Wednesday, 16 September 2026

The end of the SDF

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 16 September 2026

            The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was formed back in 2015.

A year earlier ISIS had proclaimed itself to be a worldwide caliphate, claiming religious and political authority over all Muslims. It then proceeded to conquer and absorb great swathes of Syria and Iraq, and was designated a terrorist organization by the UN, the US and many countries, including Muslim-majority states.

            Opposing ISIS in northern Syria were the Kurdish-led YPG (People’s Protection Units).  Together with the closely linked YPJ (Women’s Protection Units), they joined with Arab, Assyrian and other local armed groups to create a broader coalition, and this became the SDF.

            The US had already begun supporting the YPG, particularly during the battle for Kobani in 2014–15.  After the SDF was formed, Washington began arming, advising and providing air support to it as its principal ground partner against ISIS.

Backed by Washington, the SDF proved remarkably successful in combating ISIS.  It conquered stronghold after stronghold, and finally, with the capture of Baghouz in 2019, ended the ISIS caliphate in Syria.

In the years that followed, the SDF developed its own security forces and civilian administration, and became the military and governing authority across much of north-eastern Syria.

Because the SDF was Kurdish-led and YPG-dominated, its powerful presence was opposed by Turkey.   

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regards the YPG as closely linked to the PKK, a political and militant element within the Kurdish autonomy movement that Turkey and the US designate as a terrorist organization.

He was doubtless delighted with the announcement on  August 25 by Mazloum Abdi, commander-in-chief of the SDF.  Speaking in a televised press conference in Damascus,  he declared that, following an agreement with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the SDF's mission had ended and that it was being dissolved “as an independent military force” and was being integrated as brigades into the Syrian army.

His announcement covered not only the military functions of the SDF, but also the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and its affiliated military and civilian institutions.  Abdi said these structures had likewise been integrated into Syrian state institutions.

As president of the post-Assad government in Syria, Sharaa is attempting to bring the disparate political, military and social forces that have been operating independently under the authority of a unified Syrian state.

On 10 March 2025 Sharaa and Abdi hammered out a deal.  The SDF's civilian and military institutions, including border crossings, oil and gas facilities, and airports, would come under state control.  In return the Kurds would be recognized as an integral part of Syria, be granted citizenship, political participation and other rights.

The deal lacked detail and was too fragile to hold.  In January 2026 government forces launched a lightning offensive against the SDF, rapidly capturing substantial SDF-held territory.  The SDF’s hopes of US protection, as in the past, were dashed, but a generous ceasefire deal saw SDF personnel entering Syria’s defense and interior ministries, while the government took over the border crossings, oil and gas fields and civilian institutions.

            The integration process continued over the next few months leading, eventually, to Abdi’s dissolution announcement which was not, of course, simply a voluntary decision by the SDF to disband. It was the end-point of a negotiated political settlement whose terms were progressively reshaped by the dramatic change in the military balance. The SDF leadership ultimately calculated that incorporation into the new Syrian state offered a better prospect for preserving Kurdish interests than trying to maintain an autonomous armed enclave against Damascus, Turkey and a less dependable US patron.

A few days after the SDF's dissolution Sharaa appointed Mazloum Abdi as a presidential adviser.  The appointment was widely read as a sign that Sharaa, far from trying to destroy the Kurdish leadership, was intent on integrating it into the nation’s governance.

            The SDF's disappearance is a major piece of Sharaa's state-consolidation project, but it is not the last, or necessarily the hardest, piece.  Major steps are still required.  He has to complete acquiring state monopoly of armed force.  The SDF was the biggest remaining autonomous military structure, and its dissolution is therefore a major breakthrough, but there are a fair number of former rebel and militia formations, and all need to be subordinated to the state.

He has to resolve the problem of the semi-autonomous Druze community in Sweida, which remains largely outside effective central-government control.  His challenge is to negotiate a restoration of state authority without provoking another major sectarian conflict.

Then there is the problem of building a genuinely national political settlement.  Ideally he would like Syria's Kurds, Druze, Alawites, Christians and other minorities to accept that their future security lies within a central Syrian state. The Kurdish settlement illustrates the model Sharaa appears to favor – recognizing communal rights, but eliminating autonomous armed and quasi-state institutions.

Sharaa needs, within a reasonable period of time, to complete the transition from revolutionary government to a fully functioning state – national ministries, judiciary, police, taxation, public services and a unified economic administration. It is currently a fragile transitional administration dependent on concentrated presidential power.

