Published in the Jerusalem Post, 27 December 2023
In his much-trumpeted speech on November 3, Lebanon’s Hezbollah
leader, Hassan Nasrallah, predictably praised Hamas’s October 7 invasion of
Israel, the subsequent massacre of 1200 civilians and the abduction of some 240
hostages. However he was at pains to
emphasize that it had been a purely Palestinian enterprise. He asserted,
whatever the truth of the matter, that neither Iran nor Hezbollah had had any
part in planning or carrying out the operation, and that in present
circumstances neither found it expedient to support Hamas by opening full-scale
hostilities against Israel. He wanted the subsequent conflict to remain
Palestinian.
Even so, changing circumstances could trigger an escalation of
the fighting to encompass Israel’s northern border. The initiative could come from Iran. An unequivocal defeat of Hamas, known to be
funded and equipped by Iran, could be the trigger. Israel could not be
seen to glory in victory over Iran's proxy, so the baton could be passed to
Hezbollah to continue the conflict.
It might come from Nasrallah.
If Hamas was about to be destroyed, he might feel that Hezbollah could
be the next target, and move to launch a full-scale pre-emptive attack on
Israel. Britain’s prestigious Royal Institute of International Affairs,
otherwise known as Chatham House, in a recent wide-ranging survey of the
prospects of an Israel-Hezbollah war, believes so. It maintains that the closer Israel gets to
defeating Hamas, the more likely it is that Nasrallah will widen the war.
It points out that he heads an army of more than 100,000 battle-hardened
fighters equipped with thousands of missiles, rockets, and armed drones that
can hit targets deep inside Israel with pinpoint accuracy.
. Incidentally, provided the Iranian
ayatollahs are able to continue fighting Israel by way of their Hezbollah
proxy, they are unlikely to grieve overmuch at the destruction of Hamas. Although happy to use Hamas, to fund, equip
and support it, Iran must always have regarded it as expendable. Hamas is a Sunni organization. The ultimate ambition of Iran’s Islamic
Revolution is to impose the Shi’ite tradition of Islam across the whole
world. Unlike Shi’ite Hezbollah, Hamas
could never form part of Iran’s Shia Crescent.
It would eventually have been cast aside.
Meanwhile, with Iran’s connivance, the Shi’ite Houthis have ramped
up their attacks against shipping in the Red Sea, while the cross-border armed
exchanges between Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been
increasing in number and ferocity. There
are incidents on a daily basis.
Throughout December 24, for example, air raid sirens were
sounding south of the Lebanon border in Avivim, Margaliot, Yiron, Shlomi, and
the border Bedouin village of Arab al-Aramshe.
The IDF attacked the source of rockets launched towards Avivim, and
bombed Hezbollah infrastructure with a tank near Kibbutz Yiron.
There were also alerts in Sasa, Matat, and Dovev following a
suspected enemy drone infiltration and rocket attack. Several rockets were also fired from Lebanon
at the Keren Naftali peak in the Galilee Panhandle. The IDF said it shelled the source of the
fire with artillery, and attacked the source of Hezbollah fire and a cell of
Hezbollah operatives close to the border near Shtula in the Western Galilee.
And so it goes on, day after day, while the toll in fatalities
and casualties mounts. Seven Israeli
soldiers and four civilians have been killed since October 7, as have 121
Hezbollah fighters and 10 Lebanese civilians.
Chatham House has pointed out that the initiative for a full-scale escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is not restricted to Hezbollah or Iran. It could also come from the Israeli side. It asserted that there are those in the Israeli government, including certain ministers, who see an opportunity in the present situation to neutralize the threat to Israel’s northern front once and for all. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet reached that conclusion, said Chatham House, implying that it is not beyond possibility. If ministers threatened to resign over this issue, for example, he might change his mind in order to maintain the integrity of his government.
Chatham House is not alone.
In early November the media were reporting concern in Washington about
Israel’s intentions on its northern border. The worries may have been
accelerated by the mass evacuations of Israeli towns and villages within easy
striking distance of the Lebanon border.
Almost certainly undertaken by Israel to pre-empt any possible Hezbollah
invasion on the lines of Hamas’s murderous incursion of October 7, suspicious
minds in Washington may have seen in it preparations by Israel for a second
front.
Under the headline: “Scoop”, the on-line news media Axios reported on November 12 that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had phoned his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, the previous day to urge restraint in the escalating tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border. According to Axios there was growing anxiety in the White House that Israeli military action in Lebanon could lead to a regional war.
Moreover, according to Chatham House, the White House believes
some senior officers in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) believe that a war in
the north is inevitable. It is the possibility
of a pre-emptive Israeli strike, leading to a forceful Hezbollah response, that
concerns Washington, since the US would inevitably be drawn into such a
conflict. The last thing US President Joe Biden wants during re-election season
is a war between Israel and Hezbollah that could lead the US into a direct
confrontation with Iran.
So the US is intent on avoiding all-out war between Israel and
Hezbollah. In an attempt to deter Hezbollah from launching deadlier attacks
against northern Israel, Biden has ordered the deployment of a substantial
amount of additional military assets to the Middle East, including an aircraft
carrier, warships, a nuclear-powered vessel, attack helicopters, fighter jets,
and 5,000 sailors.
Is an Israel-Hezbollah
war possible? Certainly. Is it inevitable? Surely not.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-779648
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