Turkey and Greece shake hands

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 27 September 2023

           On September 5 the foreign ministers of Turkey and Greece – Hakan Fidan and Giorgos Gerapetritis – met in Ankara.  At the subsequent press conference, standing side by side, they announced that a new era of friendly cooperation had dawned between their countries.  

It all began with the summer elections in 2023.  By the end of May Turkey’s Recep Tayyyip Erdogan had won his follow-up poll and was re-installed in the presidential palace.  At the end of June Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was re-elected in a resounding victory at the polls. The two nationalist leaders were safely back at the helm.   In a move virtually unthinkable only a year before, Erdogan – an incarnation of the “big bad wolf” to many Greeks – phoned Mitsotakis to congratulate him.

This amiable gesture did not come completely out of the blue.  Following the devastating Turkey-Syria earthquake in February, Greece had swiftly responded with assistance, and as a result a relatively friendly climate had been generated.  This had been strengthened when, after a deadly train accident in Greece on May 1 that killed at least 32 people, Erdogan extended his condolences.  His action was echoed by many Turkish citizens who offered support and solidarity via social media.

During their chat on the phone, Erdogan and Mitsotakis, realizing that they would both be attending the NATO summit scheduled to take place in Lithuania in July, agreed to meet on the sidelines for an informal discussion.

That discussion duly took place, and proved surprisingly productive.  The two leaders produced a “roadmap” intended to expand the developing rapprochement between their nations.  They agreed that their foreign ministers would hold talks aimed at fostering confidence-building measures, and that the long-suspended High Level Cooperation Council (HLCC) would be revived.

The HLCC was inaugurated on 14 May, 2010, during a visit of Turkey’s then-prime minister Erdogan to Athens.  It was an attempt to establish a forum where the two countries, almost continuously at odds with each other, could at least discuss their differences.  Over the years four sessions were held, the last in March 2016.  Now the Council was to be revitalized and, it was agreed, by the end of the year Greece and Turkey would be sitting together round the table in Thessaloniki. 

This was the background to the meeting on September 5 between Fidan and Gerapetritis. During their subsequent media conference Fidan thanked Greece for its assistance after the unprecedented earthquakes that had killed more than 50,000 people, and said that Turkey was "ready to help" as Greece battles weeks of deadly wildfires.

Turning to the Turkey-Greece rapprochement they were initiating, Gerapetritis said:

"We don't have our heads in the clouds.  We know that the…passions passed on from generation to generation cannot be erased with one stroke. But we have the disposition and the will to invest in candor and mutual understanding so as to seek common ground, break with established opinions and, where there are disagreements, at least not have them lead to crises." 

Fidan sang from the same hymn-sheet.

"We have entered a new and positive era in our relations with Greece," he said. "We are ready to continue dialogue with our neighbor Greece without any preconditions, and to develop our relations in all fields based on common interests."

Not everyone believed him.  Only three years earlier the two nations had been on the brink of military conflict over sovereignty in areas of the Mediterranean, and related rights to drill for oil in the disputed ocean zones. The Greek and Turkish navies were shadowing each other in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean for much of the summer of 2020, after Turkey sent a survey ship to prospect for oil and gas in waters Greece claims as its jurisdiction under international law.

The dispute rumbled on, exacerbated in Erdogan’s eyes by the emerging Greek, Cypriot, Israeli and Egyptian oil and gas alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean, backed by the US.  The relationship soured further when in May 2022 Mitsotakis, during an address to the US Congress, joined a campaign to deny US military jets to Turkey.  Erdogan, furious at the Greek prime minister, vowed never to speak to him again.

          Since then Erdogan has taken steps to repair relations with both Israel and Egypt, while Turkey’s standing in Washington has been greatly strengthened by Erdogan’s agreement to allow Sweden to join NATO.  As part of that deal, the US Congress has promised Turkey dozens of F-16s, with Greece also getting fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets.

          ​​The two foreign ministers confirmed that their respective leaders planned to carry the initiative forward by meeting later in September, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly ​in New York.  On Erdogan’s shopping list is his wish to revive Turkey's accession track to the EU. A better relationship with Greece could help that. High among other unresolved issues is delineating the two nations’ exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean, while way out on the horizon is even the possible reunification of Cyprus.

