This article appears in the Jerusalem Post of 7 April 2022
The good news is that a two-month truce between the warring parties in Yemen, brokered by the UN, went into effect on April 2. At last there is some hope of relieving the humanitarian disaster that has overwhelmed the Yemeni people. The issues that led to the conflict, however, remain unresolved.
The bad news, from
Lebanon’s point of view, is that the truce will do nothing to solve the
political dilemma facing Lebanon, caught as it is between a rock and a hard
place. Its weak and vacillating
government finds itself trapped between two warring and irreconcilable forces,
Iran and Saudi Arabia – the one supporting the Houthis in Yemen, the other
battling to defeat them.
Lebanon’s situation is
exacerbated by the dire state of its economy. The Lebanese lira has lost more
than 90 per cent of its pre-crisis value, and this has led to soaring inflation
and widespread hardship. It is estimated that some 80 per cent of Lebanon’s
population now live in poverty. Gasoline stations have run dry, medicine and many
basic foods are in short supply, and critical social infrastructure is shutting
down.
In 2008 the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) boosted the Lebanese economy with a massive
loan. In 2020, in the face of a financial system spiralling out of control, the
government again appealed to the IMF for help.
A rescue plan was approved by the majority parties in parliament. Then a parliamentary committee, supported by
the Banque du Liban and the other Lebanese banks, advocated a diametrically
opposite approach, on the grounds that it was defending the interests of
depositors. It was clear to the IMF that administrative reforms were
needed before necessary economic measures could be implemented.
It is against this
background that Lebanon’s political dilemma is being played out. Iran-backed
Hezbollah is so entrenched in the country’s institutions that it would require
close to a revolution to dislodge it. Moreover, the nation’s ruling cliques
have been infiltrated by Hezbollah and its allies. Lebanon’s current difficulties stem from comments
made by Information Minister George Kordahi in October 2021, criticizing Saudi
Arabia’s role in the conflict in Yemen.
In 2011 Yemen’s
president, Ali Abdallah Saleh, a victim of the so-called Arab Spring, gave up
the keys of office with a very bad grace.
He allied himself with his erstwhile enemies, the Houthis, in an attempt
to maneuver his way back to power. Supported with military hardware from Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards, the Houthis overran large tracts of the country,
including the capital city, Sanaa.
Saudi Arabia, determined
to prevent Iran from extending its footprint into the Arabian peninsula,
intervened in March 2015 to help beat them back. Saudi’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman,
assembled a coalition of Arab states, obtained the diplomatic backing of the
US, UK, Turkey and Pakistan, and launched a series of air strikes against the
rebels. Civilian casualties were high, and Yemen degenerated into a
humanitarian disaster area. Seven years
later both parties remain entrenched in various parts of Yemen.
Appearing on an Al
Jazeera TV show on October 25, 2021, Kordahi was asked his views of the war in
Yemen. Mirroring the Iranian point of
view, he said the Houthi rebels fighting the Saudi-led coalition were acting in
self-defence. “They are defending themselves against external attacks launched
for years against Yemen."
In subsequent media
conferences Kordahi refused to apologize.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states were outraged. Saudi expelled
Lebanon’s ambassador and said it was ending all imports from the country. The
UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain followed suit and recalled their ambassadors. George Kordahi resigned.
Saudi Arabia and its
fellow wealthy neighbors once spent billions of dollars in aid in Lebanon, and
still host a huge Lebanese diaspora. But the friendship has been strained for
years by the growing influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The powerful Iranian-backed Shia movement,
which has come to dominate Lebanon‘s political
and economic establishment, represents a vital building block in Iran’s
bid to dominate the region. Hezbollah and its allies are integrated into the
ruling elites, which are mired in venality, corruption and
self-interest. Arab News warned recently that their
unwillingness to put Lebanon's interests ahead of their own could destroy the
nation.
A major issue uniting
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states is their determination to thwart Iran’s effort
to undermine and overturn Sunni Muslim states, acquire a nuclear arsenal and
dominate the Middle East. In this they
are at one with Israel, which is also the object of Iran’s visceral hatred. The Abraham Accords, which may yet be
expanded, is a sign of their common purpose.
Despite Iran’s strong influence within Lebanon through its proxy, Hezbollah, ministers have tried hard to mend fences with Saudi and the Gulf. Very recently a green shoot has surfaced. On March 19 Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati visited Doha Forum in Qatar, met the Emir, Sheikh Tamim al-Thani, and discussed ties between Lebanon and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
In a press conference later
Mikati said: “Lebanon is meant to always have excellent relations with the Arab
countries and the Gulf states. Lebanon is one of the founders of the Arab
League and we strongly believe in such ties.”
Speaking about Lebanon’s
diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, Mikati stressed: “It
was a summer cloud that passed. God willing, it will entirely fade out with the
visits that I will make to the Arab countries, and with the restoration of
diplomatic ties between Lebanon and the Gulf states. We need these ties, especially
with Saudi Arabia.”
On March 22 the Saudi
ministry welcomed Mikati’s statement, and said it hoped it would “contribute to
the restoration of Lebanon’s role and status on the Arab and international
levels.”
It was a first step, but
the way out of the forest for Lebanon is likely to be long and difficult.
Published in the Jerusalem Post, 7 April 2022:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-703436
https://www.eurasiareview.com/09042022-lebanons-dilemma-oped/
Published in Jewish Business News, 8 April 2022:
https://jewishbusinessnews.com/2022/04/08/lebanons-dilemma/
Published in the MPC Journal, 9 April 2022:
https://mpc-journal.org/lebanons-dilemma/
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