Published in the Jerusalem Post, 3 February 2025
A significant topic of discussion
at this year’s Davos meeting was Iran's nuclear program. The World Economic Forum, founded in 1971, is
an international organization with its headquarters in Geneva,
Switzerland. Its annual meeting in Davos
brings together world leaders from business, politics, academia, and other
sectors to discuss pressing global issues.
The 2025 meeting took place from January 20 to 24.
On January 22 Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told reporters in Davos that Iran is "pressing the gas pedal" on its enrichment of uranium to near weapons grade. Previously, said Grossi, Iran was producing each month about 7 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. “Now it's above 30 kg, or more than that. So I think this is a clear indication of an acceleration.”
According to the IAEA, about 42 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, if further enriched to 90% is enough in principle for one nuclear bomb. Grossi said Iran currently had about 200 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60%.
He said that although it would take time to install and bring online
the extra uranium-enriching centrifuges necessary to produce weapons-grade
material, nevertheless the acceleration was starting to happen.
Israel and Iran clashed during
the conference. President Herzog was in
Davos and. according to London-based Iran International, the independent Persian-language
TV and news medium, he found himself early on in a slanging match with Javad
Zarif, the Iran regime's representative.
Iran International reports that on
January 21 Herzog was asked by conference interviewer Fareed Zakaria what
message he had to convey to Zarif.
”I’m not sure he's involved any
longer in decision-making in the Iranian leadership,” said Herzog, “even if he
has a title."
Zarif, Iran’s vice-president for strategic
affairs, was outraged. The next day,
participating at a round table discussion, he declared that Herzog is “a nobody
in Israel”.
Herzog riposted with a public
statement, which included: ”Mr. Zarif, I suggest you look in the mirror”.
Zarif came back suggesting that the proof of Herzog’s lack of status was that the International Criminal Court (ICC) had not included him in the arrest warrants it issued against prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity. There the personal tit-for-tat appears to have ended.
However, during his main Davos
speech Herzog called Iran an "evil empire" that spends billions to
finance its military allies.
“This is the strategic issue
above everything,” he said. “Iran is repeatedly investing billions, at the
expense of its citizens, to create a base for terrorism… They continue to rush
towards the bomb, constantly planning terrorist attacks all over the world,
including in our region - especially the Revolutionary Guards [IRGC] … There is
a great danger as long as this regime in Iran remains in place and continues
its efforts…We believe that there should be a clear message from world leaders
to Iran: No more.”
The start of the Davos meeting
coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration as US President, and the
implications of his return to power for the Iranian regime and its nuclear
ambitions occupied many minds.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
suggested Iran must make a first step towards improving relations with
countries in the region and the US, by making it clear it does not aim to
develop nuclear weapons.
Since any such a statement emanating
from the Iranian regime would be a downright falsehood, most of the new Trump
administration was having none of it. The
new Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quoted as saying, "I believe it is
in our national security interest for the UN Security Council to snap back the
sanctions that were suspended under the JCPOA" (that is, the nuclear
deal master-minded by then-President Obama in 2015 and rejected by Trump in his
first term).
Similarly, Trump's choice as the
new US Ambassador to the UN, Elise Stefanik, said during her Senate
confirmation hearing: "Pushing back
on Iran is a top priority. It was a success during President Trump's first term.”
The new US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, was sworn in after Davos had ended. In his letter of congratulations, Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz hinted at potential action against Iran in the “upcoming months”.
“Iran and its partners
continue to threaten... regional and global stability,” wrote Katz. “I am
confident that together we can succeed, creating long-term stability and a
better future for the region.”
New information about Iran’s nuclear
program was revealed on February 1 by the UK’s Daily Telegraph. The National Council of Resistance of Iran
(NCRI) had passed on details of how the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps) have been expanding their weapons program.
It revealed that two sites,
camouflaged as communication satellite launch facilities, have been used to
rush the production of nuclear warheads.
They are both under the control of the regime’s nuclear weapons arm, the
SPND (Organization for Advanced Defense Research).
At the first site, known as the
Shahrud missile site, about 35km from a city of the same name, SPND and IRGC
Aerospace Force experts have been working on producing a nuclear warhead
capable of being fitted to a Ghaem-100, solid-fueled rocket with a range of
3,000km.
Missiles with that range would
allow Iran to launch nuclear strikes deep into Europe from its territory – as
far as Greece. There have been at least three successful launches of the
rocket, which the NCRI says “enhances the regime’s capability to deploy nuclear
weapons”.
A second site, situated around
70km southeast of the city of Semnan, is being used to develop Simorgh
missiles, a weapon based on the North Korean UNHA-1, an 18-metre tall rocket.
Significant portions of the site
are sited underground to conceal the work from intelligence satellites
capturing images of the area. The regime
has been steadily expanding the site since around 2005.
The Jerusalem Post’s senior
military correspondent, Yonah Jeremy Bob, recently reported that some Israeli
and US officials have been indicating that a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear
facilities could be a viable possibility.
Strategists believe that, following Iran’s second missile onslaught on
Israel, Israel’s counterattack on
October 26 destroyed a significant proportion of Iran’s air defenses, leaving
its nuclear sites more vulnerable than they have ever been.
Trump, however, in a recent
interview with the New York Post, refused
to indicate whether he would support pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear
facilities. What he was quite clear
about was that the Islamic Republic “can’t have a nuclear weapon.” He was confident he can cut a deal with Iran
that would stop it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Without exactly saying how, beyond specifying
that ”you have to verify times ten,” he said “there are ways that you can make
it absolutely certain.”
As ever, Trump will do it his way.
Published in the Jerusalem Post, and in the Jerusalem Post online titled: "A strike or deal? Trump will have his way regarding Iran's nuclear program", 3 February 2025:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-840354
Published in the Eurasia Review, 8 February 2025:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/08022025-irans-nuclear-threat-oped/
https://mpc-journal.org/irans-nuclear-threat/
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