Meanwhile​ on September 20 the ​long-delayed meeting between Erdogan and Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu took place  at Turkish House in New York​, when they came face to face for the first time. ​ The​y discussed regional and international issues, including normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia​, and decided to continue advancing bilateral relations in trade, economic matters and energy.​  The word from the meeting is that Erdogan plans to visit Jerusalem as soon as October. 

          Back in 2016 Israel, Cyprus and Greece forged a tight cooperative relationship spanning a wide spectrum of activities including trade, energy, defense, hi-tech and security.  Netanyahu took advantage of the New York gathering of world leaders to meet up with his Greek and Cypriot partners.  Not to be outdone, Erdogan also organized a discussion with Mitsotakis.  Erdogan is intent on drawing closer to both Greece and Israel to ensure that Turkey is not disadvantaged by this thriving alliance, or perhaps to snatch an advantage by way of a bi-lateral deal with one or other of the partners.  He seems to have decided for the moment to follow Winston Churchill’s famous aphorism:  “Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.”

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and in the Jerusalem Post on-line titled: "Are Turkey and Greece allies now?", 27 September 2023:

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-760569

Published in Eurasia Review, 29 September 2023:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/29092023-turkey-and-greece-shake-hands-oped/

Published in the MPC Journal, 2 October 2023:

https://mpc-journal.org/turkey-and-greece-shake-hands/

Why Egypt needs Israel’s gas

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 21 September 2023

 

The Egypt-Israel gas deal of the late 1990s-early 2000s has been turned on its head.  Originally conceived as a means of providing Israel with natural gas when it had no domestic supplies of its own, the boot has been transferred to the other foot. On August 23 Israel announced that it has agreed to increase by some 70% its export of natural gas to Egypt, which is contending with rising demand and falling output from its own resources.

In the late 1990s, when Israel had to import all its fossil fuel needs, the Israeli government decided to encourage the use of natural gas.  A number of reasons lay behind the decision, cost and environmental impact among them.  It turned to Egypt, and an agreement was hammered out. Israel would be supplied with natural gas, first in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), but later through an undersea branch of the planned Arab Gas Pipeline.  That branch eventually became the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline line running direct from Egypt to Israel. 

From 2008 until the political turmoil in Egypt following the Arab Spring of 2011 the pipeline supplied about half of Israel’s natural gas needs. The next two years were marked by political turmoil in Egypt, and the feeder pipeline in Sinai was sabotaged again and again.  No sooner was the damage repaired and supplies resumed to Israel – and, incidentally, to Jordan, which Egypt was also supplying with natural gas – than a further explosion put the pipeline out of commission.  After no less than fourteen such incidents, the pipeline was shut down.

A few years later Egypt was in the throes of an energy crisis. Rising demand and falling gas and oil output had transformed the country from exporter to importer of both.  Commercial interests spied a profitable opportunity.  Deals in 2018 paved the way for the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline to be reopened, but with the flow reversed so that Israel could supply Egypt with the natural gas it desperately needed.  As from 2020 gas from Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar fields, located off the northern Israeli coastline, were transferred via the pipeline from Ashkelon to Arish in Egypt.

Egypt’s power crisis may have been eased, but it was far from resolved. By June this year  the country was suffering severe power cuts.  First affected were street lamps and some public services. Then, as temperatures began to soar – up to 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) were  recorded – power cuts were imposed, lasting about six hours in some areas.  According to officials, the power outages resulted from exceptional pressure on the energy grid caused by the high demand for electricity to power fans and air conditioning.  By mid-July Egypt’s electricity company was calling  on people to avoid using elevators, in case they were trapped through a power cut. 

Egypt’s prime minister, Mostafa Madbouly, claimed that the networks would soon return to normal, but that in any case steps were in hand to ration electricity consumption.

Egypt, although it was facing growing demand for gas from its 105 million population, saw its own natural gas production decline by 9% year-on-year between January and May 2023, and by 12% compared to the same period in 2021.

It was against this background that Egypt sought, and Israel announced, the increase in its natural gas sales to Egypt.  One factor easing the deal may well be Egypt’s presidential elections, due to be held in February 2024.  Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, would certainly rather face the electorate with the power crisis well behind him.

Sisi was first elected president under Egypt’s 2014 constitution, which provided for presidential terms to last four years, and for no president to serve more than two terms.  He won his second term in 2018, but in April 2019 Egypt's parliament extended presidential terms from four to six years, and in addition Sisi was allowed to run for a third term in the 2024 election.