Finally there is his declared objective to establish a permanent constitution and elected government.

On  March 13, 2025, Sharaa signed a Constitutional Declaration establishing the legal framework for a five-year transitional period leading to a permanent constitutional settlement and democratic elections.

The People’s Assembly, which first convened in Damascus in July 2026, is a transitional legislature rather than a fully elected parliament.  Two-thirds of its 210 members were selected by regional electoral colleges, while Sharaa appointed the remaining 70.  

The roadmap is to move from this interim framework to a permanent constitution, followed by parliamentary elections. The Constitutional Declaration provides for a five-year transition from March 2025, ending only when both the permanent constitution has been adopted and elections held under it.  March 2030 is currently the outer horizon. The immediate next step is to establish the body that will be charged with drafting the new constitution. 

The absorption of the SDF’s military and administrative functions into the state was a vital step toward the eventual achievement of a fully functioning, democratic, constitutional Syria.

 

Friday, 11 September 2026

The Two-State Solution

 This letter appears in the Daily Telegraph today, 11 September 2026:



Sir

Ed Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said: “securing the two-state solution in its fullest form is the North Star of this government’s policy.”

Palestinian leadership has been offered a two-state solution on six separate occasions – first by Britain in 1937. The Peel Commission proposed the separation of Mandatory Palestine into an Arab state and a Jewish state. Zionist leaders accepted the principle; Arab leadership rejected it.

In 1947 the UN Partition Plan, which proposed independent Arab and Jewish states, was accepted by the Jewish leadership and rejected by the Arab.

Two-state offers were made at Camp David in 2000, and later that year by Bill Clinton. Neither was accepted by Yasser Arafat, head of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation.

In 2008 Arafat’s successor, Mahmoud Abbas, rejected the two-state solution offered by Ehud Olmert, then Israel’s prime minister,. He also refused to consider the two-state plan in 2020 that emerged from the efforts of Donald Trump’s team during his first term in office.

The West seems determined to thrust the two-state solution down the throat of a Palestinian leadership for whom it has no appeal.

 

Tuesday, 8 September 2026

Russia ditches its Syrian bases

Published in the Jerusalem Post, 8 September 2026

On August 9, the Syrian foreign ministry announced that, following approximately 18 months of negotiations, Syria and Russia had concluded a memorandum of understanding. The Russian presence at the Tartus naval facility, and at the Hmeimim air base adjacent to Latakia International Airport, would be “reorganized”.  The bases would pass into Syrian civilian administration, and their military facilities would be redefined as joint Syrian-Russian training and qualification centers.

As a result the Russian naval base at Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, operational for 55 years, is now virtually defunct.  A Nato official is reported as saying: “There has been nothing there since June. That’s the first time in more than 10 years. This is pretty significant.”  

Russian vessels previously stationed in the Med have been diverted to protect Putin’s armada of sanctioned oil tankers which operate principally on Baltic-to-ocean routes, passing through the Danish straits, the North Sea and, in some cases, the English Channel.

Immediately after the announcement, Syrian foreign minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani traveled to the coast with an official delegation.  He inspected both Tartus Port and the Hmeimim air base, established in 2015 by agreement between Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and Syria’s then-president, Bashar al-Assad.

SANA (the Syrian Arab News Agency) described the visit as “a tour of the facilities covered by the newly concluded memorandum.”  

The official Syrian accounts of the tour make no mention of any Russian representative being present.  But two days later, on August 11, Reuters reported the Russian Foreign Ministry's spin on the agreement:  “We regard the signing on August 9 of the memorandum between the Russian Federation and the Syrian Arab Republic on the operation of our bases in Hmeimim and Tartus as an important step aimed at further improving bilateral cooperation in the military sphere.”

So the focus of the Russian narrative is not abandonment of its Mediterranean presence, but continued military cooperation – and a Syrian source subsequently told Reuters that some Russian forces would indeed remain at the newly designated joint training centers.  But by August 12 Russian personnel were observed vacating buildings around the previously Russian-controlled commercial berth at Tartus, while Syria had already begun using it for civilian shipping.

So the former Russian naval base at Tartus is being dismantled as a military facility and is being converted into a joint Russian-Syrian training facility, and the same is true of Russia’s former air base at Hmeimim.  Arguably Hmeimim is the more consequential loss for Russia.  It was the hub for Russia's air operations in Syria, supported its wider military activities, and  enhanced its regional standing.

