At the moment Iran is
suffering the effects of a drought described as the worst in 50 years. According to the Iranian Department of Water
and Sewerage, at least 110 Iranian cities have been struggling with cuts in
water supplies during the summer of 2021. The crisis has devastated agriculture and
livestock farming, and led to electricity blackouts. The root cause of
the water and power failures, according to protesters, is long-standing government
inefficiency and corruption rather than the drought.
They point to the worst-affected area – the oil-rich province of Khuzestan in the south-west of the country. Here the drought has only exacerbated problems faced by Khuzestan for decades. The province is home to a large Arab minority who have repeatedly complained of being left behind by the Iranian regime. Khuzestan residents maintain on social media that the province has never truly had drinkable tap water, and that they have had to buy their water or take it from the rivers, many of which have now dried up. Lawyers have said that Khuzestan’s problem stems from the illegal theft of water from river forks in the region. Power outages have exacerbated the crisis, since many people use electricity-powered pumps to get water inside their homes.
Khuzestan is where most
of the public outbursts of anger have occurred, but protests at the
government’s apparent inability to deal with the situation have broken out
across the nation including the capital, Tehran. The heavy-handed action of the security
forces has often converted these demonstrations into riots resulting in at
least eight deaths, according to Amnesty International..
“Video footage verified
by Amnesty,” the organization reports, “… and consistent accounts from the
ground, indicate security forces used deadly automatic weapons, shotguns with
inherently indiscriminate ammunition, and tear gas to disperse protesters.”
Despite state-imposed internet
restrictions, numerous videos have come out of Khuzestan in which gunshots can
be heard and tear gas seen in use. In some videos protesters are shouting at baton-wielding
security forces clad in black, riding motorcycles.
There are many occasions
in the recent past when public protest in Iran has moved past the immediate
cause of complaint into a general attack on the government. In 2009 the patently manipulated re-election
of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iranian president gave rise to an upsurge of popular
anger. Iranians took to the streets in
their millions in what came to be known as the "Green Movement" condemning
the government for election fraud, and demanding the removal of Ahmadinejad and
the holding of new elections.
Iran was in turmoil
again in January 2018. At first the nationwide rallies centered on the
ever-rising food and commodity prices. This soon morphed into opposition to the
regime in general and the Supreme Leader in particular. Especial dissent was voiced against the vast
sums expended in the Syrian civil conflict, and Iran’s military and logistical
support for Hezbollah in Syria, for the Houthis in Yemen and for Hamas in
Gaza. The cost of these foreign
adventures was seen as being at the direct expense of the Iranian
population.
In 2019, nationwide anti-government
demonstrations followed an abrupt tripling of petrol prices. Amnesty
International said at least 208 people were killed during those protests
The effect of then-President
Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal in May 2020, and further US sanctions,
was a further blow to the economy. The effect on normal household budgets was
catastrophic. On June 25 Tehran’s grand bazaar was shut down as merchants
joined street protests, and thousands defied the riot police trying to quell
the rebellion. Other big cities joined Tehran.
Protesters carried all manner of slogans. Some called for the Supreme
Leader to resign, some chanted "Death to the liars" and some called
for the IRGC, the all-powerful Guard Corps, to leave the country. The worst, from the Supreme Leader’s point of
view, were the prominently displayed signs: “Death to the dictator.”
Opposition to the
government has hardened during the current water crisis. Nostalgic chants of support for the previous
Shah, on the lines of “Reza Shah, bless his soul” have been reported from
a variety of public protests. Camera-caught
videos, by their nature unverifiable, have been making their appearance on
social media. One is said to show demonstrators
in the town of Aligudarz chanting slogans against Khamenei. A short video posted on Twitter by New
York Times journalist Farnaz Fassihi showed people at a Tehran metro
station chanting "Death to the Islamic Republic"; another showed women
chanting "Down with the Islamic Republic".
This evidence of a
popular groundswell of anti-regime sentiment seems to have shaken the
leadership. They must have decided to
try to placate the populace. On July 22, outgoing President Hassan Rouhani went
on television not to condemn the protests, but to assert that Iranians have
“the right to speak, express themselves, protest and even take to the streets,
within the framework of the regulations”.
The next day Supreme Leader Khamenei reiterated that message.
“The people showed their
displeasure,” said Khamenei to state media, “but we cannot really blame the
people, and their issues must be taken care of.” He assured the nation that: “Now,
thank God, all the various agencies, governmental and non-governmental, are
working [to resolve the water crisis]”.
Both messages must have
been delivered through gritted teeth.
The Iranian regime has been severely shaken by a combination of adverse circumstances including economic breakdown resulting from the US sanctions, mounting popular dissatisfaction with the government’s foreign and domestic policies, the Covid pandemic, and now water shortages exacerbated by severe drought. Popular sentiment in favour of an end to the regime and even a restoration of the monarchy is growing. Where will it all end?
Published in the MPC Journal:
Published in the Jewish Business News:
https://jewishbusinessnews.com/2021/07/30/irans-water-crisis-threatens-the-regime/
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