Published in the Jerusalem Post, 4 August 2026
On July 8, on the sidelines of the
NATO summit in Ankara, US President Donald Trump had a face-to-face
meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
According to the official Syrian
read-out and US reporting, they discussed strengthening US-Syrian relations,
Syria’s economic recovery, and foreign investment. Following their meeting
Trump announced he was removing Syria from the US list of State Sponsors of
Terrorism, a designation Syria had borne since 1979.
Reuters reported that Trump handed
Sharaa a personal letter during the meeting. The key passages were: "I
promised to remove all barriers stopping you from rebuilding your country, and
very soon, you will finally be able to do so," and "We have US
companies ready to invest in Syria and help make your country greater and more
prosperous than ever before."
Speaking to the media after their
meeting, Trump praised Sharaa in unusually strong terms. He’s: “doing an
unbelievable job in unifying Syria….Syria was a mess…now it's just come
together….He's done a fantastic job." All the indications are that
Trump has decided to adopt post-Assad Syria as a working partner in developing
a reinvigorated Middle East.
One week later, Trump was
entertaining Iraq’s prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, at the White House.
Once again the meeting was notable for its tone. Trump repeatedly praised Zaidi and spoke of their "tremendous chemistry." He made it clear that he regarded Iraq’s new prime minister also as a partner with whom Washington could build a stronger long-term relationship.
The discussion covered expanding
economic relations between the two countries, while both sides endorsed a
series of memoranda of understanding (MoU) involving US participation in Iraq's
oil and gas sector. Zaidi reiterated his government's intention of
bringing all armed groups, including Iran-backed militias, under state control,
while confirming that the remaining US forces in Iraq are expected to complete
their withdrawal by September 30, 2026.
What was not specifically referred
to by either party – and not mentioned either following Trump’s discussion with
Sharaa – was the US-Syria-Iraq plan to revive the historic 500-mile pipeline
from the oilfields of Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the town of Baniyas, on
Syria's Mediterranean coast – a determined effort to reduce Iran’s control of
the Strait of Hormuz.
Tom Barrack, Trump’s ambassador to Turkey and envoy to Syria and Iraq, had been working on the details of the agreement before Zaidi’s visit.
The pipeline was completed in 1952
by Iraq’s Petroleum Company with a capacity of around 300,000 barrels per
day. Baghdad shut the pipeline in the 1980s after Syria sided with Iran
during the Iran-Iraq war.
The pipeline will almost certainly
have to be wholly replaced – a project calculated to last up to three
years.
A glance at the map shows that
reviving the pipeline would give Iraq a strategic alternative to exporting oil
through the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike Gulf exports, shipments through the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline would avoid the Persian Gulf altogether. It would
spare tankers the need to negotiate the strategic Hormuz chokepoint on both
their outbound and return voyages. Oil reaching Syria's Mediterranean coast via
the pipeline could be shipped directly to European markets.
Routing Iraqi oil this way could
cut a tanker's voyage to European refineries by roughly 3,000 nautical miles
and more than a week at sea, saving hundreds of thousands of dollars in normal
shipping costs while avoiding the war-risk insurance and disruption associated
with the Strait of Hormuz.
Although it has clearly been agreed between the parties to keep the resurrection of the historic pipeline low-key, Reuters and other media outlets indicate that the project has advanced well beyond the conceptual stage. It is claimed that the US is officially backing restoration of the 891 km (about 550 mile) long pipeline, and that the US expects American firms to take part in rebuilding the line. Chevron has been widely mentioned as a potential participant, although the company has declined to comment publicly.
Other pipeline projects with
outlets on Syria’s Mediterranean coast are also under consideration, and could
link major energy producers in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar,
directly to Syria’s ports. Indeed, with Syria shorn of its sanctions
and established as a fully-fledged partner, it has the potential to
become a major energy transit hub. It has about 2.5 billion
barrels of proven oil reserves, but some geological estimates suggest its
undiscovered onshore and offshore petroleum resources could ultimately exceed
20 billion barrels.
In February 2026, Chevron signed a
memorandum of understanding with Syria's state-owned petroleum company and
Qatar's Power International Holding to develop the country's first offshore oil
and gas field. Days later, Saudi and American energy companies formed a
consortium to explore four or five oil and gas blocks and rebuild energy
infrastructure in north-east Syria.
Finding gas is, of course, only
the beginning. Syria would ultimately need to sell it. Trump's decision to
remove Syria from the US list of State Sponsors of Terrorism signals that
Washington now regards Sharaa's government as a legitimate partner. That political
endorsement encourages investors who might otherwise have stayed away, and it
makes it much easier to construct pipelines, use Mediterranean export
terminals, attract investment and conclude long-term gas sales contracts with
foreign buyers.
Were Israel to follow Trump’s lead
in considering Syria's potential as a commercial partner, several
hazards would need to be overcome. One is the
strong influence that Turkey, no friend of Israel, exercises on
Sharaa.
Then there is the fact
that Russia has retained a significant military and commercial presence in
Syria. President Vladimir Putin has preserved his strategic
foothold on the eastern Mediterranean, having negotiated continued access
to Russia’s naval facility at Tartus and its Khmeimim air base near
Latakia. At the same time, according to reliable media reports, a
Russian commercial logistics hub is expected to become operational at Tartus
very soon, handling Russian cargo and providing a maritime link between the
Syrian coast and Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Trump seems determined to enfold both Syria’s Sharaa and Iraq’s al-Zaidi into a close commercial and economic embrace. In Israel, however, both are viewed rather more cautiously. Trust cannot simply be bestowed; it will have to be earned.
Published in the Jerusalem Post and the Jerusalem Post online titled "Trump’s Syria-Iraq pipeline plan aims to weaken Iran’s leverage", 4 August 2026:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-904406
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