Tony Blair and the Palestinian issue

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 8 September 2025

On August 27 US President Donald Trump summoned a tight-knit group of advisers to the White House to discuss a comprehensive post-war strategy for Gaza.  Under consideration would be humanitarian aid, governance alternatives to Hamas, and how to facilitate Gaza’s reconstruction.

 Among those invited were Vice-President J D Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Israeli minister Ron Dermer and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.  Eyebrows were raised in political circles across the world when it was revealed that also among those present was Britain’s former prime minister, Sir Tony Blair.

His presence should not have come as such a surprise.   Blair has been closely involved with the Israel-Palestin​ian issue for a quarter of a century.  ​Following an overwhelming electoral victory​ in 1997, he became ​Britain's prime minister​.  In 2000 he offered the UK’s unequivocal support to then-US President Bill Clinton in his efforts to achieve an Israel-Palestinian peace deal at the Camp David Summit.

In 2002 he supported the Roadmap for Peace produced by the Middle East Quartet. The Quartet – comprising the UN, US, EU, and Russia – was set up to coordinate international efforts to achieve Israel–Palestinian peace.  The Roadmap it promoted, proposing a three-phased transition to normalization between Israel and the Arab world, incorporated the establishment of a sovereign, viable, and contiguous Palestinian state alongside Israel.

On the very day that Blair resigned the UK premiership – 27 June 2007 – he was appointed Quartet Representative for the Middle East peace process.  The White House announced that both Israel and the Palestinians had signed up to his appointment.  His mandate was to help the Palestinian Authority (PA) prepare for eventual statehood by establishing the means to run an administration, strengthen the Palestinian economy, and foster a climate of law and order.

He occupied that position for the next eight years, and it is generally held that he did his best. He supported the “state-building plan” of the then-Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, and helped secure donor funding and foreign investment in the West Bank, leading to periods of up to 9% economic growth over 2008–2011. 

He backed infrastructure projects (roads, electricity, water, industrial parks) and supported reforms of Palestinian security forces.  Even so there is no denying that, taken overall, his achievements were underwhelming.  Events were not on his side. ​When he took on the post​, it was only twelve days ​since Hamas, following a brief but violent conflict with Fatah forces, had seized control of the Gaza Strip.  The immediate result was to split the Palestinian people in two, with 2 million living in Gaza. and 3.5 million or more in the West Bank. It also created a political divide between the Gaza Strip, controlled by Hamas, and the West Bank, controlled by the Palestinian Authority under Fatah.  

It was a long time before Blair was able to make meaningful contact with Hamas, but he did play a behind-the-scenes role during the Gaza conflicts of 2012 and 2014, contributing with Egyptian support to ceasefire arrangements between Israel and Hamas.

Despite his best efforts, Blair was of course unable to effect any sort of reconciliation between the unyielding rejectionism of Hamas and the opportunist approach of Fatah.  PA president Mahmoud Abbas, following the strategy initiated by his predecessor Yasser Arafat, continued promoting the idea of a two-state solution to world opinion, while covertly intending to use it as a first step toward overthrowing Israel and eventually taking over the whole of Mandate Palestine.  

The Fatah constitution states as much, although it is rarely if ever referred to by Abbas or other Palestinian leaders in speeches in English: “Palestine is an Arab land, the land of the Palestinian Arab people… Palestine, with its boundaries that existed at the time of the British Mandate, is an indivisible territorial unit…The Palestinian Arab people have a legitimate right to their homeland and have the right to determine their destiny after the liberation of their homeland.”  These founding principles of the Fatah organization leave no room for a two state solution.

Blair, of course, is himself utterly sincere in his belief that a resolution of the interminable dispute is entirely dependent on achieving a sovereign state of Palestine alongside Israel.  But he s​lowly became aware of what the so-called “Palestinian cause” truly was, and now his eyes are fully open.  In an interview with StandTallWithIsrael.com on August 20, Blair said:

“Acceptance both culturally and not just formally of the state of Israel means that the two peoples can live side by side with some sense of equity…True peace can never be achieved through formal agreements alone — it requires a cultural shift, a mutual acceptance of Israel's right to exist, and a transformation within Palestinian leadership and society.”

It was way back in December 2016 that Blair founded the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI).  Globalization is an inevitable process brought about by technological advances, economic interdependence, and the increasing movement of people and information across borders.   TBI’s purpose is to help “countries, their people, and their governments to address some of the most difficult challenges in today’s world.”

Starting with seed funding of some $9 million and a staff of about 221, TBI has developed into the “McKinsey for world leaders,” advising numerous governments on policy, governance, climate, extremism, and technology use.  Today, with a staff of around 1000 and revenues in the region of $150 million, it is operating in more than 45 countries.

A poll commissioned by TBI around July and August 2024 found that only about 7% of Palestinians in Gaza said they wanted Hamas to govern the Strip immediately after the war. Most overwhelmingly preferred a new governance structure.

In a conference in London in October 2024, Blair quoted the results of the poll as he emphasized the urgency of ending the conflict to pave the way for a future that offers security for Israel and self-governance for the population of Gaza.   What is needed, he said, are “intensive diplomatic efforts to create the conditions that will bring the war to an end in a way that provides Israel with the security it needs, and Palestinians in Gaza with a different and better future.” 

Tony Blair is a fresh and positive presence on the scene.  His experience of the Middle East as a whole, and the Israel-Palestinian issue in particular, is unrivalled.  He is totally convinced that mutual recognition and cultural change are prerequisites for true peace and stability in the region, with change in Gaza being pivotal for progress on all fronts.  His will be a voice of moderation and reason in future Trump-led deliberations.

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "Tony Blair:  a fresh and positive presence on the Palestinian issue", 8 September, 2025:

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-866617