The effective end of Russia’s military presence at Tartus and Hmeimim is a strategic gain for Israel. When Russia established its air base at Hmeimim in 2015 to support the Assad regime, there was a risk that Israeli and Russian air operations over Syria could come into conflict. Jerusalem and Moscow consequently developed a deconfliction mechanism under which each side was given advance notice of planned air operations. With Russia no longer maintaining a significant aerial presence in Syria, Israeli air operations will face fewer constraints.

Israel’s current concerns in Syria are disrupting attacks against its troops in the south, preventing hostile forces from consolidating near the Golan Heights, and frustrating any attempt by Turkey to gain a military foothold that could threaten Israel.

For Turkey is increasingly filling the vacuum caused by Russia's withdrawal.  The post-Assad Syrian government has developed a close military relationship with Turkey, which has been helping rebuild Syrian military capabilities.  Israel has warned Turkey officially against embarking on what defense minister Israel Katz called “dangerous adventures in Syria.”

Israeli media reports have described Israel’s negotiating “red lines” as: no Turkish military activity in Syria; demilitarization of the Syrian side of the Golan; security for Syria’s Druze community; and limits on certain Syrian strategic weapons systems.  These would include ground-based air-defense systems, missiles, armed drones and military aviation infrastructure such as radar networks.

On August 18, shortly after a Turkish delegation visited Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase, Israel carried out airstrikes on the facility.  Israel said the action was intended to prevent an impending Turkish military deployment there.

Damascus condemned the attack as a violation of Syrian sovereignty, arguing that Syria was entitled to rebuild its armed forces and ally with whatever foreign partner it chooses. Meanwhile the US, in the person of Tom Barrack, has been trying to establish a deconfliction process among Israel, Syria and Turkey.

Barrack, whose official title is lengthy and perhaps a trifle excessive (he is currently US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Presidential Envoy for Syria and Iraq) described the Abu al-Duhur strike as an “unnecessary escalation” that did not advance regional stability.


His increasingly critical stance towards Israeli policy in Syria has itself attracted criticism, particularly following recent remarks on Israel’s military stance in Syria and equivocal statements, later clarified, about the Golan Heights.

Russia’s loss of exclusive military control at Tartus and Hmeimim changes the geopolitical landscape.  For roughly 55 years, a Soviet/Russian military presence on the Syrian coast has been part of Israel's strategic environment.  The Soviet Union was one of Israel's principal military adversaries during the Cold War; Putin's Russia subsequently became a partner of sorts in managing the Syrian battlefield. Now that presence is being reduced to a joint training role under Syrian sovereignty.

For Israel, therefore, this is much more than the closure of two Russian bases. It is evidence of the collapse of the geopolitical system that existed along Israel's northern frontier for half a century.

While Russia’s effective withdrawal from Syria, and therefore from the Middle East as a whole, appears a net positive for Israel diplomatically and militarily, strategically it seems to be fostering the emergence of a Turkish-influenced Syria. 

Turkish military penetration of Syria is a substantially more serious problem than the Russian presence that it is replacing.  For Turkey, close alignment with Damascus offers the prospect of curbing Kurdish autonomy on its border, facilitating refugee returns, winning a large share of Syria’s reconstruction and trade, reopening overland routes to Arab markets, and consolidating Ankara’s regional influence at the expense of rival powers.

          Israel will need to be vigilant.

Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online, 8 September 2026:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-907793


Published in Eurasia Review, 12 September 2026:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/12092026-russia-ditches-its-syrian-bases-oped/

  

Tuesday, 1 September 2026

Disabling Hamas

 Published in the Jerusalem Post, 1 September 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 – a date to circle in your diary.  By then – precisely 90 days since a meeting in Jerusalem on August 17 to discuss the Board of Peace’s plan for Gaza – Hamas should be demobilized and the IDF should have begun withdrawing from the Strip.

            That August 17 meeting brought prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu together with the three-man team of Jared Kushner, Nickolay Mladenov and Sir Tony Blair.  They had just returned from an unprecedented negotiating session in Egypt with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya.  The significance of November 15 lies in what was agreed in Cairo – a handover by Hamas of weaponry and tunnels within 90 days. 

As Kushner told Fox News, following the meeting:  “For Israel we think this is a win-win situation, because if Hamas actually gives over the weapons and the tunnels willingly over the next 60 to 90 days that obviously would be the elimination of a huge security threat for Israel, almost an unthinkable achievement.”

