Published in the Jerusalem Post, 24 February 2025
Aoun, beset by intense internal political pressure, simply ignored the US’s wishes. The very next day Lebanon’s prime minister, Nawaf Salam, announced a 24-member cabinet that indeed includes representatives from the political alliance known as the “Shia duo” – that is Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement. Together, they have secured four ministerial portfolios in the new government, and are negotiating for a potential fifth.
According to the terms of the
November 2024 Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire agreement, the IDF was required to have
withdrawn completely from southern Lebanon by January 26. But by then Hezbollah forces were to have
moved out of the region between the Litani river and the so-called Blue Line –
that is, the boundary between Lebanon and Israel. – and been replaced by the
Lebanese army.
Achieving this desirable state of
affairs, an objective first set out in UN Resolution 1701 back in 2006, has
been frustrated for nearly 20 years by a combination of Hezbollah’s growing
dominance within Lebanon, and the weakness of successive Lebanese governments
in countering it. In the event Hezbollah continued to operate in the region,
maintaining weapons stockpiles and military infrastructure.
Now, while the Lebanese army has
made significant strides in deploying south of the Litani, it seems clear that
Hezbollah has still not fully withdrawn from the area. It was this that led Israel
to request an extension to the agreed withdrawal deadline.
The ceasefire agreement is
overseen by a supervisory committee under the chairmanship of the US,
additionally comprised of representatives from the UK, France and Germany. This committee is responsible for monitoring
compliance and assisting in the enforcement of the agreement's terms.
Acceding to Israel’s request, the
committee agreed to extend the IDF withdrawal deadline to February 18. A few days before the 18th, in view of
Hezbollah’s continued military presence south of the Litani, Israel asked to
remain in five posts in the south for a further 10 days. Shortly afterward, Israel’s public
broadcaster KAN reported that the US, without specifying a new deadline, had
granted Israeli troops permission to stay "in several locations" in
Lebanon beyond February 18.
Meanwhile it seems that France’s primary concern is to ensure that Israeli forces quit Lebanon as soon as possible. On February 13 French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot announced a proposal that would involve UN peacekeepers replacing Israeli forces at key points in order to ensure that the IDF leaves Lebanon by the deadline.
"It is now up to us,” said
Barrrot, “ to convince the Israelis that this solution is likely to allow a
complete and final withdrawal."
Unfortunately Israel’s confidence in the UN’s
peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) is at a low ebb after 47 years of its total
inability to control Hezbollah. Israel
cannot endorse a situation which leaves Hezbollah forces still controlling
areas of south Lebanon, and in a position to recommence its bombardment of
northern Israel. This would simply
perpetuate the situation that brought Israeli forces over the border in the
first place.
It is bad
enough that Hezbollah has reasserted its political power within Lebanon’s
government, but it is demanding a return to its blatant and malign
control over Beirut’s Rafic Hariri airport. For a long period Hezbollah
personnel treated the airport like a private domain. The organization
was accused of having operatives embedded within airport security and
customs, allowing them to oversee and control the movement of goods and
personnel. Ignoring continual allegations of corruption and
security risks, Hezbollah was able to smuggle weapons, drugs, and
cash through the airport at will, bypassing official customs inspections.
Hezbollah is in desperate need of
Iranian weapons to restock its depleted military supplies. On February 14 Israel informed the Lebanese
government that Iran was about to dispatch a civil aircraft to Beirut loaded
with military equipment and weaponry. In
an effort to assert its authority, the Lebanese government barred that flight
from landing in Beirut, Iran and in addition imposed a ban on the import of Iranian military
equipment and supplies.
In response, in an overt challenge
to the government, Hezbollah began organizing scenes of public disorder in
Beirut. On February 15 Reuters reported
that the Lebanese army used tear gas to disperse Hezbollah supporters
protesting at Beirut airport.
In response to the blocked flight,
Iran barred Lebanese planes from repatriating citizens stranded in Iran,
escalating tensions between the two countries. Iranian officials have called for constructive
talks with Lebanon to resolve the situation, while also condemning alleged
Israeli threats against an Iranian passenger plane as violations of
international law.
While Hezbollah retains significant
military and political power in Lebanon, as it appears to do, any formal return
to their homes by the dispersed inhabitants of the Israel-Lebanon border region
stays on hold. In December 2024 the
Israeli government extended the evacuation period for the approximately 60,000 northern
residents by an additional three months, pushing the potential return date to
March.
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in
December 2024 led to some cautious optimism among the citizens of the north,
and some, particularly from communities like Kibbutz Manara and Kibbutz Metula
made the return journey. Unfortunately,
many found their properties extensively damaged or destroyed. Some reconstruction has started, but it is
expected to take years and cost a great deal.
Rebuilding Kibbutz Manara alone is estimated to cost at least NIS 150
million (approximately $40 million)
Many of the evacuated families,
fearing a renewal of the violence, are reluctant to return. Surveys indicate
that nearly half of the displaced families are reluctant to go back under
current circumstances.
With the fears and concerns of the
displaced inhabitants of the north in mind, Israel is certainly right to
exercise the utmost caution before deciding it is safe to leave
Lebanon for good.
Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "Israel is right to be cautious about Lebanon withdrawal", 24 February 2025:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-843417
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