Gaza's future

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 10 March 2025

         The Arab League held a summit in Cairo on March 4 with the sole intention of considering a comprehensive plan for Gaza’s future, master-minded by Egypt.  Costed at some $53bn, it focuses in a 112-page document on emergency relief, rebuilding shattered infrastructure and long-term economic development.  The conference endorsed the plan, as far as it went.  The later stages will require more detailed consideration.                      

It was on February 4 that US President Donald Trump announced his proposal to turn the Gaza Strip into a US-run “Riviera of the Middle East”, having first evacuated the population to any nearby Arab states willing to accept a total of some 2 million people. 

The Arab world, as well as much of the rest of the globe, greeted the idea with a mixture of astonishment and ridicule.  Some commentators, claiming to know Trump’s methods, maintained that he had deliberately used shock tactics to goad the Arab world into playing a more active role in considering Gaza’s future and how to achieve it.

If this was indeed the method in Trump’s madness, it produced results.  A couple of weeks later, on February 17, news media worldwide reported that Egypt was preparing an alternative to Trump’s proposal in which evacuating the territory and relocating the Gazan population would play no part.

In the event the Egyptian proposal called for establishing “secure areas” within Gaza, where Palestinians can live temporarily while Egyptian and international construction firms reconstitute the Strip’s infrastructure.  More than two dozen Egyptian and international firms would take part, and the reconstruction would provide tens of thousands of jobs for Gaza’s population.

Winding up the summit on March 4 Egypt’s President Abdel el-Sisi welcomed “the consensus among the Arab countries to support the reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip, which allows the Palestinian people to stay on their land without displacement.”

In a social media post after the conference, Sisi said he looked forward to working with Trump, other Arab nations and the international community “to adopt a plan that aims for a comprehensive and just settlement of the Palestinian Issue, ends the root causes of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, guarantees the security and stability of the peoples of the region and establishes the Palestinian State.”

The Egyptian plan outlines a three-phase process taking five years, starting with a six-month "early recovery period" involving the establishment of "safe zones".  Some 1.5 million displaced Gazans would be moved into 200,000 prefabricated housing units and 60,000 repaired homes. This stage is estimated to cost some $3bn

The second phase, lasting two years and costing $20bn, would see housing and utilities rebuilt.  During the third phase, which would take another two years, an airport, two seaports and an industrial zone would be built at a cost of $30bn.

As for the Strip’s governance, a key aspect of this plan is the establishment of a temporary Governance Assistance Mission from which Hamas would be excluded.  This interim body would oversee humanitarian aid and initiate reconstruction efforts until a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) can assume control. Despite this exclusion, Hamas has publicly welcomed the Egyptian plan as signaling strong Arab alignment with the Palestinian cause.

Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit said the summit’s final communique calls on the UN Security Council to deploy an international peacekeeping force in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.  In addition, the communique said Egypt will host an international conference in cooperation with the UN to agree on Gaza’s reconstruction.

Funding will probably require investment from oil-rich Gulf governments including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. A trust fund, overseen by the World Bank, will be established to handle pledges and donor-provided funds.

A final stage, still open for Arab discussion and refinement, would start the process of creating a sovereign Palestinian state.  Establishing inter-connectivity between the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip would be an early priority.  In tackling this conundrum the planners need look no further than Trump’s own comprehensive plan, "Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People", issued on 28 January 2020.

The result of years of intensive diplomatic effort by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, the plan envisaged the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank, excluding the settlements, plus a Gaza greatly expanded by a swath of Israeli territory south of the Strip.  All Palestinian occupied territories would be made contiguous by way of a network of highways and a road tunnel linking the West Bank to Gaza.  The published plan contained maps illustrating how all enclaves of a sovereign Palestine could be inter-connected.

Trump’s plan was no sooner unveiled than it was vehemently rejected by Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and other voices in the Arab world.  But not universally.  Significantly, both Saudi Arabia and Egypt seemed prepared to give the plan a fair hearing.

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: "Egypt recognizes the importance of considering the US administration's initiative from the perspective of the importance of achieving the resolution of the Palestinian issue, thus restoring to the Palestinian people their full legitimate rights…”

            Egypt’s new plan for Gaza’s future, while carrying the whole-hearted approval of the Arab League, has not fared so well in US and Israeli circles.  The AP news agency reported that White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes has dismissed the Egyptian proposal as unworkable.

“The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable,” said Hughes on March 4, “and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance. President Trump stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas. We look forward to further talks to bring peace and prosperity to the region.”

A spokesperson for Israel’s foreign ministry, Oren Marmorstein, posted on X that the Egyptian plan “fails to address the realities of the situation”. The plan, he said, remains “rooted in outdated perspectives.”

Nevertheless Egypt’s plan garnered backing from the UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, who attended the Arab summit. 

“I welcome and strongly endorse the Arab-led initiative to mobilize support for Gaza’s reconstruction,” he said. “The UN stands ready to fully cooperate in this endeavor.”

Initial knee-jerk reactions by US and Israeli spokesmen to the Arab-endorsed plan may yet be modified, especially as the White House announced on March 5 that the US was engaged in direct talks with Hamas.  The door is open for discussion and negotiation.

