Published in the Jerusalem Post, 5 September 2023
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The last two weeks of August saw southern Syria
rocked by popular anti-government protests, including a strike by many
shops demonstrating against constant increases in the price of basic goods.
Starting as widespread demands
for economic reform, the mass demonstrations soon morphed into calls for the removal
of President Bashar al-Assad and the overthrow of his regime.
On August 28 protesters
gathered in the southern city of Sweida, home to much of the country’s Druze
minority. Video shared by Sweida24, a news and media website, showed several
hundred people gathered in a central square waving Druze flags and chanting slogans,
including “down with Bashar al-Assad.”
The protests were
triggered by the government's decision on August 16 to cut fuel subsidies, but the
major underlying factor was the non-stop decline in the value of the
Syrian pound (or lira) that has been imposing an ever-increasing financial
burden on household budgets. The Syrian
pound has been declining throughout the summer, hitting a succession of historic
lows. It finally achieved a threefold depreciation on its late-2022 valuation, converting
on the black market – always a premium on the official rate – at 15,000 to the
dollar. In March 2011, just after the
Arab Spring protests began in Syria, the exchange rate was 47 Syrian pounds to
the dollar.
UN statistics reveal
that at least 90 per cent of Syrians live in poverty, and over 60 per cent of
the population struggle to secure their daily food needs. With international
sanctions imposed on the government, and Syria’s main oil fields controlled by
US-backed Kurdish forces, the whole population is subject to frequent and
prolonged power cuts, which have obviously contributed to the growing
frustration.
Throughout the political,
military and humanitarian turmoil of the past decade, Assad has received
consistent support from certain areas in Syria – for example the Mediterranean
coastal region around Latakia, the ancestral homeland of the minority Alawite
sect to which Assad himself belongs. But
now the dissent has spread even there. In
a rare act of defiance, Alawite protesters recently closed down branches of the
Baath party, expelled government officials, and tore down posters of Assad.
And yet, despite a clearly deteriorating situation, media reports indicate that government security forces have been instructed to lie low, while to date the government itself has issued no official statements about the mushrooming protests. One explanation is that, in order to avoid prejudicing his recent return to the Arab League, Assad may be exercising an uncharacteristic restraint. He doubtless has in mind that he was expelled in 2011 for the ruthlessness he exhibited when clamping down on Arab Spring anti-government protests. He would not relish history repeating itself in that regard.
Assad rejoins Arab League, May 2023
He probably believes
that, sustained by Iran and Russia and the Arab family of nations, his grip on power is unshakable and that he
can outride the storm of protest. But the situation is fluid, and an unexpected
development is always possible.
On August 28 The New Arab, a pan-Arab news website working
out of London, reported that a new opposition group calling itself "The
10th of August Movement" has been launched in Syria, and that many of
its founders and supporters are drawn from Assad’s Alawite sect. The organization, while proclaiming that it
supports peaceful, non-sectarian resistance, nevertheless calls for the
ousting of the Assad regime.
The new body, which says
it has thousands of members within regime-held areas, asserts that it is a new
type of Syrian opposition, having learned from the violent aftermath of the
2011 Syrian uprising. That ruthless
defense of the Assad regime, they remember, included the use of chemical
weapons against groups of Syrians actively opposed to the government, plus
horrific collateral death and injury to innocent civilians.
Although the 10th of August Movement is in its infancy, it has laid out a structured plan for achieving its revolutionary objective. It claims that in less than a month it has spread right across Syria, encompassing a wide range of sects and ethnicities, and it professes to have a "cell" in every city in Syrian regime territory. The New Arab reports that it has started to make inroads among the army and the country's security services. Members of different security branches, the news site claims, frustrated with the economic and political situation, are reaching out to the movement to offer their support.
The new organization has
links with at least five other underground opposition groups across Syria. Like
them, it will have to contend with the huge security apparatus that sustains
Assad’s regime. Syrians are regularly
arrested for posting on social media or voicing anti-government opinions. The government
has not publicly acknowledged the existence of the 10th of August Movement, but
on August 21 the Syrian news medium, Enab Baladi, reported a wave
of arrests in Latakia and other areas once considered loyal to the regime, targeting
members of the movement.
The launch of the Movement
was accompanied by a statement demanding, among other things, that the
government raise the minimum wage to at least $100 a month; provide electricity
for at least 20 hours a day (the current average is three in most areas); and
release some 136,000 political prisoners.
These are practical
measures that could relieve the hardship currently being endured by those
living in Assad-ruled Syria. But the
movement has a far more fundamental aim – a hopeful future for all Syrians. Given the lessons of history, and the chaos
Assad has inflicted on the country, the 10th of August Movement concludes that this
can be achieved only by waving farewell to Bashar al-Assad and his regime.
Published in the Jerusalem Post, 5 September 2023, and in the Jerusalem Post on-line under the title: "Practical measures could relieve the hardship of Assad-ruled Syria":
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-757579
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