This article appears in the Jerusalem Post, 29 April 2022
Lebanon is preparing to go to the polls on May
15. Many observers believe that this parliamentary election promises to be one
of the most significant in the country’s modern history (“crucial” and
“decisive” are among the terms used).
Three vital issues hang on the result.
First, Lebanon’s failing economy depends on the
radical reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) being enacted
before their essential financial package is put in place. Nothing can be done
until the new government is up and running.
Secondly, President Michel Aoun’s term of office has ended, and the new
parliament will have the task of electing and confirming his successor in
office. Thirdly, and perhaps most
critical of all, this election campaign has produced a significant weight of
anti-Hezbollah political feeling among a number of disparate political
groups. Given a modicum of leadership,
they could be brought together to reduce the baleful influence of the
Iran-supported extremist group once and for all
The elections come as
Lebanon’s currency has lost more than 90 percent of its value in the past two
years, plunging more than half of the 6 million Lebanese population into poverty. The economic crisis was aggravated by the
massive explosion at Beirut Port on August 4, 2020, when a large part of the
capital was destroyed, more than 200 people killed, thousands injured, 300,000
people left homeless and billions of dollars in material damage was caused. Responsibility
is yet to be determined, as powerful figures linked to Hezbollah do their best
to frustrate the public Inquiry.
The World Bank has described Lebanon’s financial and economic crisis as among the worst in the world in 150 years. The IMF requires, among other measures, that the Lebanese government approve a restructuring of the banking system that takes account of the large losses in the sector, while protecting small depositors and limiting their recourse to public resources.
Lebanon's
political and financial elite have been at odds over such a plan for two years,
particularly on how to distribute some $70 billion of losses between banks, the
state, and depositors. Lebanon's banking
sector maintains that the government and central bank should bear the lion's
share of losses. Goldman Sachs has said
the most challenging reform would be the restructuring of the local banks, “The
distribution of losses between the government, bank shareholders and depositors
is…unlikely to be resolved easily." All the same resolved it will have to be after
the election, if Lebanon is to be assisted by the IMF to regain a degree of
financial stability.
Since his return to Lebanon in 2005 from France, where he lived in exile for 14 years, President Michel Aoun, aided by his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, both allied with Hezbollah, has been a destabilizing force in Lebanese politics. In 2016 Hezbollah’s support for Aoun’s presidential bid was the primary factor leading to his election.
Once in office Aoun allowed,
if he did not positively encourage, Bassil to engage in lucrative patronage
activities. In addition the president and his son-in-law have been trying to
ensure that Bassil succeeds Aoun in office. These aspirations were dealt a
severe blow in November 2020 when the US sanctioned Bassil, accusing him of
being at the forefront of corruption. Nonetheless Bassil is trying to lead his
party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), to victory in the parliamentary
elections, and no doubt hopes to capture the presidency if he does. At least he
is a Maronite Christian, an essential prerequisite for holding that office.
Modern Lebanon, founded in 1944, was established on the basis of an
agreed "National Pact".
Political power is allocated on a religious or "confessional"
system, with seats in the parliament allocated 50-50 as between Muslims and
Christians. The top three positions in the state are allocated so that the President
is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker
of the Parliament a Shia Muslim.
Theoretically no system
could seem more designed to satisfy all parties in a multi-sectarian society. Theory, however, has had to bow to
practical reality. Lebanon has been
highly unstable for much of its existence, and its unique constitution has
tended to exacerbate, rather than eliminate, sectarian conflict.
Hezbollah’s many opponents
from within both Christian and Muslim parties accuse the Iran-supported
organization of running a mini-state within Lebanon, disregarding the nation’s
sovereignty. They are treating these elections as an opportunity to end what
they see as its domination of the country’s political decision-making and
Iran’s occupation of Lebanon through its powerful proxy.
As a result, two
opposing camps are jockeying to gain the majority in the next parliament: the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party and
its allies, who are determined to challenge Hezbollah’s influence and its
dominance of the country’s administration; and Hezbollah and its supporters,
who will fight to retain the majority they currently hold in parliament, and counter
efforts to normalize ties with Israel.
Earlier this year, Fares Souaid, an outspoken critic of Hezbollah, established what he termed “a national council for ending Iranian occupation” of Lebanon. The council includes Muslim and Christian politicians, academics and key figures of civil society opposed to Hezbollah’s influence.
Samir Geagea, leader of
the Lebanese Forces party, which has the second largest Christian bloc in Parliament
and is an arch enemy of Hezbollah, is campaigning with the outright aim of wresting
the country’s sovereignty from Hezbollah’s clutches. Geagea hopes to overturn
the majority won in the last election by the pro-Hezbollah group, which includes
the Free Patriotic Movement founded by Aoun, and the Amal Movement led by parliamentary
Speaker, Nabih Berri. Geagea argues that
a solution to the economic crisis begins with defeating Hezbollah, which he
blames – with some reason – for Lebanon ‘s economic collapse.
This parliamentary
election offers the Lebanese people a real chance to cast off the dead weight
of the past, regain its sovereignty under a new president, and implement the
reforms that will enable the IMF to sign off on a financial package designed to
revitalize the country’s economy. It is
all up to them.
Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online, 29 April 2022:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-705384
Published in Eurasia Review
https://www.eurasiareview.com/30042022-lebanons-make-or-break-election-oped/
Published in the MPC Journal:
https://mpc-journal.org/lebanons-make-or-break-election/
Published in Jewish Business News:
https://jewishbusinessnews.com/2022/04/29/lebanons-make-or-break-election/
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