Yemen famine map, Oct-Dec 2017
The Houthis, a fundamentalist Shia
group, take their name from Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a
revolutionary leader who launched an uprising against the
government in 2004 and was killed by the Yemeni army later
that year. The organization’s philosophy
is summarised with blinding clarity by their flag, which consists of five
statements in Arabic, the first and the last in green, the middle three in red.
They read: "God is
Great; Death to America; Death to Israel; A curse on the Jews; Victory to
Islam"
.
Although a Sunni Muslim, Saleh seemed
intent on manoeuvering a return to power in collaboration with the
Shia-affiliated Houthis. It was through Saleh
that the Houthis were able to gain control of most of the Yemeni military,
including its air force. As a result, and supported with military hardware from
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, they overran large tracts of the country, including
the capital city, Sana’a.
If any one area is a microcosm of
the chaotic and bloody battlefield that is today’s Middle East, it is
Yemen. Here, as across the region, Islam
is at war with itself, as the deadly rivalry between Saudi Arabia’s ruling
family, guardians of the Sunni tradition of Islam, and Iran’s equally uncompromising Shia-based
Islamic revolution, plays itself out.
Although other militant groups
roam the country, the main principals are the Iranian-supported Houthi rebels; and
Saudi Arabia which, determined to prevent Iran from extending its footprint
into the Arabian peninsula, intervened in March 2015 to beat back the
Houthis. Saudi Arabia’s charismatic young Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, assembled a coalition of Arab states from across the Middle East, obtained the
diplomatic backing of the US, Turkey and Pakistan, and launched a series of air
strikes against the rebels.
The unconventional Saleh-Houthi partnership
came to an abrupt end on December 2, 2017, when Saleh went on television to declare
that he was splitting from the Houthi rebels, was ready to enter into dialogue
with the Saudi-led coalition, and called on his supporters to take back the
country. This volte-face is rumored to have
been master-minded by Saudi’s Prince Mohammed. It was to end in tragedy.
On December 4, Saleh's house in
Sana'a was besieged by Houthi fighters. He
managed to escape, but apparently a rocket-propelled grenade struck and
disabled his vehicle as he was trying
to flee into Saudi-controlled territories. Dead or alive, he was
subsequently shot in the head.
Nearly three years of combat have
not succeeded in defeating the Houthis. On
the contrary, time seems to have emboldened them. Using Iranian hardware, they have
started firing ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia itself, the latest on
December 18. Although the Houthis were responsible for initiating the turmoil
in the first place, it is the Saudis and their coalition who are at the
receiving end of the world’s opprobrium for the humanitarian devastation that
the conflict has wrought. More
than 350 high-profile figures including six Nobel peace prize laureates,
former military generals, politicians, diplomats and celebrities marked the
1,000th day of the civil war by calling on leaders of France, the US and
the UK to use their seats on the UN security council to act as peace brokers.
The moment may be opportune. After investing billions of dollars in the
war, Prince Mohammed is said to want to cut his military losses and withdraw
from Yemen in exchange for some diplomatic arrangement. Getting ex-president Saleh to change sides was
his first unsuccessful ploy. Can he
possibly mastermind a situation that can extricate Saudi Arabia from the
conflict without leaving Iran as victors?
What Yemen needs are elections, an
inclusive government, and a new structure for the state. But efforts
by the UN envoy, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, to end the conflict and resume
the peaceful political evolution that started in 2011 remain stalled. There
have been talks in plenty, but the underlying constant throughout has been the
lack of political will on the part of the Houthis to share power.
The international community must summon
up the will to insist on the immediate implementation of UN Resolution 2216, which
aims to establish democracy in a federally united Yemen. It must back this new
effort with a UN peace-keeping force, while Iran must be prevented, by the
imposition of new sanctions if necessary, from assisting the Houthis and supplying
them with military hardware. Humanitarian
aid must be given unfettered access to all parts of Yemen, and already on
December 19 Saudi announced that it would allow such aid through the
Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah for a month. A lasting political deal would of
course involve the end of the Saudi-led military operation, and probably a
major financial commitment by Saudi to fund the rebuilding of the country.
Finally the Houthis must be given
the opportunity to choose. Do they wish
to remain an outlawed militia permanently, or would they prefer to become a
legitimate political party, able to contest parliamentary and presidential
elections and participate in government? The price would be withdrawal from
Sana’a and serious engagement in negotiations aimed at a peaceful transition to
a political solution for a united Yemen.
Let’s hope they consider it a price worth paying to come in out of the
cold.
Published in the Jerusalem Post on-line, 27 December 2017:
http://www.jpost.com/Blogs/A-Mid-East-Journal/Yemens-1000-days-of-agony-a-way-out-520088
Published in the Eurasia Review, 29 December 2017:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/29122017-yemens-1000-days-of-agony-a-way-out-oped/
Published in the Jerusalem Post on-line, 27 December 2017:
http://www.jpost.com/Blogs/A-Mid-East-Journal/Yemens-1000-days-of-agony-a-way-out-520088
Published in the Eurasia Review, 29 December 2017:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/29122017-yemens-1000-days-of-agony-a-way-out-oped/
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