Monday, 13 October 2025

Palestinian leadership post-Gaza war

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 13 October 2025

          Whether Trump’s peace plan for Gaza is implemented partially or fully, the end-game is in sight. However we reach the final outcome, paragraphs 9 and 10 of his 20-point plan will shortly come into play. To quote:

          “9.  Gaza will be governed under a temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for day-to-day services and municipalities. This committee will include qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight by a new international “Board of Peace,” chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members (including former Prime Minister Tony Blair) to be announced.

 “10.  This “Board of Peace” will set the framework, handle funding, and supervise Gaza’s redevelopment until the Palestinian Authority completes its reform program and can safely assume control.”

In short, no matter how hostilities end, the Board of Peace will be seeking suitable Palestinian candidates to fill the “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” that will provide Gaza with its temporary transitional governance.  At the same time, suitable Palestinians will be required to people the reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) that will eventually “assume control”.  A successor to its president, 89-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, could possibly be installed, or at least announced.

Where are these prospective Palestinian leaders of the future, untainted by Hamas or other jihadist philosophies or by a rejectionist past?

One name forces itself to the front of the list – Mohammed Dahlan.  Now based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), he is widely regarded by Western and Israeli commentators as a potential post-war leader.

His credibility is boosted by the fact that he is a native Gazan, born in 1961 in the Khan Yunis refugee camp.  As a teenager Dahlan helped set up the Fatah Youth Movement, known as the Fatah Hawks. In his twenties he was arrested more than once by the Israeli authorities for political activism, but never for terrorist activities. He put his time in Israeli prisons to good use by learning Hebrew, which he speaks fluently.

In the early 1990s Dahlan was reliably reported to have helped in the negotiations leading to the Oslo Accords.  The first Accord, signed  in 1993, was violently opposed by Hamas, which severed relations with Yasser Arafat as a result.  Arafat chose Dahlan to head the Preventive Security Force in Gaza.  Israel and the US​ supported and closely cooperated with ​him in his new role​, particularly in countering Hamas.  Building up a force of 20,000 men, he became so powerful that the Strip was nicknamed "Dahlanistan". 

In 2001 Dahlan began condemning corruption in the PA and calling for reform.  The 2006 Palestinian elections saw Hamas gain a majority in Gaza.  Dahlan called their election victory a disaster, and denounced Hamas as “a bunch of murderers and thieves”. Six months later Hamas staged a bloody coup in Gaza, seized power and expelled those Fatah officials it had not murdered. Years later it was revealed that Dahlan played a key role in an abortive US plot to remove Hamas from power.

In October 2007 the Bush administration reportedly pressured Abbas to appoint Dahlan as his deputy.  Ever since then  Abbas regarded him as a dangerous rival.  In June 2011 he charged Dahlan with financial corruption and murder, going so far as to accuse him of killing the late leader, Yasser Arafat.  In 2011 Dahlan was expelled from Fatah.  French investigators in 2015 concluded that Arafat died of natural causes.

 Settling in the UAE, Dahlan became a close advisor to Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), then Crown Prince, now UAE president.

  Though never officially acknowledged, Dahlan is believed to have played a behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the normalization of relations between the UAE and Israel, resulting in the Abraham Accords in September 2020. 

The most plausible figure after Dahlan is 73-year-old Salam Fayyad, the former Palestinian prime minister.  Widely viewed as a technocratic, Western-friendly administrator, Fayyad, first as finance minister and then as prime minister of the PA, built up a reputation as a financial and administrative reformer. 

Significantly, during Tony Blair’s time as special representative of the Quartet for Middle East Peace, he worked closely with Blair on economic development and institution building in Palestinian territories.  In particular they collaborated on what was known as the Fayyad Plan, a roadmap to statehood.  Blair, a member of Trump’s Board of Peace, would no doubt support Fayyad as a candidate for the technocratic committee which it is to oversee.

Another potential candidate is Mohammad Mustafa, the prominent Palestinian politician and economist appointed PA prime minister in March 2024.  Widely viewed as a technocratic reformer, his career has been marked by high-profile international experience and economic leadership including 15 years at the World Bank Group in Washington, and senior advisory roles for the governments of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. 

A further possible figure is 79-year-old Hanan Ashrawi, the veteran PA diplomat.  In December 2020, she resigned from the Executive Committee of the PLO, citing the marginalization of women and young people in Palestinian leadership.

Less involved in formal political office than she used to be, she remains very active as a public activist and advocate, pushing for reform and accountability.

Two other possibilities are Hussein al-Sheikh, currently serving as the PLO’s Secretary-General, and Majed Faraj, the chief of PA intelligence.  Western circles typically regard al-Sheikh as a pragmatic speaker, deeply involved in diplomatic engagement and security coordination. Faraj is viewed as a leader in Palestinian efforts to counter terrorism and maintain West Bank stability. He regularly collaborates with Israeli and US intelligence, and his agency has thwarted numerous planned attacks.  Although both men have historical connections to Fatah armed activity, they are generally regarded in Western official circles as valuable security and political interlocutors.

With the sole exception of Dahlan, none of these names appears on the list of leaders most favored by the Palestinian public.  According to the latest poll, Palestinians overwhelmingly support 66-year-old Marwan Barghouti as their leader of choice.

Arrested by Israel in April 2002 during the second Intifada, he was convicted in 2004 on five counts of murder and attempted murder, and sentenced to five life sentences plus an additional 40 years. He will not be included in the return of some 2000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees under the Trump ceasefire arrangements.

Others ranking high are Khaled Mashaal – Hamas through and through – and, more feasible as a future leader, Mustafa Barghouti, a physician, activist, and prominent Palestinian politician known for his secular, reformist orientation.

The Trump plan need not fail for lack of Palestinian leaders​. ​ ​After all, there is also the whole of the Palestinian diaspora to scour for possible figures​ able and, hopefully, willing to play their part in rebuilding Gaza and constructing a promising future for the whole region.  The political will to get started is all that is needed.

Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online, 13 October 2025:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-870182



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