Published in the Jerusalem Post, 1 July 2024
.jpg)
Ever since October 7, egged on by Iran, Hezbollah has been escalating its cross-border clashes with Israel, while its leader Hassan Nasrallah has been stepping up his blood-curdling rhetoric, predicting Armageddon if Israel were to launch all-out war. Yet the truth is that Iran-Hezbollah would like nothing better. They have sound strategic reasons for not initiating formal armed conflict. So their tactic has been to ramp up the provocation, daring Israel to strike back and trigger war.
Iran learned a lesson from its
abortive attempt at overwhelming Israel’s defenses on April 13. In its first-ever direct aerial assault, it
sent some 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic
missiles the 1,000 kilometers toward Israel. The Iranian leadership
no doubt expected a massive military and propaganda triumph.
In the
event the operation was a miserable failure. To
supplement Israel’s Iron Dome defense, America and Britain sent jet fighters to
help shoot down the missiles. At the same time Jordan refused to
allow Iran to use its air space for the operation, while several Gulf States,
among them Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, passed on intelligence
about Iran's plans. As a result about 99% of the aerial armada never
reached Israel, and Iran learned that not only the West, but much of the Middle
East disliked and distrusted it.
Fearing wholesale lack
of support if any formal Hezbollah-Israel conflict were seen as
Iran-instigated, Iran-Hezbollah has, in the words of the English poet,
Alexander Pope, been “willing to wound and yet afraid to strike.”
On June 18 the Israel Defense Forces
announced that a plan for an offensive to push Hezbollah further back from the
border had been approved, but that a diplomatic solution was still the
preferred option. The next day Nasrallah
gave a televised address lasting more than an hour.
In previous wars with Israel, he said, Hezbollah
had only hoped to be able to strike Israel’s Meron air base. Now, he claimed, the whole of Israel was within
its range.
"And it won’t be
random bombardment,” he threatened. “Every drone will have a target. Every
missile will have a target."
Boasting that Hezbollah
had a large stockpile of drones, a “surplus of fighters” and unspecified “new
weapons” that would be unveiled in due course, he said Hezbollah was manufacturing
military weaponry in Lebanon and, despite Israel’s attacks on weapon-carrying
convoys in Syria, had continued to receive weapons from Iran.
This, at least, was confirmed by the UK’s Daily Telegraph which, on June 23, reported that weapons are being flown from Iran into Lebanon and stored at Beirut’s main airport.
The report claimed that
currently the cache of stored weapons includes Iranian-made Falaq unguided
artillery rockets, Fateh-110 short-range missiles, road-mobile ballistic
missiles and M-600 missiles with ranges of 150 to 200 miles. Also at the
airport it is claimed that there are AT-14 Kornets, laser-guided anti-tank
guided missiles (ATGM), huge quantities of Burkan short-range ballistic
missiles and explosive RDX, a toxic white powder also known as cyclonite or
hexogen.
The allegations will
raise fears within Lebanon that, in the event of war, the Rafic Hariri airport,
just four miles from the city center, could become a major military target.
Staff at the airport claim that Wafiq Safa, Hezbollah’s second in command and the head of its security apparatus, has become a notoriously conspicuous figure at the airport.
“Wafiq Safa is always
showing up at customs,” one whistleblower claimed. Workers collaborating with
Hezbollah, he says, “walk around like peacocks” with new watches and
smartphones, and drive new cars. “A lot of money [is] being passed under the
table.”
Ghassan Hasbani, the
former deputy prime minister and an MP for the Lebanese Forces party, said
Hezbollah’s control of the airport has long been a concern for Lebanon, and
more so if it becomes a potential military target in a conflict with Israel.
“Weapons being transported from Iran to
Hezbollah across border entry points,” he said, ”…endangers both the Lebanese
population and the non Lebanese travelling through and living in the country.”
Taking action, he said, is
all but impossible without international intervention to implement relevant UN
resolutions. “The entrenchment of Hezbollah is everywhere, not only in the
airport but in the port, the judiciary, it’s across society. The public
administration now is largely hijacked by Hezbollah…”
Ali Hamieh, Lebanon’s transport minister, said the allegations were “ridiculous” and invited journalists and ambassadors to view the airport.
Hamieh, who was nominated to the government by Hezbollah, in fact exemplifies the straits to which the once independent sovereign state of Lebanon has been reduced. Hezbollah has acquired an iron grip on the levers of power and, in the process, reduced the nation to penury and political deadlock.
Lebanon has been without
a president since October 2022, every possible nominee blocked by Hezbollah and
its political allies. Moreover,
compounded by widespread government corruption, the country is experiencing the
worst financial crisis in its history. After prime minister Najib Mikati announced in
March 2020 that Lebanon would default on its Eurobond debt, the Lebanese
currency began to plummet, leading to hyperinflation. In April 2023, Lebanese
inflation hit a high at almost 270%.
It has taken a year to bring the level down to something like 52%, which
still means unsustainable price increases for ordinary citizens, many of whom
have become virtual paupers.
A further destabilizing
factor is the huge refugee burden imposed on the country by the civil conflict
in Syria. Lebanon maintains one of the
largest refugee populations per capita in the world – more than 1.5 million,
many of them Syrian.
Yet Lebanon, overwhelmed as it is with domestic problems, is faced with the prospect of being dragged into Iran-Hezbollah’s ideological conflict with Israel, and potentially suffer bombardment, destruction, casualties and deaths. The people of Lebanon resented their sons being recruited by Hezbollah and sent to Syria to support its president, Basha al-Assad, in his fight against his democratic opponents. How much more would they oppose a call by Nasrallah to take up arms against Israel. Which is why Nasrallah refrains from taking the decisive step, and would much prefer to point to Israel as the instigator of conflict.
Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "Iran is playing a proxy war with Hezbollah, Lebanese civilians will pay the price", 1 July 2024
No comments:
Post a Comment