No one could call Nagorno-Karabakh the centre of the civilized world. It is a small chunk of land in a remote region in the southern Caucuses, flanked on one side by Armenia and on the other by Azerbaijan. Both, though at one time within the orbit of the Soviet Union, are now small independent states. Yet a long-simmering tussle between them over ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh has suddenly flared into open conflict, and the world and his wife are busily involving themselves in the dispute.
The US, Russia, France,
Turkey, Iran – all now have their fingers in the pie, converting a little local
difficulty into a world-wide diplomatic war-game. The US and Russia have tried, though with
little success, to enhance their global image by brokering a ceasefire; Turkey
and Iran seem intent on boosting their regional influence by stoking the flames
of conflict. France appears to be using
this situation as a proxy for other weightier concerns, and declares
unequivocally that it supports Christian Armenia in opposition to Turkey’s
equally unequivocal support for Muslim Azerbaijan.
Up in its extreme north,
Iran has a border with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Following stray fire from
the fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran has deployed troops of its IRGC
(Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) across the border region. Its mission,
spokesmen declared, was "to protect national interests and maintain peace
and security". Iran’s national
interests are tied to the fact that approximately one-third of its 84
million population are Azerbaijani Turks.
They have not been silent during the recent upsurge. Waves of protests have broken out in various
cities across Iran, including the capital Tehran, orchestrated by dissidents objecting to Russian military aid getting
to Armenia with Iran’s help, and demanding that the border with Armenia be
closed. This issue has rapidly become
one more among the many causes of popular protest within Iran.
Officially Iran recognizes Azerbaijan’s claims to the disputed territories, but for decades it has maintained good relations with Armenia. During the conflict it has been helping president Armen Sarkissian by transferring Russian military equipment across Iran and into Armenia. When this became known, Iran hastened to deny the story, despite confirmatory video footage.
Turkey’s involvement in
the conflict stems from a long-standing relationship with Azerbaijan. Turkey was the first nation to recognize
Azerbaijan's independence in 1991. Former Azeri president Heydar Aliyev once
described the two as "one nation with two states". Even though Turkey has no border with
Azerbaijan, and the two countries are separated from each other by Armenia, they
share a Turkish culture.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has backed his vocal support for Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev with military equipment including drones, and also extremist mercenaries recruited in Syria. With Turkey’s help, Azerbaijan has slowly pushed Armenian forces back and seems to have gained the upper hand in the conflict.
Erdogan undoubtedly sees
the dispute as an opportunity to strengthen his position in the Middle East generally,
and in particular in the Islamist world.
Even though Shi’ite Muslims predominate in the capital Baku, it is to
the Sunnis , who comprise more than 80 percent of Azerbaijan’s population, that
he makes his pitch. Even so, he has an
uphill struggle. Azerbaijan has been
designated one of the most secular of Muslim states – indeed, tolerance and
respect for religious diversity are built into its constitution. This runs counter to the whole tenor of
Erdogan’s domestic strategy, which has been to turn back the clock on the
secularization and religious tolerance of the founder of modern Turkey, Kemal
Ataturk.
Secularization is at the
heart of Erdogan’s latest well-publicized spat with French president Emmanuel
Macron, with whom he has a multi-faceted dispute. In recent weeks France
has supported Greece and Cyprus against Turkish claims to explore for oil and
gas in the Mediterranean. France and
Turkey are also at odds over the power struggle in Libya, backing opposing
sides in the dispute. More recently
still, Erdogan denounced Macron’s wholesale condemnation of the beheading of a
teacher in France by an Islamist extremist who objected to children being shown
cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad.
Utterly rejecting any justification for the act, Macron declared war on
“Islamist separatism” which, he said, was taking over some Muslim communities
in France in defiance of the secularization that is at the heart of the French
constitution.
Erdogan denounced not only Macron, but the whole French state, as
Islamophobic. Despite being separated by
the Shia-Sunni divide, Erdogan’s charge was echoed by the Iranian regime, as
was his call for a boycott of French goods, a move later supported by Qatar and
Kuwait. The exchange descended into
personal abuse when Erdogan suggested that Macron needed “a mental health
check-up”, a classic case, perhaps, of the pot calling the kettle black. His intemperate reaction may well have
triggered the latest terrorist outrage in France, when three people were
murdered in a Nice church.
The Erdogan-Macron antagonism displays itself to the full over
the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, where the two leaders are at loggerheads. Erdogan
has declared that Turkey is "fully ready" to help Azerbaijan recover
the enclave, while Macron has announced: "I say to Armenia and to the
Armenians, France will play its role."
No doubt Macron has in mind the fact that hundreds of thousands of
French citizens are of Armenian descent.
Nagorno-Karabakh has become a convenient setting for some major world powers to act out their differences or pursue their broader interests. When and how Armenia and Azerbaijan finally resolve their dispute may have consequences far beyond the narrow confines of the Caucuses.
Published in the Eurasia Review, 30 October 2020:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/30102020-nagorno-karabakh-why-are-big-powers-so-interested-in-a-small-local-conflict-oped/
Published in the Jewish Business News, 30 October 2020:
Jewishbusinessnews.com/2020/10/30/why-are-big-powers-so-interested-in-a-small-local-conflict/
Published in The Times of Israel, 5 November 2020:
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/why-are-big-powers-so-interested-in-a-small-local-conflict/
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