Explaining the new Egypt-Israel agreement, Israel’s Energy Minister, Israel Katz, said that gas exports to Egypt, currently about 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per annum, will be increased by 3.5 bcm per annum over 11 years.  Israel also intends to expand production from Tamar by 60% from 2026.

"This step will increase the state's revenue and strengthen diplomatic ties between Israel and Egypt," said Katz.

The arrangement is far from the liking of some public figures in Israel.  Some public advocacy groups have warned that Israel could suffer gas shortages as domestic demand rises, and have raised the prospect of environmental damage from heightened offshore activity.  In June, Yogev Gardos, Israel's budget director, said there was an "immediate need for the examination" of export policy.  Israel should urgently review how much natural gas the country should export, he said, to make sure it keeps enough for itself.  In fact back in 2013 Israel set limits on how much could be sold abroad, earmarking around 60% of reserves for domestic use.

Israel is expected to roughly double its gas output over the coming years, and in a letter to the director-general of the Energy Ministry, Gardos said that exporting too much "could endanger Israel's energy security" and lead to higher electricity prices. 

Katz responded to the letter in a robust Twitter post: "Decisions on the gas sector take into account broad policy considerations, such as Israel's standing, and the one who will make the decisions is me - the minister elected by the people. Not the professional echelon."

He could afford to respond straight from the shoulder, for he already knew that Israel’s fourth offshore bidding round, launched in December 2022, had been an outstanding success.  Four groups of companies, adding up to a total of nine companies – five of which were new to the Israeli market –  had bid to explore for additional offshore natural gas fields in Israeli waters.

The three major Israel fields currently in production – Tamar, Leviathan and Karish – have total estimated reserves of 1000 billion cubic meters (bcm).  Four more fields have already been discovered, and are awaiting exploitation – Zeus, Athena, Hermes and Kallan – which taken together amount to an estimated further 108 bcm of natural gas.  With the forthcoming exploration now in the pipeline, Israel’s future, both as regards satisfying its own gas needs and as a remunerative gas exporting nation, seems assured.

Published in the Jerusalem Post and in the Jerusalem Post on-line titled: "It is Egypt that needs Israeli natural gas", , 21 September 2023:
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-759895Eurasia Review, 22 September 2023

Published in Eurasia Review, 22 September 2023:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/22092023-why-egypt-needs-israels-gas-oped/

Published in the MPC Journal, 26 September 2023:

https://mpc-journal.org/why-egypt-needs-israels-gas/

Sisi’s plea to Egyptians: cut the birth rate

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 12 September 2023

On September 5, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi inaugurated the first Global Congress on Population, Health, and Development.  The four-day event was convened to examine the issue of population growth in relation to sustainable development.  Opening the conference, Sisi discussed the topics as they affected Egypt in particular.  He was clear – the balance between population levels and sustainable development was way out of kilter.

“During the 1950s,” said Sisi, “the gap between state resources and population growth was approximately 10-12 percent, and the population ranged between 19 and 20 million people. The gap was not large.”

Since 2000 Egypt’s population has grown by 40 million and now stands at 105 million people.  Its birth rate is currently 2 million per annum.  Available resources, said Sisi, dictated that Egypt has to reduce that by no less than 80 percent, that is to no more than 400,000 births per year.

Sisi picked up on a reported remark by his health and population minister, Khaled Abdel Ghaffar, that “having children is a matter of complete freedom”.  He was scornful.  Leave the freedom to choose their family size to people who potentially do not know the extent of the challenge?  “The whole of society and the Egyptian state will pay the price,” he said. “We must organize this freedom, otherwise it will create a catastrophe."

Hinting that Egypt could emulate China’s one-child policy (abandoned in 2016), since China “succeeded in their population control policy,” he added that other African countries should also adopt population control measures, since the continent lacks sufficient resources to sustain its surging population. 

“For example,” he said, “on the African continent, within a few years, we will reach more than 1.6 billion people, and the resources in Africa [abundant though they are]…cannot take care of it all.”

When Egypt’s health minister Ghaffar took the stage,

he was careful to by-pass the remark his president had rejected about freedom of choice on family size, and maintained that the problem of a growing population is Egypt’s greatest challenge, both now and in the future.

