When President Donald Trump withdrew the US
from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, he imposed new banking sanctions on the
regime. August 4 is the day on which they are due to come into
effect, further exacerbating the damage already done to the Iranian economy –
damage which led in June to widespread popular demonstrations against
government restrictions, the mushrooming cost of food and household goods, and
the falling value of the Rial. Further US
sanctions aimed at strangling Iran’s oil exports are scheduled for November.
Reports indicate that, as a run-up to the new toughened
sanctions, Washington has launched an offensive of speeches and online communications meant to encourage internal
unrest against the regime, while exerting pressure on the leadership to renegotiate
its nuclear programme and end its support for extremist militant groups. The campaign has been running for some few weeks,
but a highlight was a speech delivered on July 22 by US Secretary of State,
Mike Pompeo.
In a no-holds-barred verbal
onslaught, Pompeo openly accused several Iranian leaders, by name, of
corruption. He said Nasser Makarem Shirazi, the grand ayatollah, had generated
more than $100m for himself in the illicit trade of sugar; that Ayatollah
Mohammad Emami Kashani was worth millions after the government transferred
several lucrative mines to his foundation; and that the country’s supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had an off-the-books hedge fund, Setad, worth
$95bn.
“The level of corruption and
wealth among regime leaders,” he said, “shows that Iran is run by something that resembles the mafia more than a government.”
Sometimes, said Pompeo, it seemed
as though the world had become desensitized to the Iranian regime’s human
rights abuses at home and its campaigns in support of terrorist groups across
the Middle East. “But the proud Iranian
people are not staying silent about their government’s many abuses,” he said,
“and the United States under President Trump will not stay silent either… I
have a message for the people of Iran: the United States hears you. The United
States supports you. The United States is with you.”
The intensified anti-regime
campaign being conducted by the Trump administration has unsettled the Iranian
leadership. Rattled by the steps already
taken by the US, and fearful of those promised, it does not trust even the countries
apparently in support of the nuclear deal. Though the EU opposed Trump’s
withdrawal from the deal and is seeking to maintain its trade ties with Iran,
its proposals for economic guarantees have so far been judged “insufficient” by the Supreme Leader. On July 21 Khamenei said the nation should not count on Europe’s
proposals to keep the nuclear deal in place following Washington’s exit. He was
echoing Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who has questioned
whether Europe has the will to continue with the current deal. The leadership have in mind that the US has
promised to bear down heavily on nations which try to by-pass the banking
sanctions shortly to be imposed on Iran.
Even more disturbing to the regime
are the additional US sanctions promised for November aimed at Iranian oil
exports. Most of Iran’s oil, like most
of the seaborne oil trade of other members of the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries, is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of
the Persian Gulf. Declaring on 22 July
that “No one who really understands politics would say they will block Iran’s
oil exports. We have many straits, the
Strait of Hormuz is just one of those,” Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani addressed the US President directly. “Mr Trump,
we are the honest men who have throughout history guaranteed the safety of this
region’s waterways. Do not tweak the lion’s tail, it will bring regret.”
Rouhani augmented that veiled
threat with another less oblique: “America should know that peace with Iran is
the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars.”
Messages like these acted on Trump
like a red rag to a bull. At 6.24 am on
Monday morning, July 23, he pressed “Send” on a tweet addressed to Rouhani in
person, and written entirely in capital letters:
“Never, ever threaten the United States again or you will
suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever
suffered before. We are no longer a country that will stand for your demented
words of violence and death. Be cautious!”
By using capitals Trump was assuring himself of at least a minor advantage, since there are no capital letters in Farsi for Rouhani to reciprocate in.
Although
the US administration is certainly not contemplating initiating regime change
in Iran by way of overt military intervention, the Trump White House may be
hoping to out-maneuver the leadership, appeal to domestic Iranian public
opinion, and facilitate a popular uprising.
Trump is reported to have reached some sort of understanding with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Israel’s
prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, either to remove Iran from Syria
altogether, or at least to severely restrict its presence. Any such outcome would be a humiliation for
the Iranian regime, but is likely to appeal greatly to the Iranian public. Costly “foreign adventures” like Iran’s
involvement in the Syrian civil war were a major cause of public protest in the
popular demonstrations in June, since they were perceived to be at the expense
of ordinary Iranians.
Trump
is clearly hoping to weaken the Iranian regime significantly, and perhaps
fatally, by exerting financial, commercial, economic and political pressure
wherever it may hurt. He may be hoping
to replicate with Rouhani the success he had in bringing North Korea’s leader,
Kim Jong-un, to discussions. In that
event, a renegotiated Iran deal, encompassing both nuclear and missile
development as well as an end for Iranian support for terrorist activity
directly and through the groups it sponsors, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas
in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen – this is the least that Trump
hopes for from the current war of words.
Published in the Jerusalem Post, 28 July 2018:
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/The-presidential-war-of-words-563649
Published in the Jerusalem Post, 29 July 2018:
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/The-presidential-war-of-words-563719
Published in the Eurasia Review, 31 July 2018:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/31072018-a-presidential-war-of-words-oped/
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