Published in the Jerusalem Post and in Jerusalem Post online titled:"Egypt or Donald Trump - whose plan for Gaza's future is better?"
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-845461

Implementing Phase Two

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 3 March 2025

 Will the Gaza ceasefire deal survive its first phase? That was the unanswerable question hanging over the formal end of phase one on March 2 and the scheduled start of phase two.

Some commentators believe that Israel simply wants to extend phase one for the time being. They point out that, under the terms of the agreement, Israel was supposed to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor – the strip of land on the Gaza side of the border with Egypt – on the last day of the first phase and complete their evacuation within eight days. But on February 27 an Israeli official told the media that to prevent weapons smuggling, the IDF will be remaining in position.

That decision may have been in reaction to an announcement by Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem on February 18. He suddenly declared that Hamas was interested in speeding up the hostage release process – but in return for a major concession.

Hamas, he said, had submitted a new proposal to the mediators offering to release all the remaining hostages in phase two. The quid pro quo, said Qassem, would be for Israel to agree to an immediate permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, including the Philadelphi Corridor.

This “offer” would place Hamas in a much stronger position to secure its long-term intention of remaining the ruling power in Gaza.

On February 19, Rami Igra, former head of the Mossad’s Prisoners and Missing Persons Division, warned in a radio interview that Hamas is seeking to establish a Hezbollah-style rule in Gaza. Using the PA as a front, Hamas aims to retain effective control; to be, in effect, “the power behind the throne.

By infiltrating the government in Lebanon, Hezbollah was able to build itself into a formidable power bloc, rivaling the state itself and its institutions.

“They want to continue ruling Gaza,” said Igra. “They will do everything to make that happen.”

Israel is unlikely to be wooed into a premature withdrawal from Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said repeatedly that the IDF will not evacuate the Strip completely until it is clear that Hamas’s military and political capabilities have been so degraded that it can no longer rearm or govern Gaza.

The mediators – the US, Egypt, and Qatar – will soon have to grapple with the problem of how Gaza is to be governed when the war ends – and get both sides to agree about it.
There is no support from the Arab world for Hamas to stay in control. Some Arab states wish to see neither Hamas nor the PA controlling a post-war Gaza; some Arab commentators have favored a role for a perhaps reformed PA.

Trump’s proposal for the US to take over the Gaza Strip and evacuate the population generated instant rejection from the Arab world. In reaction, some Arab nations initiated substantive discussions aimed at developing a comprehensive plan for Gaza’s future governance and reconstruction, but based on upholding the rights of the Gazan population. Some speculate that it was Trump’s intention from the start to goad the Arab world into considering Gaza’s future and how to achieve it.

It is significant that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio seems far from wedded to Trump’s vision of Gaza’s future. On February 13, he said on an American radio show “If the Arab countries have a better plan, then that’s great.”

On February 20, Saudi Arabia hosted a summit in Riyadh, bringing together leaders from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Its primary purpose was to consider Egypt’s counter-proposal to Trump’s suggested solution.

After intensive diplomatic activity, Egypt presented a comprehensive three-phase reconstruction plan for Gaza, and has apparently garnered support from European nations, including France and Germany, as well as regional Arab countries. It favors the creation of “secure areas” within Gaza to house displaced residents temporarily as essential infrastructure is rebuilt.

A significant aspect of the proposal is the establishment of a new Palestinian administration in Gaza, distinct from both Hamas and the current PA, to oversee the reconstruction efforts. A police force composed of former PA officers would be established. Egypt’s plan maintains that Hamas has agreed to a governance structure that excludes its participation. Financial backing for the reconstruction, estimated at $53 billion, is expected to come from the oil-rich Gulf states.

Some, but not all, of the proposals in Egypt’s plan received instant endorsement from the conference participants. The leaders reached a consensus on the necessity of sidelining Hamas, but some apparently favored reinstating the authority of the PA in Gaza during the reconstruction phase.

A follow-up summit, scheduled for March 4 in Cairo, is aimed at finalizing a unified Arab plan for Gaza’s reconstruction, crucially reaffirming opposition to any forced displacement of its population.

Since Egypt, along with Qatar and the US, is acting as a mediator in the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the Gaza ceasefire deal, the Arab “day after” plan being constructed under Egypt’s leadership will probably be put to both sides in due course.
How Israel will react is far from clear. During a joint press conference with Rubio on February 16, Netanyahu said: “We have a shared strategy, which cannot always be detailed to the public – including when the gates of hell will open. And they will open if all our hostages are not returned, every last one of them.”

Two days later, following a meeting of Israel’s Security Council, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told reporters: “We need a total demilitarization of Gaza and no presence of the Palestinian Authority.”

So it seems clear that, as part of phase two, if it eventually comes into effect, Israel will be demanding the release of all hostages in addition to the dismantling of the Hamas military and, possibly, the expulsion of the Hamas leadership from Gaza. Only then would Israel consider withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor.

Hamas is not likely to accept these demands. However, while keeping its true long-term aims under wraps, Hamas might go along with the Egyptian proposals, especially if they emerge as a unified Arab plan.

All in all, the auguries for a successful outcome to phase two – even if negotiations get under way – are not good.

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "The challenges of implementing phase two of ceasefire, hostage deal", 3 March 2025:

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-844364

Published in Eurasia Review, 7 March 2025:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/07032025-implementing-phase-two-oped/ 

Published in the MPC Journal,

https://mpc-journal.org/implementing-phase-two/