“It hinders the wheel of economic growth,” he said, “and eats up all development returns, which affects the level of services provided to citizens and their standard of living. This requires us to work to achieve a balance between economic growth and population growth to ensure the … well-being (of) all.”

Ghaffar was unequivocally in favor of Egypt’s official line on population control.  He stressed the state’s commitment to implementing a population program aimed at achieving a balance between population growth rates and the resources available to the state, within the framework of achieving sustainable development.

“Family planning,” he announced, “is the largest investment project that, if Egypt adopts it, will bring it profits and benefits, as every pound the state spends on family planning saves 151.7 pounds in return.”

This first Global Congress on Population, Health and Development provided a rare opportunity for researchers and policy makers from across the world to exchange first-hand information on the relationship between population, health and sustainable development. The conference brought together decision-makers, health ministers from different countries, ambassadors, international partner agencies, UN and USAID, banking entities, entrepreneurs and the media.  It is no surprise that the Global Congress is scheduled to become an annual event, probably to be staged – as this one was – in Egypt’s prestigious new capital city, as yet only partially constructed and unnamed, but unofficially dubbed the New Administrative Capital.

It might be tempting, if cynical, to perceive a connection between the presidential plea to reduce the nation’s birth rate on resource grounds, and the state’s lavish funding of prestige projects.  First announced in 2015, Egypt’s new capital has been under construction for years, at an estimated cost of more than $50 billion.  It is one of a whole variety of megaprojects being built by Sisi’s government at enormous cost, and the Egyptian government is deeply in debt.  

The new capital, about 28 miles southeast of Cairo, is designed in part to relieve Cairo’s crumbling infrastructure, and is planned to house more than six million residents. Government administrative headquarters will be moved there.  It is already home to the tallest building in Africa (the 77-floor Ionic Tower), to a huge presidential palace, and to dozens of ministry buildings, schools, hospitals, mosques, and churches.

Over-population of the planet has long been a concern for some thinkers and scientists.  Since 1804, the global human population has increased from 1 billion to 8 billion.  Among the factors causing this are medical advances and improved agricultural productivity. According to the most recent UN projections, the "global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100."  

The good news is that the UN's projections predict that human population will peak at around 10.4 billion people, before decreasing in line with falling fertility rates worldwide.

On July 10, the UN published a discussion document on the implications for planetary health and sustainability of a global population in excess of 8 billion. 

Brought down to basics, humanity’s impact on the earth’s environment is measured by the number of inhabitants, how much each person consumes and the technology used to meet that level of consumption. If average global consumption were on a par with the levels of today’s high-income countries, the planet could not support even its current population.  The highly resource-intensive patterns of consumption in developed countries are not sustainable or replicable on a global scale. Population growth amplifies such pressures.

Developing nations such as Egypt and the other states of the African continent are acting wisely in recognizing that unrestricted population growth, if unmatched by an equivalent increase in resources, would deal a body blow to hopes of sustainable development.

In such an environment, initiatives such as Sisi’s Global Congress on Population, Health, and Development make perfect sense.

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post on-line titled: "Sisi's plea to citizens: cut Egypt's birth rate", 12 September 2023:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-758565 

Published in Eurasia Review, 15 September 2023:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/15092023-sisis-plea-to-egyptians-cut-the-birth-rate-oped/#:~:text=Since%202000%20Egypt's%20population%20has,than%20400%2C000%20births%20per%20year.

Published in the MPC Journal, 20 September 2023:
https://mpc-journal.org/sisis-plea-to-egyptians-cut-the-birth-rate/

Syrian protesters: "Assad must go"

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 5 September 2023

The last two weeks of August saw southern Syria rocked by popular anti-government protests, including a strike by many shops demonstrating against constant increases in the price of basic goods.  Starting as widespread demands for economic reform, the mass demonstrations soon morphed into calls for the removal of President Bashar al-Assad and the overthrow of his regime.

On August 28 protesters gathered in the southern city of Sweida, home to much of the country’s Druze minority. Video shared by Sweida24, a news and media website, showed several hundred people gathered in a central square waving Druze flags and chanting slogans, including “down with Bashar al-Assad.”

