Various media reports
are suggesting that the Jordanian government is intent on urging Israeli
Arabs to vote in the November elections, the aim being to keep Benjamin
Netanyahu from returning to power. In particular, Jordan is said to
have held unofficial talks with Muslim Brotherhood leaders recently, in an
attempt to dissuade Raed Salah from boycotting the elections, as the northern
branch of the Islamic Movement has historically done.
Raed Salah, a
Palestinian citizen of Israel and former head of the northern Islamic Movement,
is a prominent religious and political figure who was arrested first in 2017
and then again in 2020. Although charged with *incitement to terror”,
eight of the original twelve charges against him were dropped, and his sentence
of 28 months imprisonment took into account the 11 months he had been detained
awaiting trial. He was released from Megiddo prison in December 2021.
A former
mayor of Umm al-Fahm, the popular 64-year-old Salah is known as “Sheikh
al-Aqsa” – a title acquired when he was arrested during a demonstration
protesting at the installation of metal detectors at the outer gates of the
Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, following an attack there.
On August
18 the controversial Middle East Eye, the London-based online news
outlet, reported a well-placed, but anonymous, source claiming that Jordanian
authorities had been trying to engage with Raed Salah through the Muslim
Brotherhood, hoping to persuade him to urge his supporters to participate in
the November Israeli elections, or at least not encourage them to boycott them.
This story was partially
confirmed by Jordanian journalist Bassam Badarin, who reported some weeks ago
in the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper that he had
been asked by Jordanian officials about the best way to make contact with
Salah. Recently, virtually confirming that the parties had been in touch,
Badarin wrote that the main focus of the unofficial talks had been to find ways
to increase voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel in the November
vote.
"Jordan's
interest,” Badarin is reported as saying, “is similar to that of Lapid and
Washington, who do not want to see Netanyahu back in power, since he represents
a return to Trump's 'deal of the century,' which was rejected by Jordan.”
However Raed Salah’s
media office moved quickly to quash the story. "There is no truth to the
media reports that talk about communication between Jordan and Sheikh Raed
Salah,” it announced. ”Our position is clear in support of the boycott of the
Israeli Knesset elections."
There is a certain logic in assuming that Jordan’s King Abdullah would prefer to see Yair Lapid returned to government as Israel’s next prime minister, heading a coalition supported by Raam (the United Arab List) but also by other Israeli-Arab parties.
The Joint List was
formed shortly before the 2015 elections, combining candidates from three Arab
parties and the veteran Israeli party, Hadash. The list won 13 seats on that
occasion, 13 in the 2019 election, and 15 in 2020. It was prior to the 2021 elections that Raam
left the alliance, secured four seats and became part of the coalition
government. The Joint List won six and
joined the opposition. Jordan may consider
its interests are best served by disengaging what remains of the Joint List
from its association with Israel’s right-wing coalition.
Few would object if the
Jordanians simply choose to encourage Israeli Arabs to vote in the forthcoming
elections. However anything which
smacked of urging them to vote for a particular party would certainly be deemed
unacceptable interference in Israel’s democratic process. It is this aspect of the media reports about
Jordan’s recent involvement that is most disturbing.
Yet scraps of evidence in
the media do seem to point in that direction. Zaki Bani Irsheed, the former general
secretary of the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, is quoted
as saying recent Jordanian actions stem from the desire to "stop
Netanyahu from returning to power." He was referring to a recent visit to Jordan
by Khaled Meshaal, head of Hamas's diaspora office. Jordanian officials and Muslim Brotherhood
representatives insisted that Meshaal's rare visit was purely personal. However, a Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson
said this visit was different from previous personal ones in that he "was
allowed to meet with Jordanian political and media personalities".
There are also reports
that Jordan has sought to communicate with Mansour Abbas, leader of Raam
and deputy head of the southern chapter of the Islamic movement. One commentator asserted "Mansour was
recently a guest of King Abdullah twice. One was an official visit, but the
other meeting was not announced."
In short, Amman seems engaged in an effort to reconcile the remaining Joint List with Raam and the southern Islamic branch. Bringing Raed Salah on side seems a lost cause, but regardless of that Jordan may be hoping to ensure that a joint Arab political effort in the forthcoming elections is directed towards tilting the political balance away from Netanyahu, Likud and the Israeli right, and in favour of Yair Lapid and whatever coalition he can muster. If a united Joint List supporting Lapid managed to achieve 15 Knesset seats as in 2020, anything might be possible.
Published in the Jerusalem Post, 30 August 2022, and in the Jerusalem Post on-line under the title "What does Jordan have to do with Israel's November elections?":
No comments:
Post a Comment