Speaking to reporters at Fort Bragg military base in North Carolina on February 13, US President Donald Trump said, unambiguously for the first time perhaps, that regime change in Iran is "the best thing that could happen".
Ever
since late January the US administration has been building up a massive naval
and military presence in the region, nominally to pressure Iran over its
nuclear program, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and internal repression.
Trump has consistently tied the US military build-up to his insistence that
Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons.
In his remarks at Fort Bragg Trump declined to specify whom he wanted to take over in Iran, but noted "there are people" who could. One such, of course, is the late Shah’s son and heir, Reza Pahlavi, who has acquired significant support both within the country and among the Iranian diaspora as a potential future leader.
At the inaugural meeting of Gaza’s
Board of Peace on February 19, Trump said that if the regime did not accept
stricter limits “within days,” unspecified but “very bad” consequences might
follow. The latest round of US-Iranian negotiations
in Geneva ended on February 26.
Unsatisfied with Iran’s delaying tactics, Trump ordered a military
strike on the morning of February 28.
Speaking via his Truth Social
medium, Trump was crystal clear about one major objective of the joint
US-Israeli attack. Addressing the
Iranian people direct, he said:
“For many years, you have asked
for America’s help. But you never got it. No president was willing to do what I
am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you
want. So let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming
strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your
destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within
your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
Trump has no plan for large‑scale US ground
involvement or occupation. He
anticipates an internal uprising that would topple the government. It is not an impossible scenario. With the Iranian economy on life support, and
the regime struggling to contain prolonged and persistent anti-government demonstrations, targeted military action by the US could cause the Islamic theocratic
dictatorship to implode.
On February 25 AOL, the American web portal formerly known as “America Online,” published an article which stated “…the US has reportedly drawn up a target list of key regime stalwarts, such as the Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his son, to be eliminated as part of a decapitation strategy aimed at achieving regime change in Tehran.” This objective was achieved in the first strike on February 28.
The Iranian people, having endured
nearly five decades of despotic rule, have made it abundantly plain over the
past month or more that the sooner they see the back of the ayatollahs, the
better. However, the fall of the Iranian
regime would have repercussions well beyond Iran – many of them highly
desirable.
For example, the widespread network
of terrorist groups created and sustained by the Islamic Republic would suddenly find themselves without the financial and
logistical support that has sustained their jihadist activities for
decades.
Shiite Hezbollah, a creature of
the Iranian regime, would be critically weakened by its demise. The Houthis’ ability to act at sea and
against distant targets is very largely dependent on Iranian military supplies. Sunni Hamas could look to Qatar and perhaps
Turkey for some degree of support, but without Iran at its back could it withstand
Trump’s demand that it disarms and dismantles its terrorist infrastructure?
Wider afield, Russia and China,
which have forged trade and military partnerships with Iran in recent years,
would see their global standing seriously diminished.
Iran has been supporting Vladimir
Putin’s war effort in Ukraine by providing constant supplies of drones and ballistic missiles. The sudden
loss of this flow of vital ordnance would undoubtedly weaken Putin’s military
capabilities in Ukraine and could hasten some sort of ceasefire.
China would also feel the pinch,
since 90% of Iran’s discounted oil exports go to Beijing. A sudden loss of cheap Iranian oil would have a significant effect on China’s economy. Moreover, bearing in mind the 2021 Iran-China partnership
pact, any leadership change in Tehran could have a negative impact on China’s strategically
ambitious world-wide Belt and Road initiative, already signed by some 150
countries.
The first and only serious attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime occurred just eighteen months after the February 1979 Islamic revolution. In September 1980 the Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, fearing that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s revolutionary Shia Islamism would destabilize Iraq’s Sunni‑dominated Ba’athist regime, invaded.
He hoped that a quick attack into Iran’s oil‑rich province of Khuzestan would trigger internal unrest and possibly a collapse of the new Islamic Republic.
A range of Western and Arab
states, including the US, the UK, France, and Gulf monarchies, provided him
with significant military, economic, and diplomatic support. Iran’s revolutionary regime was seen by them as
a greater threat to stability and Western oil interests than Saddam’s Iraq. History had a different story to tell.
By mid‑1982 Iran had reversed
Iraq’s initial gains, and for the next five years Iraq was largely on the
defensive. A series of successful Iraqi
offensives in 1988, however, diminished Iran's hope for victory and induced a
change of heart. In August 1988 both sides accepted a UN-brokered ceasefire and
truce.
This time has Iran’s revolutionary
regime reached the end of the road? On February 28 Pahlavi issued his own video
message to the Iranian people:
“In these sensitive hours and
days, more than ever we must remain focused on our ultimate goal: reclaiming
Iran…Stay alert and ready to return to the streets for the final action at the
appropriate time, which I shall communicate to you. Follow my messages through
social media… We are very close to final victory. I hope to be with you as soon
as possible, so that together we may reclaim Iran and rebuild it.”
Will the dream eventually become
reality?
Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "What follows the fall of Iran? A look at the widespread repercussions", March 4, 2026:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-888758