The protests were triggered by the government's decision on August 16 to cut fuel subsidies, but the major underlying factor was the non-stop decline in the value of the Syrian pound (or lira) that has been imposing an ever-increasing financial burden on household budgets.  The Syrian pound has been declining throughout the summer, hitting a succession of historic lows. It finally achieved a threefold depreciation on its late-2022 valuation, converting on the black market – always a premium on the official rate – at 15,000 to the dollar.  In March 2011, just after the Arab Spring protests began in Syria, the exchange rate was 47 Syrian pounds to the dollar.

UN statistics reveal that at least 90 per cent of Syrians live in poverty, and over 60 per cent of the population struggle to secure their daily food needs. With international sanctions imposed on the government, and Syria’s main oil fields controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces, the whole population is subject to frequent and prolonged power cuts, which have obviously contributed to the growing frustration.

Throughout the political, military and humanitarian turmoil of the past decade, Assad has received consistent support from certain areas in Syria – for example the Mediterranean coastal region around Latakia, the ancestral homeland of the minority Alawite sect to which Assad himself belongs.  But now the dissent has spread even there.  In a rare act of defiance, Alawite protesters recently closed down branches of the Baath party, expelled government officials, and tore down posters of Assad.

And yet, despite a clearly deteriorating situation, media reports indicate that government security forces have been instructed to lie low, while to date the government itself has issued no official statements about the mushrooming protests.  One explanation is that, in order to avoid prejudicing his recent return to the Arab League, Assad may be exercising an uncharacteristic restraint.  He doubtless has in mind that he was expelled in 2011 for the ruthlessness he exhibited when clamping down on  Arab Spring anti-government protests.  He would not relish history repeating itself in that regard.

                     Assad rejoins Arab League, May 2023

He probably believes that, sustained by Iran and Russia and the Arab family of nations,  his grip on power is unshakable and that he can outride the storm of protest. But the situation is fluid, and an unexpected development is always possible.

   On August 28 The New Arab, a pan-Arab news website working out of London, reported that a new opposition group calling itself "The 10th of August Movement" has been launched in Syria, and that many of its founders and supporters are drawn from Assad’s Alawite sect.  The organization, while proclaiming that it supports peaceful, non-sectarian resistance, nevertheless calls for the ousting of the Assad regime.

The new body, which says it has thousands of members within regime-held areas, asserts that it is a new type of Syrian opposition, having learned from the violent aftermath of the 2011 Syrian uprising.  That ruthless defense of the Assad regime, they remember, included the use of chemical weapons against groups of Syrians actively opposed to the government, plus horrific collateral death and injury to innocent civilians. 

Although the 10th of August Movement is in its infancy, it has laid out a structured plan for achieving its revolutionary objective.  It claims that in less than a month it has spread right across Syria, encompassing a wide range of sects and ethnicities, and it professes to have a "cell" in every city in Syrian regime territory.  The New Arab reports that it has started to make inroads among the army and the country's security services. Members of different security branches, the news site claims, frustrated with the economic and political situation, are reaching out to the movement to offer their support.

The new organization has links with at least five other underground opposition groups across Syria. Like them, it will have to contend with the huge security apparatus that sustains Assad’s regime.  Syrians are regularly arrested for posting on social media or voicing anti-government opinions. The government has not publicly acknowledged the existence of the 10th of August Movement, but on August 21 the Syrian news medium, Enab Baladi, reported a wave of arrests in Latakia and other areas once considered loyal to the regime, targeting members of the movement.

The launch of the Movement was accompanied by a statement demanding, among other things, that the government raise the minimum wage to at least $100 a month; provide electricity for at least 20 hours a day (the current average is three in most areas); and release some 136,000 political prisoners.

These are practical measures that could relieve the hardship currently being endured by those living in Assad-ruled Syria.  But the movement has a far more fundamental aim – a hopeful future for all Syrians.  Given the lessons of history, and the chaos Assad has inflicted on the country, the 10th of August Movement concludes that this can be achieved only by waving farewell to Bashar al-Assad and his regime. 

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 5 September 2023, and in the Jerusalem Post on-line under the title: "Practical measures could relieve the hardship of Assad-ruled Syria":
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-757579

Published in Eurasia Review, 9 September 2023:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/09092023-syrian-protesters-assad-must-go-oped/

Published in the MPC Journal, 11 September 2023

https://mpc-journal.org/syrian-protesters-assad-must-go/