Published in the Jerusalem Post, 21 August 2023
The mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is due to expire at the end of August. The Security Council is expected to debate the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border shortly, and to renew UNIFIL’s mandate. As for the situation on the border, it is best described as volatile.
In early May, a tent
appeared more than 100 feet south of the Blue Line, the contentious border
monitored by UNIFIL. UN forces observed
individuals repeatedly crossing from Lebanon into the contested area. By June 17, a second tent was spotted, and
UNIFIL asked the Lebanese army to remove them.
One was taken down, the other stayed.
The unstable situation
along the border is kept under constant review. The Lebanese and Israelis hold
a UNIFIL-chaired meeting every five to six weeks to discuss military issues,
including violations along the Blue Line. The arrangements are egg-shell
fragile. No media are allowed; the generals do not shake hands; the food is
provided by the Italian UNIFIL contingent – and, to avoid suspicions of any
sort, even the bottled water is Italian.
UNIFIL spokesman Andrea
Tenenti described the scene as “two sides sitting in a very small room, on very
uncomfortable chairs.”
The fact that the meetings
take place regularly, and that there have been 17 years of relative stability is,
to Tenenti, a sign that neither side has an appetite for conflict. “Both sides
are in a way keen to solve the contentious issues,” he said, “but everyone
wants to solve it in their own way.”
Meanwhile within Lebanon
the Hezbollah organization continues to wield its huge military power in
support of its Iranian paymasters. With
help from Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Hezbollah in engaged
in retrofitting old missiles with guidance systems and building new
precision-guided missiles. In December 2018 Israel discovered and sealed tunnels
dug from Lebanon under the Blue Line for the express purpose of carrying out
attacks within Israel.
Since then Hezbollah has
fired antitank missiles at an Israeli military ambulance, launched a drone at
an Israeli offshore gas platform, and allowed Hamas to fire rockets at Israel
from Hezbollah-controlled areas in Lebanon.
On August 9 a Hezbollah arms truck overturned on the mountainous road leading through the Christian town of Kahale in Lebanon.
To prevent residents from seizing the truck and its contents, Hezbollah personnel on board opened fire, killing a Kahale resident and wounding another. A shoot-out followed, and one Hezbollah member was also killed.
Just a few weeks ago the respected Washington
Institute published a devastatingly frank assessment by its counterterrorism
and intelligence academic expert, Matthew Levitt, concerning the deep-rooted
troubles that are paralyzing Lebanon.
“Let’s be clear,” he
writes, “corruption is at the heart of Lebanon’s economic and political crises.
This economic and political rot is deeply entrenched and is protected by
powerful political bosses across the spectrum… yet no Lebanese party presents a
greater security threat to Lebanon domestically, and to its neighbors in the
region, than Hezbollah – in part because Hezbollah is the de facto militant
enforcer of the corrupt political system from which it and other sectarian
political parties benefit.”
There could be no
greater evidence of Hezbollah’s overwhelming power within the state than its
success in frustrating all attempts to investigate the circumstances
surrounding the devastating explosion in Beirut port in August 2020.
Time and again when
evidence emerged pointing the finger at one or other Hezbollah figure, the
investigation was frustrated. Once the investigating judge was dismissed; at
other times individuals summoned to appear refused to attend the court; time
and again the investigation has been subject to appeals.
It became crystal clear
that the Hezbollah-supporting members of the government were deliberately
thwarting the investigation. With two judges pointing the finger at certain Hezbollah-supporting
ministers and officials, the suspicion must arise that leading national figures
were involved in the circumstances leading to the explosion. Meanwhile the
investigation has stalled, while the UN Human Rights council calls in vain for
its speedy conclusion.
These circumstances mirror the enormously protracted judicial proceedings to establish the facts behind the assassination of Lebanese politician, Rafik Hariri, on February 14, 2005.
The Lebanese population is well aware of the
venality at the heart of its society.
Back in November 2022 the Washington Institute commissioned a poll to
assess the public’s opinion of the situation. Ninety-seven percent of
respondents said the Lebanese government was doing too little in response to
three key economic concerns. First, reduce the level of corruption in economic
and public life. Second, meet people’s needs for an acceptable standard of
living. And third, address the burden of taxes and other obligations in a fair
way.
“Unfortunately,”
observed Levitt, “Lebanese political bosses’ prescription for addressing such
concerns is not political or economic reform, but doubling down on their
respective power and patronage systems.”
Lebanon has been without a president
since Michel Aoun’s term ended on 31 October 2022, with opposing political
blocks unable to agree on a compromise candidate. The presidential vacuum is
compounded by the fact that Lebanon’s government remains in caretaker status.
The last attempt to set
up a presidential election was on June 14.
Neither of the two candidates—Jihad Azour and Suleiman Frangieh—received
sufficient votes in the first round. To
win, a candidate needs a two-thirds majority (86 votes) of the elected
parliamentarians, so a quorum of 86 members of parliament is necessary for a
valid ballot. On 14 June, after the first session members from Hezbollah and its
allied Amal Movement withdrew, leaving parliament without the necessary quorum
and preventing a second round from taking place.
Beset by venality, corruption and self-interest at every level — political, economic and social — and with no obvious means of regeneration, Lebanon teeters on the brink of collapse into chaos.
Published in the Jerusalem Post, and the Jerusalem Post online titled "Lebanon sits on a knife's edge, hovering above disaster" on 21 August 2023:https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-755503
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