Wednesday, 21 January 2026

Yemen in chaos

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 21 January 2026

The people of Yemen are living through one of the world’s worst humanitarian and economic crises.  Yemen, long a tangle of competing interests, has become a battlefield.  Not only are three major entities, each wielding armed force, competing for power, but two Gulf states have been close to war with each other over Yemen-related issues. 

The three main combatants​ are the internationally recognized government, mainly operating out of Riyadh​ in Saudi Arabia; the Southern Transitional Council (STC) until recently based in Aden, but now dispersed;  and the Houthis, entrenched in the capital Sanaa.  Poverty, food insecurity and collapsed public services are affecting the population​s ​of all three.    

In 2025 over 19 million people – roughly half the population – were assessed as needing humanitarian assistance, while more than 80% of Yemenis were found to be living in poverty, many unable to meet basic food needs.

        Yemen’s internationally acknowledged sovereign authority resides in the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), established in 2022 after the previous unified republic disintegrated in the aftermath of the so-called “Arab Spring”.  The then-president ceded his powers and the governance of Yemen to the PLC, which is now led by Rashid Muhammad al-Alimi.  He holds the powers of the presidency, and is backed by Saudi Arabia. 

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) was formed in May 2017.  It is an attempt, backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to restore the independent South Yemen that had existed before the unification of north and south in 1990.  The movement is headed by Aidarus al‑Zoubaidi, once governor of Aden, who serves as its president.  Paradoxically al-Zoubadi, who is in armed conflict with the government, simultaneously serves as a vice-president in the PLC.

The STC’s political leadership was based in Aden, which it dubbed the capital of a future South Yemen, but its fortunes have recently undergone a dramatic reversal.  

On December 2 al-Zoubaidi launched a major offensive across southern and eastern Yemen.  Within a week STC forces controlled most of the former South Yemen’s territory, including almost all of the southern coastline.  

One month later, on January 2,  PLC president al‑Alimi ordered a counter​-offensive.  Backed by Saudi forces and airstrikes the PLC retook the towns captured by the STC, pushed its forces out of key positions, and assumed control of Aden, its main security sites and institutions.   By January 9 most of the STC’s December territorial gains had been reversed, and the PLC had re‑established its authority over the non‑Houthi south and east. 

Al-Zoubaidi fled to the UAE capital Abu Dhabi. Even so, the UAE, without formally renouncing its support for the STC, has announced its “counter​-terrorism mission” is at an end, and declared it ​intended to pull its remaining forces from Yemen.

​The present unhappy position stems back to 2011​, when popular forces within Yemen, imbued with the intoxicating zeal of the Arab Spring, forced President Ali Abdullah Saleh from power.  He abdicated in favor of his deputy, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.   

Hoping for a return to power, Saleh allied himself with the Houthis, who swept down from the north in a bid to overthrow the government.  Funded and supplied by Iran, and with Saleh’s help, during 2014-2015 the Houthis seized over 30% of the country including the capital, Sanaa.

In March 2015 Saudi Arabia, alarmed at the prospect of Iran gaining a foothold on the Arabian peninsular, formed an international coalition to support the government, and attacked the Houthis.  Since then the Houthis have entrenched themselves into their substantial tract of west Yemen from where, supported by Iran, they have been striking not only Israel, but international shipping which often had little or no direct connection to Israel.

Until December 30 Saudi Arabia and the UAE had never attacked each other directly.  On that day Saudi aircraft bombed the southern port of Mukalla, claiming they were targeting a UAE weapons shipment destined for the STC’s anti-government campaign. The Mukalla strike, an unprecedented escalation, was followed by the PLC’s successful counterattack on the STC.  

The international community continues to fail Yemen.  Despite President Donald Trump’s peace-making aspirations and close relations with the leaders of both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the US has not pressured either to de-escalate the political tensions.

​The US has not interven​ed in Yemen’s internal civil war​, ​nor ​sought regime change in Sanaa.​ What the US concentrated on was degrading the Houthis’ ability to attack shipping​. US naval forces have taken the lead in coalition interception operations, shooting down Houthi missiles, drones and unmanned surface vessels aimed at merchant shipping and warships in and around the Red Sea.  The US directly linked these defensive actions at sea to targeted on‑shore strikes, since many of the radars and launchers destroyed were enabling the attacks on international shipping lanes.

On May 6, 2025 a ​US-Houthi ceasefire arrangement brokered by Oman took effect, ending the US air campaign in exchange for a halt to attacks on US vessels.  The Houthis explicitly stated that this did not apply to Israel, and that they would continue to attack vessels in the Red Sea.​  The ceasefire has held.

As for the UN, it has long had the Yemen situation under review, although its efforts have not succeeded in resolving its conflicts, either political or military. 

It was on September 5, 2021 that Hans Grundberg took up the post of UN Special Envoy for Yemen.  He currently works under a Security Council mandate to mediate an end to the conflict in Yemen.  His remit is to facilitate a Yemeni‑owned political process leading to an inclusive political settlement. 

This is not entirely a “pie in the sky” aspiration, since in April 2022 Grundberg actually secured a nationwide two-month truce between the Houthis and the government.  He secured two renewals of the truce (to early August and then to October 2, 2022), providing roughly six months of relative calm.  Even though the truce later lapsed, Grundberg  was able to use it to open some limited political and economic space for a time.

The UN is now reduced to issuing ineffective, if well-intentioned, aspirations for Yemen’s future.  On December 22 the Security Council published a statement reaffirming its support for the efforts of the UN Special Envoy, and its…”strong commitment to the unity, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Yemen, and to the Presidential Leadership Council and the Government of Yemen.”

Small comfort to the struggling, poverty-stricken and battle-weary Yemenis.

Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "Yemen's fractured power struggle deepens its humanitarian, political crisis," 21 January 2026:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-883829

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