            To advance the Board of Peace’s aim of reconstructing Gaza, the August meeting agreed to set up two working groups.  One would facilitate the disarmament and demilitarization process which, according to a statement from Netanyahu’s office, “both Israel and the Board of Peace are determined should be prompt and completed before any reconstruction happens.”   The second would focus on sanitation, clean water and public health in Gaza.

While Israel has consistently supported the 20-point peace plan produced by US President Donald Trump and endorsed by the Board of Peace, there seemed to be a problem regarding sequencing.  The plan requires both the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, and for a time both Hamas and Israel were asserting that they would indeed act, provided the other party acted first.

Initially the Board of Peace planned to connect incremental disarmament with gradual Israeli withdrawals. The August meeting seems to have established a way through the impasse.  It now seems there will be no IDF withdrawal until Hamas has disarmed. The IDF’s withdrawal is linked to agreed standards, milestones, and timeframes as the​ International Stabilization Force​ (ISF​) establishes control and stability, although an Israeli security perimeter may remain until Gaza is judged secure.

​Under the UN-endorsed Trump peace plan, the ISF is envisaged as a temporary multinational security force, operating alongside Israel, Egypt, and a newly trained and vetted Palestinian police force.  Its mandate includes helping to secure borders, supporting Gaza’s demilitarization, dismantling military and terrorist infrastructure, permanently decommissioning non-state armed groups’ weapons, and protecting civilians.

At Israel’s request, the parties agreed that in the initial stage of disarmament Hamas’s weapons would not be turned over to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.

          Why did Israel make this a condition?  Because the National Committee is a wholly Palestinian body – and even though it is specifically apolitical, Israel was taking no chances.   Concerned principally with civil administration, it is led by Dr. Ali Shaath, a civil engineer and former deputy minister, and composed of independent Palestinian technocrats and experts. 

Israel and the US are reported to have agreed that Hamas weapons surrendered during the opening phase would be placed under the control of the ISF for destruction.  Maj.-Gen. Jasper Jeffers, the US commander of the ISF, would oversee the process.  Precise operational details and sequencing remain for the moment unresolved.

​However the viability of the ISF as a credible military force is far from assured.  Five countries have made provisional commitments to provide troops to the ISF:  Albania, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Morocco.  These commitments are at different levels of firmness, and some have subsequently been delayed or narrowed.

Indonesia offered up to 8,000 troops but subsequently put the commitment on indefinite hold. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev publicly committed the country to fully supporting the ISF.  Subsequent reports, however, indicate that Kazakhstan does not envisage its contribution as a combat contingent, but primarily as a humanitarian component, including medical units and a field hospital. 

As for Kosovo and Albania, though they both committed to contributing troops, as yet no figures for their contingents have been released and no troops have been sent.

On  August 6 Uganda’s parliament approved the potential deployment of Ugandan forces to Gaza as part of the US-backed ISF, if required. The size, timing, command arrangements, and final operational deployment of any Ugandan contingent have not been publicly settled.  Burundi​,​ too, has been engaged in active preliminary discussions – including a reported pre-deployment site survey – but has not publicly made a final commitment to contribute troops.

 Around the time of the August 17 meeting, senior military officers from Uganda and Burundi are reported to have visited the Civil Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) in Kiryat Gat to prepare for the deployment of hundreds of troops in the Gaza Strip as part of the ISF.  They met with officers from the IDF and the US Army, who presented the operational plans to them.

 

In late July, Israel authorized the entry into areas of Gaza outside its control of an
initial multinational contingent of approximately 200 personnel, reportedly from Morocco and Uganda. Despite the international commitments, that appears to be the current extent of the ISF – namely 1% of its projected strength of 20,000 troops. All the same the Board of Peace says recruitment and deployment efforts are "well advanced".

          Meanwhile the ISF is functioning primarily as a command, planning, liaison, force-generation and limited pilot-deployment operation.

The 200 personnel are, among other tasks, reported to be establishing the first ISF headquarters, securing a limited humanitarian zone and preparing the logistics and command infrastructure for subsequent troop arrivals. One report says a 150-person Moroccan military outpost is being constructed in Gaza as an initial facility which will eventually be substantially larger.

There is evidence that the ISF infrastructure is beginning to materialize. A US funding notification reported by Reuters on August 19 commits $200 million for ISF equipment, vehicles and operations, plus about $6 million to adapt US armored vehicles for the force.

Surely the troops themselves will have materialized by November 15.


Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled: "The Board of Peace plan for Gaza: Will it really disempower Hamas?", 1 September 2026:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-907115


Published in Eurasia Review, 5 September 2026:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/05092026-disabling-hamas-oped/