPC Journal, 13 Nov 2024:

https://mpc-journal.org/brics-suits-putin-but-it-is-no-friend-of-israel/